ABSTRACT
BackgroundReported rates of invasive pneumococcal disease were markedly lower than normal during the 2020/2021 winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the first year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known about rates of carriage of pneumococcus among adults during this period. MethodsBetween October 2020-August 2021, couples living in the Greater New Haven Area were enrolled if both individuals were aged 60 years and above and did not have any individuals under the age of 60 years living in the household. Saliva samples and questionnaires regarding social activities and contacts and medical history were obtained every 2 weeks for a period of 10 weeks. Following culture-enrichment, extracted DNA was tested using qPCR for pneumococcus-specific sequences piaB and lytA. Individuals were considered positive for pneumococcal carriage when Ct-values for piaB were less than 40. ResultsWe collected 567 saliva samples from 95 individuals aged 60 years and above (47 household pairs and one singleton). Of those, 7.1% of samples tested positive for pneumococcus by either piaB only (n=6) or both piaB and lytA (n=34), representing 22/95 (23.2%) individuals and 16/48 (33.3%) households over the course of the 10-week study period. Study participants attended few social events during this period. However, many participants continued to have regular contact with children. Individuals who had regular contact with preschool and school aged children (i.e., 2-9 year olds) had a higher prevalence of carriage (15.9% vs 5.4%). ConclusionsDespite COVID-19-related disruptions, a large proportion of older adults carried pneumococcus at least once during the 10-week study period. Prevalence was particularly high among those who had contact with school-aged children, but carriage was not limited to this group.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 pandemic-related shifts in healthcare utilization, in combination with trends in non-COVID-19 disease transmission and NPI use, had clear impacts on infectious and chronic disease hospitalization rates. Using a national healthcare billing database (C19RDB), we estimated the monthly incidence rate ratio of hospitalizations between March 2020 and June 2021 according to 19 ICD-10 diagnostic chapters and 189 subchapters. The majority of hospitalization causes showed an immediate decline in incidence during March 2020. Hospitalizations for diagnoses such as reproductive neoplasms, hypertension, and diabetes returned to pre-pandemic norms in incidence during late 2020 and early 2021, while others, like those for infectious respiratory disease, never returned to pre-pandemic norms. These results are crucial for contextualizing future research, particularly time series analyses, utilizing surveillance and hospitalization data for non-COVID-19 disease. Our assessment of subchapter level primary hospitalization codes offers new insight into trends among less frequent causes of hospitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Reported COVID-19 cases and deaths provide a delayed and incomplete picture of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States (US). Accurate estimates of both the timing and magnitude of infections are needed to characterize viral transmission dynamics and better understand COVID- 19 disease burden. We estimated time trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and other COVID-19 outcomes for every county in the US, from the first reported COVID-19 case in January 13, 2020 through January 1, 2021. To do so we employed a Bayesian modeling approach that explicitly accounts for reporting delays and variation in case ascertainment, and generates daily estimates of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections on the basis of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths. The model is freely available as the covidestim R package. Nationally, we estimated there had been 49 million symptomatic COVID-19 cases and 400,718 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2020, and that 27% of the US population had been infected. The results also demonstrate wide county-level variability in the timing and magnitude of incidence, with local epidemiological trends differing substantially from state or regional averages, leading to large differences in the estimated proportion of the population infected by the end of 2020. Our estimates of true COVID-19 related deaths are consistent with independent estimates of excess mortality, and our estimated trends in cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection are consistent with trends in seroprevalence estimates from available antibody testing studies. Reconstructing the underlying incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections across US counties allows for a more granular understanding of disease trends and the potential impact of epidemiological drivers.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19. MethodsWe evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data. ResultsThere were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I. ConclusionsExcess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity. RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSDeaths due to the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, have been increasing sharply in the United States since mid-March. However, efforts to track the severity and public health impact of COIVD-19 in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. As a result, the reported number of deaths likely represents an underestimate of the true burden. Added Value of this studyWe evaluate increases in deaths due to pneumonia across the United States and relate these increases to the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 in different states and evaluate the trajectories of these increases in relation to the volume of testing and to indicators of COVID-19 morbidity. This provides a more complete picture of mortality due to COVID-19 in the US and demonstrates how delays in testing led to many coronavirus deaths not being counted in certain states. Implications of all the available evidenceThe number of deaths reported to be due to COVID-19 represents just a fraction of the deaths linked to the pandemic. Monitoring trends in deaths due to pneumonia and all-causes provides a more complete picture of the tool of the disease.
