How to influence fertility: the experience so far.

PIP: Even though fertility in the US is 2, the population grows each year by 2.5 million people due to natural increase and immigration. The US has never had a formal population policy to influence its birth rate. Yet the US government advises other nations, especially developing nations, how they should go about reducing their fertility. Instead the US can learn from population policies of direct disincentives, such as no income tax allowance for 3 children. In Indonesia, the president and Islamic religious leaders strongly support family planning. In Mexico, both the public and private sectors provide family planning services. The US does not have experience in influencing fertility declines, since fertility declined due to economic development over a period of time. Some scholars claim that there are 3 preconditions for a sustained decline in fertility, all of which have significance for setting population policies. The 1st is called rational choice in which conditions are such in a society that women can make their own decision. For example, the existence of legislation that guarantees women the right to act in their own interest, including the right to make their own reproductive decisions. The 2nd involves policies or conditions that motivate individuals and/or couples to limit family size. Incentives and disincentives can provide the needed motivation. For example, the government pays a woman for not having a child for a specific interval. The last precondition includes the necessity of having means available to limit family size. These means include knowledge of contraceptive methods and accessibility to them.^ieng

[The one-child policy in China]. / La politica de un solo hijo en China.

PIP: Although the government of the People's Republic of China manifested sporadic concern about the nation's rapid population growth beginning at the time of the 1953 national census, it was not until the 1970s that a small family with a maximum of 2 children began to be promoted through a national campaign of education and persuasion. With the subsequent advent of the 1-child policy in 1979, the family planning campaign became a campaign for population planning in which the government no longer limited itself to contraceptive education and distribution, but began to intervene in human reproduction to accomodate it to material production. China's population policy, despite setbacks and delays, has had notable results. No other predominantly peasant society has achieved such a significant fertility decline in such a short time, but the price has been high. The problems have included confrontation with ancient cultural traditions, interference of the government in the most intimate aspects of family life, the sacrifice of a natural desire for children, evasion of marriage and birth registration, and even female infanticide. The incentives and sanctions for the 1-child policy have been primarily economic in nature, but widespread coercion and abuse have been reported. Although China's fertility has declined steadily since 1971, the fall was considerably greater in the cities, where the expense of children and critical housing shortages have effectively discouraged childbearing. In the countryside the dismantling of the communes and substitution of a system of family responsibility for agricultural production have had a strong pronatalist effect, reinforcing the desire for children as a means of old age security. The costs of children in rural areas are insignificant compared to the cities, housing is less crowded, and fertility sanctions are harder to enforce. Rural discontent and resistence to government family planning policy nevertheless became so acute that it was probably a factor in the 1984 relaxation of the 1-child policy in certain rural areas. Despite considerable success, the Chinese government has not met its family planning goals. 32.3 million couples, or 18% of fertile-aged couples, have expressed willingness to have only 1 child. The 32.3 million include 36% of urban and 11% of rural couples. According to a July 1988 fertility survey, the crude birth rate dropped to 8.84/1000, but the rates of early marriage and adolescent pregnancy were increasing. A major problem in the next 5 years will be the arrival at marriageable age of the large cohorts born around the time of the Cultural Revolution.^ieng

[Fertility, a very slow decrease]. / Fecundidad, un descenso mas lento

PIP: The last 2 decades represent a period of demographic change in developing countries marked by decreased fecundity. In Mexico, 20 years ago the average women had 7 live children at the end of her reproductive years, a figure that was not expected to decline. The change is attributed almost entirely to increased use of contraceptives by married couples. In the early 1970's, the Mexican government adopted an explicit antinatalist policy, and acted to reduce the costs of contraception. The differential fecundity between urban and rural areas has increased from 13% in 1970 to 25% in 1976, and a similar change occurred for the differential fertility along educational level, due to the more rapid decrease in fecundity among urban and educated groups of women. Increased economic participation of women is also believed to have contributed to decreased fecundity. In 1968, there were 6765 children per 1000 women aged 15-44, which declined to a fecundity of 3755 children/1000 women in 1986, a 44.3%^ieng

The people yet to come; avoiding the demographic trap.

PIP: The demographic trap is defined as the condition where a nation has passed through the process of lowering death rates, but has not been able to lower birth rates before ecological carrying capacity is exceeded. A minimal estimate predicts that by the year 2000, 63 countries, or 1.1 billion people, will be trapped by starvation, dependence on imported food, and resulting economic and political instability. Such a country that failed to complete the demographic transition will fall back to the original stage, of high death as well as birth rates. Most nations in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are at risk, notably Mexico, India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, because they already have falling living standards coupled with rapid growth rates. Most governments are unaware of the subtle signs that carrying capacity has been exceeded. Even those that are able to understand such events, often practice ineffective policies. For example, the U.S. has dropped U.N.F.P.A. support ostensibly because one nation, China, allowed forced abortions. On the other hand, some third world countries have initiated novel campaigns to reduce births, for example popular media campaigns in Mexico, free dissemination of birth control pills to all women in Brazil, and a separate family planning ministry in Zimbabwe.^ieng

[The cases of China and Brazil]. / Os casos de China e Brasil.

PIP: Demographic developments and family planning in China and Brazil are described and compared. Postrevolutionary China was characterized by initial rapid economic expansion, followed later by recurrent agricultural crises. Abortion and sterilization were strictly forbidden. The mid-twenties was legal minimum age for marrying, thus increasing the work force. In the early 1960s, population control measures were introduced, legalizing sterilization and abortion, a trend reversed, in 1966, by the cultural revolution, which resulted in a baby boom and an enormous proportion of young women, today, in their reproductive ages. Various stages of increased government involvement finally resulted in a 1 family, 1 child policy adopted in 1978, coercing families and individuals to sign a certificate, severely limiting earning potentials and privileges, if having more than 1 child. By the year 2050, if current policies are being enforced, the population is projected to be 917 million. Brazil traditionally has had an intellectual pro-natality movement, due to its vast internal space, low population density and high economic productive capacity. By 1970, however, the economic miracle had passed. Child mortality and health problems became rampant. Democratizing access to contraceptive means and services, and the economic for migration to large empty spaces of the country were emphasized. The state assumed responsibility for providing contraceptive means instead of leaving it in the hands of private agencies. Brazil refuses to recognize simplistic rhetoric blaming population increases for all ills in the developing countries and espouses the position that planning for children, the more positive term for family planning, is a fundamental right of all human beings and should stem from free and informed choice by couples and individuals.^ieng

[Population growth rate of one percent in the year 2000: an unattainable target]. / Tasa de crecimiento poblacional de 1% en al ano 2000: una meta inalcanzable.

PIP: The author demonstrates the unattainability of Mexico's population policy target of reducing the natural increase rate to one percent by the end of this century. In order to reach this goal, the net reproduction rate would have to decrease to significantly below replacement level, or 0.667; this would produce dramatic changes in the age structure as well. The policy's objectives are also analyzed in terms of the extent of family planning necessary to reach the target growth rate.^ieng

Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

PIP: A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic conditions for poor families if they hope to reduce population growth. Education and job opportunities must be expanded and social security provided for the elderly. In the past it was assumed that fertility would only decline when urbanization, industrialization, and income reached a certain level. It is now known that appropriate policies can effectively reduce fertility even in the absence of economic advancement. Fertility declines are more closely related to increases in literacy and life expectancy than to increases in the gross national product. Family planning programs in China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, and Tunisia have reduced fertility far below the level normally associated with the income levels prevailing in those countries.^ieng

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August, 1984.

PIP: In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.^ieng

[Population policy and women: the relevance of previous studies]. / Politicas de poblacion y la mujer: antecedentes para su estudio.

PIP: Although Mexico has had high rates of population growth since the 1930s caused by continuing high fertility but declining infant and general mortality, and has undergone deep structural change including declining agricultural production, rapid industrialization, urbanization, and increasing urban umemployment, it was not until the 1970s that the government began to adopt measures aimed at controlling population growth. Opponents of family planning argued that economic and social development would lead to fertility decline, but its proponents believed that reducing population growth would free resources for productive investment that otherwise would have to be used to finance services for the ever-growing population. At the same time that the constitution and laws were changed to allow or promote family planning, Mexican civil and labor laws were changed to provide for equality of men and women. Some background is necessary to understand the effect of such changes in the role and status of the Mexican woman. A relationship has been noted between demographic models--the form in which a society reproduces over a given time--and the social condition of women. Women have generally been subordinated to men during known history, but recent research indicates that their history has not been as uniform as once supposed. The particular form in which each society defines the natural-biological basis of sex roles varies; social definitions of sex and gender vary depending on the extension of "natural-biological" character to specific areas and tasks. The cases of French women in the 16th-18th centuries and German women under Hitler illustrate different ways in which demographic models and the condition of women have varied within a general framework of subordination of women. But when attempts are made to change a given demographic model, the condition of women is redefined at the level of practice as well as of value orientations concerning motherhood, female labor force participation, and the role of women in society. Moreover, the literature concerning fertility decline contains numerous statements by both those opposed to and in favor of birth control, that improving the status of women is 1 of the most effective means of reducing population growth. It can then be asked what changes in the role of women in Mexico will attend application of a fertility reduction policy. The crude birth rate declined from 44.2 in 1970 to 34.4 in 1980, with fertility falling among all age groups but especially among women over 40. The decline occurred primarily among urban nonmanual occupations. More research must be done on recent fertility change in Mexico and on related changes in the role orientations of men and women in different classes and life cycle stages, that have occurred at various stages of the population debate.^ieng

[Elements of a better understanding and evaluation of population policy in the Dominican Republic]. / Elementos para una mejor comprension y evaluacion de la politica poblacional de la Republica Dominicana.

PIP: This work has 3 objectives: to clarify the concept of population policy, to examine different theoretical approaches to the analysis of a national population policy, and to describe the origin, development, and present characteristics of the population policy of the Dominican Republic. The concept of population policy is often confused with the related concepts of responsible parenthood, family planning, and birth or population control. Population policy may be defined as a coherent group of declarations, decisions, and actions following a rational strategy which, as part of a national development plan, is formulated and implemented by the state and additional social institutions in accordance with national needs. Its final goal is the protection and development of human resources through influencing population characteristics. Although recent attempts to apply the methods of political analysis to the area of population policy all suffer from limitations, 4 frameworks which respectively look at the 3 levels of population policy (the philosophic-ideologic, the scientific, and the practical); at the division of population policy into declarations, decisions, programs, and results; at criteria for evaluating the probability of success of a population policy; and at the stages of development of population policies in dependent countries can be of assistance in understanding and evaluating the population policy of the Dominican Republic. Until 1961, the end of the Trujillo era, a pronatalist attitude predominated in the Dominican Republic, prompted in part by fears of an aggressive and densely populated Haiti sharing the same island. From 1962-66, a gradual change in attitudes began in the private sector as various groups began quiet efforts at family planning and the Dominican Association for Family Welfare was formed and became an affiliate of the International Planned Parenthood Federation. During this stage the government remained neutral or offered quiet support, such as allowing tax-free importation of contraceptives. In the next stage, the government became more concerned with the population problem, culminating in the incorporation of free family planning services into the maternal-child health program. In the 4th stage of development, from 1968-73, a national family planning program was created according to a 5-Year Plan covering 1969-73 whose goal was a birth rate decline from 48/1000 in 1969 to 38/1000 by 1973. In the 5th stage, financial and technical aid from the Population Council was augmented by a closer link to UNFPA.^ieng