Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center run by Medecins sans Frontieres in Herat, Afghanistan (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background Though many studies on COVID have been published to date, data on COVID-19 epidemiology, symptoms, risk factors and severity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICS), such as Afghanistan are sparse. Objective To describe clinical characteristics, severity, and outcomes of patients hospitalized in the MSF COVID-19 treatment center (CTC) in Herat, Afghanistan and to assess risk factors associated with severe outcomes. Methods 1113 patients were included in this observational study between June 2020 and April 2022. Descriptive analysis was performed on clinical characteristics, complications, and outcomes of patients. Univariate description by Cox regression to identify risk factors for an adverse outcome was performed. Adverse outcome was defined as death or transfer to a level 3 intensive care located at another health facility. Finally, factors identified were included in a multivariate Cox survival analysis. Results A total of 165 patients (14.8%) suffered from a severe disease course, with a median time of 6 days (interquartile range 2-11 days) from admission to adverse outcome. In our multivariate model, we identified male gender, age over 50, high O2 flow administered during admission, lymphopenia, anemia and O2 saturation <=93% during the first three days of admission as predictors for a severe disease course (p<0.05). Conclusion Our analysis concluded in a relatively low rate of adverse outcomes of 14.8%. This is possibly related to the fact, that the resources at an MSF-led facility are higher, in terms of human resources as well as supply of drugs and biomedical equipment, including oxygen therapy devices, compared to local hospitals. Predictors for severe disease outcomes were found to be comparable to other settings.