ABSTRACT
Global and regional population projections produced by the United Nations are evaluated and compared with actual population estimates. While general observations pertaining to the global level are made, the focus is on Latin America for selected years from 1950 to 1980. It is found that "the quality of population projections improved since 1950. In addition, short-term projections are found to be relatively more accurate than those for the long-term.... In the medium- or long-term projections, at least in the Latin American case, the assumptions regarding mortality were far from the real situation. The important factors in the projections are found to be in the order of base population, fertility and mortality."
Subject(s)
Evaluation Studies as Topic , Fertility , Forecasting , Mortality , Population Density , Population Dynamics , Statistics as Topic , Americas , Caribbean Region , Central America , Demography , Developed Countries , Developing Countries , Latin America , North America , Population , Research , South America , Time FactorsABSTRACT
"The purpose of this paper is to compare population projections prepared by the United Nations in the 1950's with the actual estimates for the countries and the regions of Central (including Mexico) and South America. The comparison is made in terms of (a) base population used in the projections (1950), (b) the projected and the estimated population for 1980, and (c) the projected and the estimated rates (including rates of growth) and numbers of births, deaths and migration over the 30 year period of the projections (1950-1980)." (SUMMARY IN ENG)