Cost effectiveness analysis of a fixed dose combination pill for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impart a large burden on the global population, especially in lower income countries where affordability limits the use of cardiovascular medicines. A fixed dose combination strategy of at least 2 blood pressure lowering medications and a statin with aspirin in a single pill has been shown to reduce the risk of incident CVD by 38% in primary prevention in a recent meta-analysis. We report the in-trial (median follow-up: 5 years) cost-effectiveness of a fixed dose combination (FDC) pill in different income groups based on data from that meta-analysis. Methods: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: Lower Middle Income Countries (LMIC), Upper Middle Income Countries (UMIC) and High Income Countries (HIC). Country specific costs were obtained for hospitalized events, procedures, and non-study medications (2020 USD). FDC price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. Findings: For the CES-FDC pill versus control the difference in cost was $346 (95% CI: $294-$398) per participant in Lower Middle Income Countries, $838 (95% CI: $781-$895) in Upper Middle Income Countries and $42 (95% CI: -$155 to $239) (cost-neutral) in High Income Countries. During the study period the CES-FDC pill was associated with incremental gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.08) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5767 (95% CI: 5735-$5799), $13,937 (95% CI: $13,893-$14,041) and $700 (95% CI: $662-$738) respectively. In subgroups analyses, the highest 10 years CVD risk subgroup had ICERs of $2033, $7322 and -$6000/QALY. Interpretation: A FDC pill produced at CES costs is cost-neutral in HIC. Governments of LMI and UMI countries should assess these results based on the ICER threshold accepted in their own country and own specific health care priorities but should consider prioritizing this strategy for patients with high 10 years CVD risk as a first step. Funding: Population Health Research Institute.

Impact of Frailty on the Benefits of Dual Pathway Inhibition for the Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in the COMPASS Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with frailty are at higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and bleeding. The objective of this study was to determine whether the effects of rivaroxaban 2.5mg twice daily in addition to low-dose aspirin are similar among frail compared with non-frail patients with chronic atherosclerotic vascular disease. METHODS: In the COMPASS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01776424), patients with chronic atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomized to receive aspirin 100mg daily, aspirin 100mg daily and rivaroxaban 2.5mg twice daily or rivaroxaban 5mg twice daily. In this post hoc analysis, frailty was evaluated by constructing a cumulative deficit index from 37 diseases, signs, and symptoms. The frailty index for each participant was calculated as the proportion of the 37 deficits exhibited, with values >0.2 considered frail. The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. RESULTS: Frailty was present in 13% of the trial population. In non-frail individuals, adding rivaroxaban 2.5mg twice daily to aspirin reduced the primary outcome (HR, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.59-0.80) and mortality (0.75, 0.63-0.90) but increased major bleeding (1.87, 1.51-2.31); however, its effects on the primary outcome (1.06, 0.79-1.42), mortality (1.08, 0.80-1.46) and major bleeding (1.10, 0.71-1.70) were not evident among participants with frailty (respective interaction p-values 0.011, 0.049 and 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: In adults with chronic atherosclerotic vascular disease, the benefit of adding rivaroxaban 2.5mg twice daily to aspirin was not evident in patients with frailty.

Mortality and Morbidity in Adults With Rheumatic Heart Disease.

Importance: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a public health issue in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there are few large studies enrolling individuals from multiple endemic countries. Objective: To assess the risk and predictors of major patient-important clinical outcomes in patients with clinical RHD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, hospital-based, prospective observational study including 138 sites in 24 RHD-endemic LMICs. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were cause-specific mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, stroke, recurrent rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis. This study analyzed event rates by World Bank country income groups and determined the predictors of mortality using multivariable Cox models. Results: Between August 2016 and May 2022, a total of 13 696 patients were enrolled. The mean age was 43.2 years and 72% were women. Data on vital status were available for 12 967 participants (94.7%) at the end of follow-up. Over a median duration of 3.2 years (41 478 patient-years), 1943 patients died (15% overall; 4.7% per patient-year). Most deaths were due to vascular causes (1312 [67.5%]), mainly HF or sudden cardiac death. The number of patients undergoing valve surgery (604 [4.4%]) and HF hospitalization (2% per year) was low. Strokes were infrequent (0.6% per year) and recurrent rheumatic fever was rare. Markers of severe valve disease, such as congestive HF (HR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.50-1.87]; P < .001), pulmonary hypertension (HR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.69]; P < .001), and atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.15-1.46]; P < .001) were associated with increased mortality. Treatment with surgery (HR, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.12-0.44]; P < .001) or valvuloplasty (HR, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.06-0.95]; P = .042) were associated with lower mortality. Higher country income level was associated with lower mortality after adjustment for patient-level factors. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality in RHD is high and is correlated with the severity of valve disease. Valve surgery and valvuloplasty were associated with substantially lower mortality. Study findings suggest a greater need to improve access to surgical and interventional care, in addition to the current approaches focused on antibiotic prophylaxis and anticoagulation.

Predictors of bleeding and thrombotic events among patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 and elevated D-dimer: insights from the ACTION randomized clinical trial.

Therapeutic anticoagulation showed inconsistent results in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and selection of the best patients to use this strategy still a challenge balancing the risk of thrombotic and hemorrhagic outcomes. The present post-hoc analysis of the ACTION trial evaluated the variables independently associated with both bleeding events (major bleeding or clinically relevant non-major bleeding) and the composite outcomes thrombotic events (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, systemic embolism, or major adverse limb events). Variables were assessed one by one with independent logistic regressions and final models were chosen based on Akaike information criteria. The model for bleeding events showed an area under the curve of 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53 to 0.73), while the model for thrombotic events had an area under the curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.79). Non-invasive respiratory support was associated with thrombotic but not bleeding events, while invasive ventilation was associated with both outcomes (Odds Ratio of 7.03 [95 CI% 1.95 to 25.18] for thrombotic and 3.14 [95% CI 1.11 to 8.84] for bleeding events). Beyond respiratory support, creatinine level (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.01 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02 for every 1.0 mg/dL) and history of coronary disease (OR 3.67; 95% CI 1.32 to 10.29) were also independently associated to the risk of thrombotic events. Non-invasive respiratory support, history of coronary disease, and creatinine level may help to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at higher risk of thrombotic complications.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04394377.

Situational analysis of hypertension management at primary health care level in São Paulo, Brazil: population, healthcare professional and health system perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Government-led, population-wide initiatives are crucial for advancing the management of hypertension - a leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. An urban population health initiative was conducted against this backdrop, focussing on hypertension in the primary health system in São Paulo, Brazil. Within the frame of the initiative and under the supervision and leadership of the municipal health authorities, a situational analysis was conducted on the needs in hypertension management, marking the first phase of a Design Thinking process. This article describes the situational analysis process and presents the identified elements to be strengthened considering hypertension diagnosis, treatment and control. METHODS: First, a mixed-methods approach was used, starting with a literature review of municipal hypertension data followed by meetings (N = 20) with the local public health administration to assess health system level components. To investigate activities on hypertension diagnosis, treatment and control, nine primary healthcare units were selected from two districts of São Paulo city- Itaquera and Penha- which received an online form addressed to managers, participated in conversation circles of staff and patients, and underwent shadowing of community health agents. RESULTS: Data gave rise to two main outputs: (i) a patient care journey map; and (ii) a matrix summarizing the identified needs at patient, healthcare professional and health system level for diagnosis, treatment and control of hypertension. Patient awareness and knowledge of hypertension was found to be insufficient and its management needs to be improved. For health professionals, disease awareness, technical training, more time dedicated to patients, and simplified guidelines and clinical decision-making tools for hypertension management were identified as principal needs. The situational analysis found that the healthcare systems efficiency might be improved by establishing defined treatment and care delivery goals with a focus on outcomes and implemented through action plans. CONCLUSIONS: This situational analysis identified several needs related to hypertension control in São Paulo that are in line with global challenges to improve the control of CVD risk factors. Findings were also confirmed locally in an expansion phase of this situational analysis to additional primary care facilities. As a consequence, solutions were designed, promptly taken up and implemented by the municipal health secretariat.

Incidência e preditores de desfechos clínicos em pacientes com fibrilação atrial valvar e não-valvar em uso de antagonistas da vitamina K: evidências de mundo real / Incidence and predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with valvular and non-valvular atrial fibrillation using vitamin K antagonists: real-world evidence

FUNDAMENTOS: A prevenção de acidente vascular encefálico é uma das prioridades no tratamento da fibrilação atrial (FA). Devido ao alto custo dos anticoagulantes diretos, os antagonistas da vitamina K (AVK) representam importante estratégia terapêutica oferecida pelo SUS aos pacientes com FA no Brasil. Entretanto, os preditores de desfechos clínicos relevantes foram pouco estudados no mundo real. O objetivo do estudo foi identificar a incidência e os preditores independentes de morte cardiovascular, eventos tromboembólicos, sangramento maior e não-maior clinicamente relevante, em pacientes com FA tratados com AVK. MÉTODOS: Coorte prospectiva de pacientes com FA recebendo ≥1 ano de varfarina ou femprocumona, incluídos em 2017/2018 e seguidos até 2019. Foram classificados como FA valvar ou não valvar de acordo com as diretrizes vigentes à época. Os desfechos clínicos foram morte cardiovascular, eventos tromboembólicos, sangramento maior e não maior clinicamente relevante, separadamente e como desfecho composto, e adjudicados de forma independente. Foram coletados o tempo na faixa terapêutica (TFT), os escores CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, HAS-BLED e SAMe-TT2R2. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 1.350 pacientes, com idade média de 69,2 (±11,8) anos e 53,6% do sexo feminino, e seguimento de 17 (15-19) meses. A mediana do TFT foi 65%. Prevalência de comorbidades foi elevada e 38,4% apresentavam doença reumática. Incidência anual de eventos tromboembólicos e morte cardiovascular foi 4,4% e preditores foram tromboembolismo prévio (HR 2,12 [IC95% 1,22-3,67], TFT <50% (HR 1,98 [IC95% 1,16-3,37]) e taxa de filtração glomerular (TFG) <45mL/min/1,73m2 (HR 2,76 [IC95% 4,82-1,58]). Sangramento maior e não-maior clinicamente relevante foram 3,24%/ano (IC95% 2,47-4,14), e preditores foram sangramento prévio (HR 2,60 [IC95% 1,47- 4,61]) e prótese valvar mecânica (HR 1,91 [IC95% 1,15-3,15]). A incidência do desfecho composto por eventos tromboembólicos e hemorrágicos foi 8,7%/ano e preditores foram sangramento prévio (HR 1,70 [IC95% 1,07-2,70]), TFT <41% (HR 1,79 [IC95% 1,11-2,86]) e átrio esquerdo >44mm (HR 1,97 [IC95% 3,26-1,19]). A incidência anual de eventos aumentou gradualmente de acordo com pontuações mais altas dos escores de risco CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc e HAS-BLED. Os valores de TFT foram significativamente menores entre os pacientes com ≥3 pontos no escore SAMe-TT2R2. CONCLUSÕES: Tromboembolismo ou sangramento prévios, TFG e TFT reduzidos, prótese valvar mecânica, e átrio esquerdo aumentado foram preditores de desfechos clínicos em pacientes com FA tratados com AVK.

Associations of the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with risk of type 2 diabetes in 127 594 people from 20 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes incidence is controversial. We aimed to evaluate this association in an international cohort with diverse glycaemic index and glycaemic load diets. METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective cohort study of 127 594 adults aged 35-70 years from 20 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. The glycaemic index and the glycaemic load were estimated on the basis of the intake of seven categories of carbohydrate-containing foods. Participants were categorised into quintiles of glycaemic index and glycaemic load. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariable Cox Frailty models with random intercepts for study centre were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 11·8 years (IQR 9·0-13·0), 7326 (5·7%) incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. In multivariable adjusted analyses, a diet with a higher glycaemic index was significantly associated with a higher risk of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·15 [95% CI 1·03-1·29]). Participants in the highest quintile of the glycaemic load had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·21, 95% CI 1·06-1·37). The glycaemic index was more strongly associated with diabetes among individuals with a higher BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·23 [95% CI 1·08-1·41]) than those with a lower BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; 1·10 [0·87-1·39]; p interaction=0·030). INTERPRETATION: Diets with a high glycaemic index and a high glycaemic load were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a multinational cohort spanning five continents. Our findings suggest that consuming low glycaemic index and low glycaemic load diets might prevent the development of type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.

Tobacco use and risk of acute stroke in 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE study: a case­control study

BACKGROUND Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. METHODS The INTERSTROKE study is a case­control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). FINDINGS Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46­1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61­2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00­1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24­4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1­22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63­2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55­2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50­1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79­3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69­2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59­2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60­2.50). INTERPRETATION There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. FUNDING The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.

Impact of genetic background as a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: A protocol for a nationwide genetic case-control (CV-GENES) study in Brazil.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) represents the leading cause of death worldwide, and individual screening should be based on behavioral, metabolic, and genetic profile derived from data collected in large population-based studies. Due to the polygenic nature of ASCVD, we aimed to assess the association of genomics with ASCVD risk and its impact on the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or peripheral artery thrombotic-ischemic events at population level. CardioVascular Genes (CV-GENES) is a nationwide, multicenter, 1:1 case-control study of 3,734 patients in Brazil. Inclusion criterion for cases is the first occurrence of one of the ASCVD events. Individuals without known ASCVD will be eligible as controls. A core lab will perform the genetic analyses through low-pass whole genome sequencing and whole exome sequencing. In order to estimate the independent association between genetic polymorphisms and ASCVD, a polygenic risk score (PRS) will be built through a hybrid approach including effect size of each Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP), number of effect alleles observed, sample ploidy, total number of SNPs included in the PRS, and number of non-missing SNPs in the sample. In addition, the presence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants will be screened in 8 genes (ABCG5, ABCG8, APOB, APOE, LDLR, LDLRAP1, LIPA, PCSK9) associated with atherosclerosis. Multiple logistic regression will be applied to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and population attributable risks will be calculated. Clinical trial registration: This study is registered in clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05515653).

Tobacco use and risk of acute stroke in 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE study: a case-control study.

Background: Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. Methods: The INTERSTROKE study is a case-control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). Findings: Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46-1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61-2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00-1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24-4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1-22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63-2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55-2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50-1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79-3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59-2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60-2.50). Interpretation: There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.

Variations in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation, and in the strength of its association with ischemic stroke, in countries with different income levels: INTERSTROKE case-control study

BACKGROUND: The contribution of atrial fibrillation (AF) to the etiology and burden of stroke may vary by country income level. AIMS: We examined differences in the prevalence of AF and described variations in the magnitude of the association between AF and ischemic stroke by country income level. METHODS: In the INTERSTROKE case­control study, participants with acute first ischemic stroke were recruited across 32 countries. We included 10,363 ischemic stroke cases and 10,333 community or hospital controls who were matched for age, sex, and center. Participants were grouped into high-income (HIC), upper-middle-income (subdivided into two groups­UMIC-1 and UMIC-2), and lower-middle-income (LMIC) countries, based on gross national income. We evaluated the risk factors for AF overall and by country income level, and evaluated the association of AF with ischemic stroke. RESULTS: AF was documented in 11.9% (n = 1235) of cases and 3.2% (n = 328) of controls. Compared to HIC, the prevalence of AF was significantly lower in UMIC-2 (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29­0.41) and LMIC (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41­0.60) on multivariable analysis. Hypertension, female sex, valvular heart disease, and alcohol intake were stronger risk factors for AF in lower-income countries, and obesity a stronger risk factor in higher-income countries. The magnitude of association between AF and ischemic stroke was significantly higher in lower-income countries compared to higher-income countries. The population attributable fraction for AF and stroke varied by region and was 15.7% (95% CI 13.7­17.8) in HIC, 14.6% (95% CI 12.3­17.1) in UMIC-1, 5.7% (95% CI 4.9­6.7) in UMIC-2, and 6.3% (95% CI 5.3­7.3) in LMIC. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for AF vary by country income level. AF contributes to stroke burden to a greater extent in higher-income countries than in lower-income countries, due to a higher prevalence and despite a lower magnitude of odds ratio.

Variations in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation, and in the strength of its association with ischemic stroke, in countries with different income levels: INTERSTROKE case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of atrial fibrillation (AF) to the etiology and burden of stroke may vary by country income level. AIMS: We examined differences in the prevalence of AF and described variations in the magnitude of the association between AF and ischemic stroke by country income level. METHODS: In the INTERSTROKE case-control study, participants with acute first ischemic stroke were recruited across 32 countries. We included 10,363 ischemic stroke cases and 10,333 community or hospital controls who were matched for age, sex, and center. Participants were grouped into high-income (HIC), upper-middle-income (subdivided into two groups-UMIC-1 and UMIC-2), and lower-middle-income (LMIC) countries, based on gross national income. We evaluated the risk factors for AF overall and by country income level, and evaluated the association of AF with ischemic stroke. RESULTS: AF was documented in 11.9% (n = 1235) of cases and 3.2% (n = 328) of controls. Compared to HIC, the prevalence of AF was significantly lower in UMIC-2 (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.41) and LMIC (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41-0.60) on multivariable analysis. Hypertension, female sex, valvular heart disease, and alcohol intake were stronger risk factors for AF in lower-income countries, and obesity a stronger risk factor in higher-income countries. The magnitude of association between AF and ischemic stroke was significantly higher in lower-income countries compared to higher-income countries. The population attributable fraction for AF and stroke varied by region and was 15.7% (95% CI 13.7-17.8) in HIC, 14.6% (95% CI 12.3-17.1) in UMIC-1, 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.7) in UMIC-2, and 6.3% (95% CI 5.3-7.3) in LMIC. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for AF vary by country income level. AF contributes to stroke burden to a greater extent in higher-income countries than in lower-income countries, due to a higher prevalence and despite a lower magnitude of odds ratio.

Risk factors for recognized and unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection: a seroepidemiologic analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

There are limited data on individual risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection (including unrecognized infection). In this seroepidemiologic substudy of an ongoing prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults, participants were thoroughly characterized pre-pandemic. The SARS-CoV-2 infection was ascertained by serology. Among 8,719 participants from 11 high-, middle-, and low-income countries, 3,009 (35%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Characteristics independently associated with seropositivity were younger age (odds ratio, OR; 95% confidence interval, CI, per five-year increase: 0.95; 0.91-0.98) and body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.01-1.34). Smoking (as compared with never smoking, OR, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.70-0.97) and COVID-19 vaccination (OR, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.60-0.82) were associated with a reduced risk of seropositivity. Among seropositive participants, 83% were unaware of having been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Seropositivity and a lack of awareness of infection were more common in lower-income countries. The COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including recognized and unrecognized infections). Overweight or obesity is an independent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Infection and lack of infection awareness are more common in lower-income countries.IMPORTANCEIn this large, international study, evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was obtained by testing blood specimens from 8,719 community-dwelling adults from 11 countries. The key findings are that (i) the large majority (83%) of community-dwelling adults from several high-, middle-, and low-income countries with blood test evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection were unaware of this infection-especially in lower-income countries; and (ii) overweight/obesity predisposes to SARS-CoV-2 infection, while COVID-19 vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These observations are not attributable to other individual characteristics, highlighting the importance of the COVID-19 vaccination to prevent not only severe infection but possibly any infection. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which overweight/obesity might increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

An Intersectoral Approach to Hypertension Care: Solutions for Improving Blood Pressure Control in São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the leading risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and a major public health issue worldwide. In Brazil, it affects approximately 52.5% of the adult population. We describe the solutions package and the impact of a population health initiative in São Paulo city, following the CARDIO4Cities approach for the management of cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Using a design thinking approach, interventions were developed with a coalition of local and international stakeholders to address needs of patients, healthcare professionals, and the health system. The resulting solution package was checked to comply with guidelines for non-communicable disease and hypertension management. Clinical impact was measured by extracting the hypertension cascade of care-monitored, diagnosis, treatment, and control-from medical records. RESULTS: Under the leadership of the municipal health authorities, nine solutions were piloted and scaled across the city. Solutions conform with local and international best-practices. Between October 2017 and December 2021, 11,406 patient records were analyzed. Results showed a 40% increase in monitored patients (patients with at least one blood pressure, BP, measurement); reduced proportions of patients diagnosed among those with available BP measurements (72%-53%) and treated among diagnosed (93%-85%); and an improvement in controlled patients among those receiving treatment (16%-27%). CONCLUSIONS: The solution package described in this study was correlated with increased BP control. The implementation methodology and results add to the body of real-world evidence supporting population health implementation science in Brazil and beyond.

Safety and efficacy of factor XIa inhibition with milvexian for secondary stroke prevention (AXIOMATIC-SSP): a phase 2, international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial.

BACKGROUND: People with factor XI deficiency have lower rates of ischaemic stroke than the general population and infrequent spontaneous bleeding, suggesting that factor XI has a more important role in thrombosis than in haemostasis. Milvexian, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of activated factor XI, added to standard antiplatelet therapy, might reduce the risk of non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke without increasing the risk of bleeding. We aimed to estimate the dose-response of milvexian for recurrent ischaemic cerebral events and major bleeding in patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). METHODS: AXIOMATIC-SSP was a phase 2, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial done at 367 hospitals in 27 countries. Eligible participants aged 40 years or older, with acute (<48 h) ischaemic stroke or high-risk TIA, were randomly assigned by a web-based interactive response system in a 1:1:1:1:1:2 ratio to receive one of five doses of milvexian (25 mg once daily, 25 mg twice daily, 50 mg twice daily, 100 mg twice daily, or 200 mg twice daily) or matching placebo twice daily for 90 days. All participants received clopidogrel 75 mg daily for the first 21 days and aspirin 100 mg daily for the first 90 days. Investigators, site staff, and participants were masked to treatment assignment. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of ischaemic stroke or incident covert brain infarct on MRI at 90 days, assessed in all participants allocated to treatment who completed a follow-up MRI brain scan, and the primary analysis assessed the dose-response relationship with Multiple Comparison Procedure-Modelling (MCP-MOD). The main safety outcome was major bleeding at 90 days, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03766581) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (2017-005029-19). FINDINGS: Between Jan 27, 2019, and Dec 24, 2021, 2366 participants were randomly allocated to placebo (n=691); milvexian 25 mg once daily (n=328); or twice-daily doses of milvexian 25 mg (n=318), 50 mg (n=328), 100 mg (n=310), or 200 mg (n=351). The median age of participants was 71 (IQR 62-77) years and 859 (36%) were female. At 90 days, the estimates of the percentage of participants with either symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarcts were 16·8 (90·2% CI 14·5-19·1) for placebo, 16·7 (14·8-18·6) for 25 mg milvexian once daily, 16·6 (14·8-18·3) for 25 mg twice daily, 15·6 (13·9-17·5) for 50 mg twice daily, 15·4 (13·4-17·6) for 100 mg twice daily, and 15·3 (12·8-19·7) for 200 mg twice daily. No significant dose-response was observed among the five milvexian doses for the primary composite efficacy outcome. Model-based estimates of the relative risk with milvexian compared with placebo were 0·99 (90·2% CI 0·91-1·05) for 25 mg once daily, 0·99 (0·87-1·11) for 25 mg twice daily, 0·93 (0·78-1·11) for 50 mg twice daily, 0·92 (0·75-1·13) for 100 mg twice daily, and 0·91 (0·72-1·26) for 200 mg twice daily. No apparent dose-response was observed for major bleeding (four [1%] of 682 participants with placebo, two [1%] of 325 with milvexian 25 mg once daily, two [1%] of 313 with 25 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 325 with 50 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 306 with 100 mg twice daily, and five [1%] of 344 with 200 mg twice daily). Five treatment-emergent deaths occurred, four of which were considered unrelated to the study drug by the investigator. INTERPRETATION: Factor XIa inhibition with milvexian, added to dual antiplatelet therapy, did not substantially reduce the composite outcome of symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarction and did not meaningfully increase the risk of major bleeding. Findings from our study have informed the design of a phase 3 trial of milvexian for the prevention of ischaemic stroke in patients with acute ischaemic stroke or TIA. FUNDING: Bristol Myers Squibb and Janssen Research & Development.

Cardiovascular Safety of Azithromycin in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Prespecified Pooled Analysis of the COALITION I and COALITION II Randomized Clinical Trials.

The cardiovascular safety from azithromycin in the treatment of several infectious diseases has been challenged. In this prespecified pooled analysis of 2 multicenter randomized clinical trials, we aimed to assess whether the use of azithromycin might lead to corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation or clinically relevant ventricular arrhythmias. In the COALITION COVID Brazil I trial, 667 patients admitted with moderate COVID-19 were randomly allocated to hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, or standard of care. In the COALITION COVID Brazil II trial, 447 patients with severe COVID-19 were randomly allocated to hydroxychloroquine alone versus hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin. The principal end point for the present analysis was the composite of death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or ventricular arrhythmias. The addition of azithromycin to hydroxychloroquine did not result in any prolongation of the QTc interval (425.8 ± 3.6 ms vs 427.9 ± 3.9 ms, respectively, mean difference -2.1 ms, 95% confidence interval -12.5 to 8.4 ms, p = 0.70). The combination of azithromycin plus hydroxychloroquine compared with hydroxychloroquine alone did not result in increased risk of the primary end point (proportion of patients with events at 15 days 17.2% vs 16.0%, respectively, hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.49, p = 0.65). In conclusion, in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 already receiving standard-of-care management (including hydroxychloroquine), the addition of azithromycin did not result in the prolongation of the QTc interval or increase in cardiovascular adverse events. Because azithromycin is among the most commonly prescribed antimicrobial agents, our results may inform clinical practice. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT04322123, NCT04321278.

Application of ventilator-associated events (VAE) in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) notified in Brazil (IMPACTO MR-PAV): a protocol for a cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Certain criteria for ventilator-associated events (VAE) definition might influence the type of an event, its detection rate and consequently the resource expenditure in intensive care unit. The Impact of Infections by Antimicrobial-Resistant Microorganisms - Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia (IMPACTO MR-PAV) aims to evaluate the incidence and diagnostic accuracy of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) using the current criteria for VAP surveillance in Brazil versus the VAE criteria defined by the US National Healthcare Safety Network-Center for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) criteria. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will be conducted in around 15 centres across Brazil from October 2022 to December 2023. Trained healthcare professionals will collect data and compare the incidence of VAP using both the current criteria for VAP surveillance in Brazil and the VAE criteria defined by the CDC. The accuracy of the two criteria for identifying VAP will also be analysed. It will also characterise other events associated with mechanical ventilation (ventilator-associated condition, infection-related ventilator-associated complication) and adjudicate VAP reported to the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) using current epidemiological diagnostic criteria. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board under the number 52354721.0.1001.0070. The study's primary outcome measure will be the incidence of VAP using the two different surveillance criteria, and the secondary outcome measures will be the accuracy of the two criteria for identifying VAP and the adjudication of VAP reported to ANVISA. The results will contribute to the improvement of VAP surveillance in Brazil and may have implications for other countries that use similar criteria. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05589727; Clinicaltrials.gov.

Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries.

AIMS: To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison). CONCLUSION: A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease at Community Clinics in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil: Results from the Epidemiological Information Study of Communities.

Background: Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a major challenge, especially in communities of low- and middle-income countries with poor medical assistance influenced by distinct local, financial, infrastructural, and resource-related factors. Objective: This a community-based study aimed to determine the proportion and prevalence of uncontrolled cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) in Brazilian communities. Methods: The EPICO study was an observational, cross-sectional, and community clinic-based study. Subjects were living in Brazilian communities and were of both sexes and ≥18 years old, without a history of a stroke or myocardial infarction but presenting at least one of the following cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolemia. The study was carried out in Brazil, including 322 basic health units (BHU) in 32 cities. Results: A total of 7,724 subjects with at least one CRF were evaluated, and one clinical visit was performed. Mean age was 59.2 years-old (53.7% were >60 years old). A total of 66.7% were women. Of the total, 96.2% had hypertension, 78.8% had diabetes mellitus type II, 71.1% had dyslipidemia, and 76.6% of patients were overweight/obese. Controlled hypertension (defined by <130/80 mmHg or <140/90 mmHg) was observed in 34.9% and 55.5% patients among respective criteria, the rates of controlled blood glucose in patients taking antidiabetic medications was 29.5%, and among those with documented dyslipidemia who received any lipid-lowering medication, only 13.9% had LDL-c on target. For patients presenting three CRF less than 1.9% had LDL-c < 100 mg/dL once their BP and blood glucose were on target. High education level as associated with blood pressure (BP) target of less than 130 / 80mm Hg. The glucose and LDL-c levels on target were associated with the presence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: In Brazilian community clinics, regarding most patients in primary prevention, the CRF such as BP, blood glucose, and lipid levels are poorly controlled, with a majority of patients not achieving guidelines/recommendations.