ABSTRACT
In new epidemics after the host shift, the pathogens may experience accelerated evolution driven by novel selective pressures. When the accelerated evolution enters a positive feedback loop with the expanding epidemics, the pathogens runaway evolution may be triggered. To test this possibility in COVID-19, we analyze the extensive databases and identify 5 major waves of strains, one replacing the previous one in 2020 - 2021. The mutations differ entirely between waves and the number of mutations continues to increase, from 3-4 to 21-31. The latest wave is the Delta strain which accrues 31 new mutations to become highly prevalent. Interestingly, these new mutations in Delta strain emerge in multiple stages with each stage driven by 6 - 12 coding mutations that form a fitness group. In short, the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 from the oldest to the youngest wave, and from the earlier to the later stages of the Delta wave, is a process of acceleration with more and more mutations. The global increase in the viral population size (M(t), at time t) and the mutation accumulation (R(t)) may have indeed triggered the runaway evolution in late 2020, leading to the highly evolved Alpha and then Delta strain. To suppress the pandemic, it is crucial to break the positive feedback loop between M(t) and R(t), neither of which has yet to be effectively dampened by late 2021. New waves beyond Delta, hence, should not be surprising.
ABSTRACT
The before-outbreak evolutionary history of SARS-CoV-2 is enigmatic because it shares only [~]96% genomic similarity with RaTG13, the closest relative so far found in wild animals (horseshoe bats). Since mutations on single-stranded viral RNA are heavily shaped by host factors, the viral mutation signatures can in turn inform the host. By comparing publically available viral genomes we here inferred the mutations SARS-CoV-2 accumulated before the outbreak and after the split from RaTG13. We found the mutation spectrum of SARS-CoV-2, which measures the relative rates of 12 mutation types, is 99.9% identical to that of RaTG13. It is also similar to that of two other bat coronaviruses but distinct from that evolved in non-bat hosts. The viral mutation spectrum informed the activities of a variety of mutation-associated host factors, which were found almost identical between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, a pattern difficult to create in laboratory. All the findings are robust after replacing RaTG13 with RshSTT182, another coronavirus found in horseshoe bats with [~]93% similarity to SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses suggest SARS-CoV-2 shared almost the same host environment with RaTG13 and RshSTT182 before the outbreak.
ABSTRACT
We report a complete genomic sequence of rare isolates (minor genotype) of the SARS-CoV from SARS patients in Guangdong, China, where the first few cases emerged. The most striking discovery from the isolate is an extra 29-nucleotide sequence located at the nucleotide positions between 27,863 and 27,864 (referred to the complete sequence of BJ01) within an overlapped region composed of BGI-PUP5 (BGI-postulated uncharacterized protein 5) and BGI-PUP6 upstream of the N (nucleocapsid) protein. The discovery of this minor genotype, GD-Ins29, suggests a significant genetic event and differentiates it from the previously reported genotype, the dominant form among all sequenced SARS-CoV isolates. A 17-nt segment of this extra sequence is identical to a segment of the same size in two human mRNA sequences that may interfere with viral replication and transcription in the cytosol of the infected cells. It provides a new avenue for the exploration of the virus-host interaction in viral evolution, host pathogenesis, and vaccine development.
