ABSTRACT
Identifying the dissemination patterns and impacts of a virus of economic or health importance during a pandemic is crucial, as it informs the public on policies for containment in order to reduce the spread of the virus. In this study, we integrated genomic and travel data to investigate the emergence and spread of the B.1.1.318 and B.1.525 variants of interest in Nigeria and the wider Africa region. By integrating travel data and phylogeographic reconstructions, we find that these two variants that arose during the second wave emerged from within Africa, with the B.1.525 from Nigeria, and then spread to other parts of the world. Our results show how regional connectivity in downsampled regions like Africa can often influence virus transmissions between neighbouring countries. Our findings demonstrate the power of genomic analysis when combined with mobility and epidemiological data to identify the drivers of transmission in the region, generating actionable information for public health decision makers in the region.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundMonitoring the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants is an important public health objective. Travel restrictions, aimed to prevent viral spread, have major economic consequences and unclear effectiveness despite considerable research. We investigated the introduction and establishment of the Gamma variant in New York City (NYC) in 2021. MethodsWe performed phylogeographic analysis on 15,967 Gamma sequences available on GISAID and sampled between March 10th through May 1st, 2021, to identify geographic sources of Gamma lineages introduced into NYC. We identified locally circulating Gamma transmission clusters and inferred the timing of their establishment in NYC. FindingsWe identified 16 phylogenetically-distinct Gamma clusters established in NYC (cluster sizes ranged 2-108 genomes). Most of the NYC clusters were introduced from Florida and Illinois; only one was introduced from outside the United States (US). By the time the first Gamma case was reported by genomic surveillance in NYC on March 10th, the majority (57%) of circulating Gamma lineages had already been established in the city for at least two weeks. InterpretationDespite the expansion of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in NYC, there was a substantial gap between Gamma variant introduction and establishment in January/February 2021, and its identification by genomic surveillance in March 2021. Although travel from Brazil to the US was restricted from May 2020 through the end of the study period, this restriction did not prevent Gamma from becoming established in NYC as most introductions occurred from domestic locations.
ABSTRACT
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern has prompted the need for near real-time genomic surveillance to inform public health interventions. In response to this need, the global scientific community, through unprecedented effort, has sequenced and shared over 10 million genomes through GISAID, as of May 2022. This extraordinarily high sampling rate provides a unique opportunity to track the evolution of the virus in near real-time. Here, we present outbreak.info, a platform that currently tracks over 40 million combinations of PANGO lineages and individual mutations, across over 7,000 locations, to provide insights for researchers, public health officials, and the general public. We describe the interpretable and opinionated visualizations in the variant and location focussed reports available in our web application, the pipelines that enable the scalable ingestion of heterogeneous sources of SARS-CoV-2 variant data, and the server infrastructure that enables widespread data dissemination via a high performance API that can be accessed using an R package. We present a case study that illustrates how outbreak.info can be used for genomic surveillance and as a hypothesis generation tool to understand the ongoing pandemic at varying geographic and temporal scales. With an emphasis on scalability, interactivity, interpretability, and reusability, outbreak.info provides a template to enable genomic surveillance at a global and localized scale.
ABSTRACT
Regional connectivity and land-based travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions such as Europe. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the wider Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding from Europe in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the period travel restrictions were in place. We show that land-based travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the period of travel restrictions. Consistently, high regional connectivity and land-based travel also disproportionately drove Jordans export risk to other Middle Eastern countries. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land-based travel as drivers of viral transmission in the Middle East. This demonstrates that strategies aiming to stop or slow the spread of viral introductions (including new variants) with travel restrictions need to prioritize risk from land-based travel alongside intercontinental air travel to be effective. HighlightsO_LIRegional connectivity drove SARS-CoV-2 introduction risk in Jordan during the period travel restrictions were in place in genomic and travel data. C_LIO_LILand-based travel rather than air travel disproportionately drove introduction risk during travel restrictions. C_LIO_LIHigh regional connectivity disproportionately drove Jordans export risk, with significant contribution from land-based travel. C_LIO_LIRegional transmission dynamics were underestimated in genomic data due to unrepresentative sampling. C_LI
ABSTRACT
To combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have been conducting research at breakneck speeds, producing over 52,000 peer-reviewed articles within the first year. To address the challenge in tracking the vast amount of new research located in separate repositories, we developed outbreak.info Research Library, a standardized, searchable interface of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 resources. Unifying metadata from sixteen repositories, we assembled a collection of over 350,000 publications, clinical trials, datasets, protocols, and other resources as of October 2022. We used a rigorous schema to enforce consistency across different sources and resource types and linked related resources. Researchers can quickly search the latest research across data repositories, regardless of resource type or repository location, via a search interface, public API, and R package. Finally, we discuss the challenges inherent in combining metadata from scattered and heterogeneous resources and provide recommendations to streamline this process to aid scientific research.
ABSTRACT
As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundSuccessful containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus of the COVID-19 pandemic, have involved widespread population testing that identifies infections early and enables rapid contact tracing. In this study, we developed a rapid and inexpensive RT- qPCR testing pipeline for population-level SARS-CoV-2 detection, and used this pipeline to establish a clinical laboratory dedicated to COVID-19 testing at the University of California San Diego (UCSD) with a processing capacity of 6,000 samples per day and next-day result turnaround times. Methods and findingsUsing this pipeline, we screened 6,786 healthcare workers and first responders, and 21,220 students, faculty, and staff from UCSD. Additionally, we screened 6,031 preschool-grade 12 students and staff from public and private schools across San Diego County that remained fully or partially open for in-person teaching during the pandemic. Between April 17, 2020 and February 5, 2021, participants provided 161,582 nasal swabs that were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 752 positive tests were obtained, yielding a test positivity rate of 0.47%. While the presence of symptoms was significantly correlated with higher viral load, most of the COVID-19 positive participants who participated in symptom surveys were asymptomatic at the time of testing. The positivity rate among preschool-grade 12 schools that remained open for in-person teaching was similar to the positivity rate at UCSD and lower than that of San Diego County, with the children in private schools being less likely to test positive than the adults at these schools. ConclusionsMost schools across the United States have been closed for in-person learning for much of the 2020-2021 school year, and their safe reopening is a national priority. However, as there are no vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 currently available to the majority of school-aged children, the traditional strategies of mandatory masking, physical distancing, and repeated viral testing of students and staff remain key components of risk mitigation in these settings. The data presented here suggest that the safety measures and repeated testing actions taken by participating healthcare and educational facilities were effective in preventing outbreaks, and that a similar combination of risk-mitigation strategies and repeated testing may be successfully adopted by other healthcare and educational systems.
ABSTRACT
Two mRNA vaccines and one adenovirus-based vaccine against SARS CoV-2 are currently being distributed at scale in the United States. Objective evidence of a specific individuals physiologic response to that vaccine are not routinely tracked but may offer insights into the acute immune response and personal and/or vaccine characteristics associated with that. We explored this possibility using a smartphone app-based research platform developed early in the pandemic that enabled volunteers (38,911 individuals between 25 March 2020 and 4 April 2021) to share their smartwatch and activity tracker data, as well as self-report, when appropriate, any symptoms, COVID-19 test results and vaccination dates and type. Of 4,110 individuals who reported at least one mRNA vaccination dose, 3,312 provided adequate resting heart rate data from the peri-vaccine period for analysis. We found changes in resting heart rate with respect to an individual baseline increased the days after vaccination, peaked on day 2, and returned to normal on day 6, with a much stronger effect after second dose with respect to first dose (average changes 1.6 versus 0.5 beats per minute). The changes were more pronounced for individuals who received the Moderna vaccine (on both doses), those who previously tested positive to COVID-19 (on dose 1), and for individuals aged <40 years, after adjusting for possible confounding factors. Taking advantage of continuous passive data from personal sensors could potentially enable the identification of a digital fingerprint of inflammation, which might prove useful as a surrogate for vaccine-induced immune response.
ABSTRACT
The emergence of the early COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected, due to a lack of adequate testing and mitigation efforts. The city of New Orleans, Louisiana experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with the annual Mardi Gras festival, which went ahead without precautions. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large, crowded events may have accelerated early transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana initially had limited sequence diversity compared to other U.S. states, and that one successful introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras and that the festival dramatically accelerated transmission, eventually leading to secondary localized COVID-19 epidemics throughout the Southern U.S.. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate COVID-19 epidemics on a local and regional scale.
ABSTRACT
As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
ABSTRACT
Spatiotemporal bias in genome sequence sampling can severely confound phylogeographic inference based on discrete trait ancestral reconstruction. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes on a global scale, evolutionary reconstructions are hindered by the slow accumulation of sequence divergence over its relatively short transmission history. When confronted with these issues, incorporating additional contextual data may critically inform phylodynamic reconstructions. Here, we present a new approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2, while also including global air transportation data. We demonstrate that including travel history data for each SARS-CoV-2 genome yields more realistic reconstructions of virus spread, particularly when travelers from undersampled locations are included to mitigate sampling bias. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations in the analyses. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts. Although further research is needed to fully examine the performance of our travel-aware phylogeographic analyses with unsampled diversity and to further improve them, they represent multiple new avenues for directly addressing the colossal issue of sample bias in phylogeographic inference.
