Decomposed interaction testing improves detection of genetic modifiers of the relationship of dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake and its plasma biomarkers with hsCRP in the UK Biobank.

Discovery and translation of gene-environment interactions (GxEs) influencing clinical outcomes is limited by low statistical power and poor mechanistic understanding. Molecular omics data may help address these limitations, but their incorporation into GxE testing requires principled analytic approaches. We focused on genetic modification of the established mechanistic link between dietary long-chain omega-3 fatty acid (dN3FA) intake, plasma N3FA (pN3FA), and chronic inflammation as measured by high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). We considered an approach that decomposes the overall genetic effect modification into components upstream and downstream of a molecular mediator to increase the potential to discover gene-N3FA interactions. Simulations demonstrated improved power of the upstream and downstream tests compared to the standard approach when the molecular mediator for many biologically plausible scenarios. The approach was applied in the UK Biobank (N = 188,700) with regression models that used measures of dN3FA (based on fish and fish oil intake), pN3FA (% of total fatty acids measured by nuclear magnetic resonance), and hsCRP. Mediation analysis showed that pN3FA fully mediated the dN3FA-hsCRP main effect relationship. Next, we separately tested modification of the dN3FA-hsCRP ("standard"), dN3FA-pN3FA ("upstream"), and pN3FA-hsCRP ("downstream") associations. The known FADS1-3 locus variant rs174535 reached p = 1.6×10-12 in the upstream discovery analysis, with no signal in the downstream analysis (p = 0.94). It would not have been prioritized based on a naïve analysis with dN3FA exposure and hsCRP outcome (p = 0.097), indicating the value of the decomposition approach. Gene-level enrichment testing of the genome-wide results further prioritized two genes from the downstream analysis, CBLL1 and MICA, with links to immune cell counts and function. In summary, a molecular mediator-focused interaction testing approach enhanced statistical power to identify GxEs while homing in on relevant sub-components of the dN3FA-hsCRP pathway.

Development of electronic health record based algorithms to identify individuals with diabetic retinopathy.

OBJECTIVES: To develop, validate, and implement algorithms to identify diabetic retinopathy (DR) cases and controls from electronic health care records (EHRs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed and validated electronic health record (EHR)-based algorithms to identify DR cases and individuals with type I or II diabetes without DR (controls) in 3 independent EHR systems: Vanderbilt University Medical Center Synthetic Derivative (VUMC), the VA Northeast Ohio Healthcare System (VANEOHS), and Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB). Cases were required to meet 1 of the following 3 criteria: (1) 2 or more dates with any DR ICD-9/10 code documented in the EHR, (2) at least one affirmative health-factor or EPIC code for DR along with an ICD9/10 code for DR on a different day, or (3) at least one ICD-9/10 code for any DR occurring within 24 hours of an ophthalmology examination. Criteria for controls included affirmative evidence for diabetes as well as an ophthalmology examination. RESULTS: The algorithms, developed and evaluated in VUMC through manual chart review, resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.93 for cases and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.91 for controls. Implementation of algorithms yielded similar metrics in VANEOHS (PPV = 0.94; NPV = 0.86) and lower in MGB (PPV = 0.84; NPV = 0.76). In comparison, the algorithm for DR implemented in Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in VUMC yielded similar PPV (0.92) but substantially reduced NPV (0.48). Implementation of the algorithms to the Million Veteran Program identified over 62 000 DR cases with genetic data including 14 549 African Americans and 6209 Hispanics with DR. CONCLUSIONS/DISCUSSION: We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithms at 3 separate healthcare centers, with a minimum PPV of 0.84 and substantially improved NPV than existing automated methods. We strongly encourage independent validation and incorporation of features unique to each EHR to enhance algorithm performance for DR cases and controls.

Multi-omics characterization of type 2 diabetes associated genetic variation.

Discerning the mechanisms driving type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remains a challenge. To this end, we integrated omics information from 16 multi-tissue and multi-ancestry expression, protein, and metabolite quantitative trait loci (QTL) studies and 46 multi-ancestry GWAS for T2D-related traits with the largest, most ancestrally diverse T2D GWAS to date. Of the 1,289 T2D GWAS index variants, 716 (56%) demonstrated strong evidence of colocalization with a molecular or T2D-related trait, implicating 657 cis-effector genes, 1,691 distal-effector genes, 731 metabolites, and 43 T2D-related traits. We identified 773 of these cis- and distal-effector genes using either expression QTL data from understudied ancestry groups or inclusion of T2D index variants enriched in underrepresented populations, emphasizing the value of increasing population diversity in functional mapping. Linking these variants, genes, metabolites, and traits into a network, we elucidated mechanisms through which T2D-associated variation may impact disease risk. Finally, we showed that drugs targeting effector proteins were enriched in those approved to treat T2D, highlighting the potential of these results to prioritize drug targets for T2D. These results represent a leap in the molecular characterization of T2D-associated genetic variation and will aid in translating genetic findings into novel therapeutic strategies.

Variant level heritability estimates of type 2 diabetes in African Americans.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and environmental factors and is associated with an increased risk of cardiorenal complications and mortality. Though disproportionately affected by the condition, African Americans (AA) are largely underrepresented in genetic studies of T2D, and few estimates of heritability have been calculated in this race group. Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data paired with phenotypic data from ~ 19,300 AA participants of the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, Genetics of Hypertension Associated Treatments (GenHAT) study, and the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network, we estimated narrow-sense heritability using two methods: Linkage-Disequilibrium Adjusted Kinships (LDAK) and Genome-Wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA). Study-level heritability estimates adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry ranged from 18% to 34% across both methods. Overall, the current study narrows the expected range for T2D heritability in this race group compared to prior estimates, while providing new insight into the genetic basis of T2D in AAs for ongoing genetic discovery efforts.

Adaptive selection at G6PD and disparities in diabetes complications.

Diabetes complications occur at higher rates in individuals of African ancestry. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDdef), common in some African populations, confers malaria resistance, and reduces hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels by shortening erythrocyte lifespan. In a combined-ancestry genome-wide association study of diabetic retinopathy, we identified nine loci including a G6PDdef causal variant, rs1050828 -T (Val98Met), which was also associated with increased risk of other diabetes complications. The effect of rs1050828 -T on retinopathy was fully mediated by glucose levels. In the years preceding diabetes diagnosis and insulin prescription, glucose levels were significantly higher and HbA1c significantly lower in those with versus without G6PDdef. In the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, participants with G6PDdef had significantly higher hazards of incident retinopathy and neuropathy. At the same HbA1c levels, G6PDdef participants in both ACCORD and the Million Veteran Program had significantly increased risk of retinopathy. We estimate that 12% and 9% of diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy cases, respectively, in participants of African ancestry are due to this exposure. Across continentally defined ancestral populations, the differences in frequency of rs1050828 -T and other G6PDdef alleles contribute to disparities in diabetes complications. Diabetes management guided by glucose or potentially genotype-adjusted HbA1c levels could lead to more timely diagnoses and appropriate intensification of therapy, decreasing the risk of diabetes complications in patients with G6PDdef alleles.

Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Is Suboptimal in People With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction functions may not accurately predict CVD risk in people with HIV. We assessed the performance of 3 CVD risk prediction functions in 2 HIV cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: CVD risk scores were calculated in the Mass General Brigham and Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV cohorts, using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD function, the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) hard coronary heart disease function and the Framingham Heart Study hard CVD function. Outcomes were myocardial infarction or coronary death for FHS hard coronary heart disease function; and myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function. We calculated regression coefficients and assessed discrimination and calibration by sex; predicted to observed risk of outcome was also compared. In the combined cohort of 9412, 158 (1.7%) had a coronary heart disease event, and 309 (3.3%) had a CVD event. Among women, CVD risk was generally underestimated by all 3 risk functions. Among men, CVD risk was underestimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function, but overestimated by the FHS hard coronary heart disease function. Calibration was poor for women using the FHS hard CVD function and for men using all functions. Discrimination in all functions was good for women (c-statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.90) and moderate for men (c-statistics ranging from 0.71 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Established CVD risk prediction functions generally underestimate risk in people with HIV. Differences in model performance by sex underscore the need for both HIV-specific and sex-specific functions. Development of CVD risk prediction models tailored to HIV will enhance care for aging people with HIV.

Polygenic scores for longitudinal prediction of incident type 2 diabetes in an ancestrally and medically diverse primary care physician network: a patient cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic scores (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. METHODS: We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and family history of T2D; (3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; and (4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. RESULTS: PGS was associated with incident T2D in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of the top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk ((PGS-CRS interaction p = 0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Polygenic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in African Americans.

African Americans (AAs) have been underrepresented in polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we integrated genome-wide data from multiple observational studies on type 2 diabetes (T2D), encompassing a total of 101,987 AAs, to train and optimize an AA-focused T2D PRS (PRSAA), using a Bayesian polygenic modeling method. We further tested the score in three independent studies with a total of 7,275 AAs and compared the PRSAA with other published scores. Results show that a 1-SD increase in the PRSAA was associated with 40-60% increase in the odds of T2D (odds ratio [OR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.88; OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.70; and OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) across three testing cohorts. These models captured 1.0-2.6% of the variance (R2) in T2D on the liability scale. The positive predictive values for three calculated score thresholds (the top 2%, 5%, and 10%) ranged from 14 to 35%. The PRSAA, in general, performed similarly to existing T2D PRS. The need remains for larger data sets to continue to evaluate the utility of within-ancestry scores in the AA population.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Development of Portable Electronic Health Record Based Algorithms to Identify Individuals with Diabetic Retinopathy.

Objectives: To develop, validate and implement algorithms to identify diabetic retinopathy (DR) cases and controls from electronic health care records (EHR)s. Methods : We developed and validated EHR-based algorithms to identify DR cases and individuals with type I or II diabetes without DR (controls) in three independent EHR systems: Vanderbilt University Medical Center Synthetic Derivative (VUMC), the VA Northeast Ohio Healthcare System (VANEOHS), and Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB). Cases were required to meet one of three criteria: 1) two or more dates with any DR ICD-9/10 code documented in the EHR, or 2) at least one affirmative health-factor or EPIC code for DR along with an ICD9/10 code for DR on a different day, or 3) at least one ICD-9/10 code for any DR occurring within 24 hours of an ophthalmology exam. Criteria for controls included affirmative evidence for diabetes as well as an ophthalmology exam. Results: The algorithms, developed and evaluated in VUMC through manual chart review, resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.93 for cases and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.97 for controls. Implementation of algorithms yielded similar metrics in VANEOHS (PPV=0.94; NPV=0.86) and lower in MGB (PPV=0.84; NPV=0.76). In comparison, use of DR definition as implemented in Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in VUMC, yielded similar PPV (0.92) but substantially reduced NPV (0.48). Implementation of the algorithms to the Million Veteran Program identified over 62,000 DR cases with genetic data including 14,549 African Americans and 6,209 Hispanics with DR. Conclusions/Discussion: We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithms at three separate health-care centers, with a minimum PPV of 0.84 and substantially improved NPV than existing high-throughput methods. We strongly encourage independent validation and incorporation of features unique to each EHR to enhance algorithm performance for DR cases and controls.

Heterogeneous effects on type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular outcomes of genetic variants and traits associated with fasting insulin.

Hyperinsulinemia is a complex and heterogeneous phenotype that characterizes molecular alterations that precede the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). It results from a complex combination of molecular processes, including insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity, that differ between individuals. To better understand the physiology of hyperinsulinemia and ultimately T2D, we implemented a genetic approach grouping fasting insulin (FI)-associated genetic variants based on their molecular and phenotypic similarities. We identified seven distinctive genetic clusters representing different physiologic mechanisms leading to rising FI levels, ranging from clusters of variants with effects on increased FI, but without increased risk of T2D (non-diabetogenic hyperinsulinemia), to clusters of variants that increase FI and T2D risk with demonstrated strong effects on body fat distribution, liver, lipid, and inflammatory processes (diabetogenic hyperinsulinemia). We generated cluster-specific polygenic scores in 1,104,258 individuals from five multi-ancestry cohorts to show that the clusters differed in associations with cardiometabolic traits. Among clusters characterized by non-diabetogenic hyperinsulinemia, there was both increased and decreased risk of coronary artery disease despite the non-increased risk of T2D. Similarly, the clusters characterized by diabetogenic hyperinsulinemia were associated with an increased risk of T2D, yet had differing risks of cardiovascular conditions, including coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The strongest cluster-T2D associations were observed with the same direction of effect in non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, and non-Hispanic East Asian populations. These genetic clusters provide important insights into granular metabolic processes underlying the physiology of hyperinsulinemia, notably highlighting specific processes that decouple increasing FI levels from T2D and cardiovascular risk. Our findings suggest that increasing FI levels are not invariably associated with adverse cardiometabolic outcomes.

Multi-tissue epigenetic analysis identifies distinct associations underlying insulin resistance and Alzheimer's disease at CPT1A locus.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is a major risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. The mechanisms by which IR predisposes to AD are not well-understood. Epigenetic studies may help identify molecular signatures of IR associated with AD, thus improving our understanding of the biological and regulatory mechanisms linking IR and AD. METHODS: We conducted an epigenome-wide association study of IR, quantified using the homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) and adjusted for body mass index, in 3,167 participants from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) without type 2 diabetes at the time of blood draw used for methylation measurement. We identified DNA methylation markers associated with IR at the genome-wide level accounting for multiple testing (P < 1.1 × 10-7) and evaluated their association with neurological traits in participants from the FHS (N = 3040) and the Religious Orders Study/Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP, N = 707). DNA methylation profiles were measured in blood (FHS) or dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (ROSMAP) using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Linear regressions (ROSMAP) or mixed-effects models accounting for familial relatedness (FHS) adjusted for age, sex, cohort, self-reported race, batch, and cell type proportions were used to assess associations between DNA methylation and neurological traits accounting for multiple testing. RESULTS: We confirmed the strong association of blood DNA methylation with IR at three loci (cg17901584-DHCR24, cg17058475-CPT1A, cg00574958-CPT1A, and cg06500161-ABCG1). In FHS, higher levels of blood DNA methylation at cg00574958 and cg17058475 were both associated with lower IR (P = 2.4 × 10-11 and P = 9.0 × 10-8), larger total brain volumes (P = 0.03 and P = 9.7 × 10-4), and smaller log lateral ventricular volumes (P = 0.07 and P = 0.03). In ROSMAP, higher levels of brain DNA methylation at the same two CPT1A markers were associated with greater risk of cognitive impairment (P = 0.005 and P = 0.02) and higher AD-related indices (CERAD score: P = 5 × 10-4 and 0.001; Braak stage: P = 0.004 and P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest potentially distinct epigenetic regulatory mechanisms between peripheral blood and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex tissues underlying IR and AD at CPT1A locus.

A Type 1 Diabetes Polygenic Score Is Not Associated With Prevalent Type 2 Diabetes in Large Population Studies.

Context: Both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have significant genetic contributions to risk and understanding their overlap can offer clinical insight. Objective: We examined whether a T1D polygenic score (PS) was associated with a diagnosis of T2D in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium. Methods: We constructed a T1D PS using 79 known single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T1D risk. We analyzed 13 792 T2D cases and 14 169 controls from CHARGE cohorts to determine the association between the T1D PS and T2D prevalence. We validated findings in an independent sample of 2256 T2D cases and 27 052 controls from the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGB Biobank). As secondary analyses in 5228 T2D cases from CHARGE, we used multivariable regression models to assess the association of the T1D PS with clinical outcomes associated with T1D. Results: The T1D PS was not associated with T2D both in CHARGE (P = .15) and in the MGB Biobank (P = .87). The partitioned human leukocyte antigens only PS was associated with T2D in CHARGE (OR 1.02 per 1 SD increase in PS, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, P = .006) but not in the MGB Biobank. The T1D PS was weakly associated with insulin use (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.001-1.012, P = .03) in CHARGE T2D cases but not with other outcomes. Conclusion: In large biobank samples, a common variant PS for T1D was not consistently associated with prevalent T2D. However, possible heterogeneity in T2D cannot be ruled out and future studies are needed do subphenotyping.

Precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation and progression suggests that precision medicine interventions could improve clinical outcomes. We undertook a systematic review to determine whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes were associated with high quality evidence, reproducible results and improved outcomes for patients. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for publications that used 'simple subclassification' approaches using simple categorisation of clinical characteristics, or 'complex subclassification' approaches which used machine learning or 'omics approaches in people with established type 2 diabetes. We excluded other diabetes subtypes and those predicting incident type 2 diabetes. We assessed quality, reproducibility and clinical relevance of extracted full-text articles and qualitatively synthesised a summary of subclassification approaches. RESULTS: Here we show data from 51 studies that demonstrate many simple stratification approaches, but none have been replicated and many are not associated with meaningful clinical outcomes. Complex stratification was reviewed in 62 studies and produced reproducible subtypes of type 2 diabetes that are associated with outcomes. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into clinically meaningful subtypes. CONCLUSION: Critical next steps toward clinical implementation are to test whether subtypes exist in more diverse ancestries and whether tailoring interventions to subtypes will improve outcomes.

In people with type 2 diabetes there may be differences in the way people present, including for example, their symptoms, body weight or how much insulin they make. We looked at recent publications describing research in this area to see whether it is possible to separate people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and, if so, whether these groupings were useful for patients. We found that it is possible to group people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and being in one subgroup can be more strongly linked to the likelihood of developing complications over others. This might mean that in the future we can treat people in different subgroups differently in ways that improves their treatment and their health but it requires further study.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential (CHIP) and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk.

OBJECTIVE: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: CHIP was derived from whole-genome sequencing of blood DNA in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) prospective cohorts. We performed analysis for 17,637 participants from six cohorts, without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. We evaluated baseline CHIP versus no CHIP prevalence with incident T2D, including associations with DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, and TP53 variants. We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education, self-reported race/ethnicity, and combined cohorts' estimates via fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 63.4 (11.5) years, 76% were female, and CHIP prevalence was 6.0% (n = 1,055) at baseline. T2D was diagnosed in n = 2,467 over mean follow-up of 9.8 years. Participants with CHIP had 23% (CI 1.04, 1.45) higher risk of T2D than those with no CHIP. Specifically, higher risk was for TET2 (HR 1.48; CI 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR 1.76; CI 1.03, 2.99) mutations; DNMT3A was nonsignificant (HR 1.15; CI 0.93, 1.43). Statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 analyses. CONCLUSIONS: CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on genes implicated in CHD and mortality were also related to T2D, suggesting shared aging-related pathology.

Polygenic Scores for Longitudinal Prediction of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in an Ancestrally and Medically Diverse Primary Care Network.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic score (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): 1) age and sex, 2) age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and family history of diabetes; 3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; 4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. RESULTS: PGS was associated with incident diabetes in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk [(PGS-CRS interaction p =0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)]. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Prognostic value of insulin resistance and hyperglycemia biomarkers for long-term risks of cardiometabolic outcomes.

We found that individuals in the top tertile of HOMA-IR and with HbA1c-defined prediabetes have elevated risk of cardiometabolic outcomes.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Systematic review of precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes.

Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation, progression and treatment has the potential for precision medicine interventions that can enhance care and outcomes for affected individuals. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes are associated with improved clinical outcomes, show reproducibility and have high quality evidence. We reviewed publications that deployed 'simple subclassification' using clinical features, biomarkers, imaging or other routinely available parameters or 'complex subclassification' approaches that used machine learning and/or genomic data. We found that simple stratification approaches, for example, stratification based on age, body mass index or lipid profiles, had been widely used, but no strategy had been replicated and many lacked association with meaningful outcomes. Complex stratification using clustering of simple clinical data with and without genetic data did show reproducible subtypes of diabetes that had been associated with outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and/or mortality. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into meaningful groups. More studies are needed to test these subclassifications in more diverse ancestries and prove that they are amenable to interventions.