Trends in drug overdose deaths in Mexico (1999-2019). A national descriptive analysis and interstate comparison.

BACKGROUND: We assess trends in overdose mortality rates in Mexico from 1999 to 2019 and identify the states with the highest overdose mortality rates over time. METHODS: The analysis using mortality statistics examined deaths related to drug use. We estimated general overdose mortality rates at the national and state levels and calculated specific mortality rates associated with opioid and stimulant use using central rate estimation. We used joinpoint regression to analyse national and state-specific trends in overdose mortality from 1999 to 2019. FINDINGS: Nationally, the general overdose mortality rate increased annually by 10.49 % (p < 0.01, CI=11.4-18.9) from 2015 to 2019. The northern states of Baja California and Chihuahua were the states with the higher annual increases (18.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=4.2-29.6; and 15.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=12.9-19.7, respectively). By substance type, the national opioid-related mortality rate increased by 29.82 % per year from 2014 to 2019 (p < 0.01; CI=20.1-40.3), compared with an annual decrease of 11.43 % in the previous period (2005-2014) (p < 0.01; CI=-14.7- 8.0). Baja California was the state with the highest rise in opioid-related mortality from 2013 to 2019, with an annual increase of 15.84 % (p < 0.01; CI=1.4-32.3). Stimulant-related mortality increased by 21.79 % per year since 2013 (p < 0.01; CI=16.9-26.9), but it was not possible to calculate state-level trends. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-related mortality rates have increased in Mexico since 2015, particularly in the northern states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora and Sinaloa. Improving harm reduction programmes and local surveillance of fatal and non-fatal overdoses is essential to address the silent escalation of overdose mortality.

The burden of knee osteoarthritis worldwide, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2019, along with an analysis of cross-national inequalities.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) globally, regionally, and in 204 countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, and to explore cross-national inequalities across SDI. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database collected data on KOA worldwide from 1990 to 2019, including prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to measure temporal trends. In addition, the inequality slope index and the health concentration index were calculated to quantify the unequal distribution of the burden of KOA across 204 countries worldwide. RESULTS: In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence rate increased by 7.5% compared with 1990, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by about 6.2%; The age-standardized YLDs rate increased by about 7.8%. In addition to the Republic of Korea and the United States of America, the disease burden of KOA has increased year by year in other countries around the world. The incidence of KOA was highest at ages 50-59, while the prevalence and rates of YLDs were highest at ages 75-84. The burden of KOA was higher in women than in men. Cross-country inequality suggests that the inequality in the burden of KOA between high SDI and low SDI countries becomes greater, and that countries with high SDI bear a disproportionately high burden. CONCLUSION: The global KOA burden has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, and cross-national inequality gaps remain large. Targeted measures must therefore be taken to address this inequality and the increasing global KOA disease burden.

Racial/ethnic trends in opioid and polysubstance opioid overdose mortality in adolescents and young adults, 1999-2020.

OBJECTIVES: Previous reports have described variations in opioid overdose mortalities among different race/ethnicity groups. We have analyzed racial/ethnicity trends in opioid and polysubstance opioid overdose mortalities in adolescents and young adults to further characterize differences and potential sub-epidemics within this specific population. METHODS: We used mortality data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) Multiple Cause of Death file from 1999 to 2020. Drug overdose mortalities were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes. Joinpoint regression was used to examine mortality rates for all opioids, opioids with a stimulant, opioids with benzodiazepines, and opioids with alcohol among racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic other) in adolescents and young adults. RESULTS: The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) for mortality due to opioid and polysubstance opioid overdose increased for all racial/ethnic groups where data was available for analysis from 1999 to 2020. For mortality due to any opioid and any opioid with a stimulant, the greatest AAPC was seen among non-Hispanic Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: Unprecedented increases in mortality due to opioid overdose occurred in the last two decades among adolescents and young adults. Heterogenous trends support the notion that the previously defined opioid overdose epidemic "waves" may not accurately depict the effects of the crisis in all race/ethnicity groups. Additionally, alarming increases in opioid-stimulant overdose mortality starting in 2012 further characterize the interrelated effects of the third and fourth waves.

Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods: Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline. Conclusion: Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis / Mortalidad por síndromes mielodisplásicos en España: análisis integral de cohortes por períodos de edad y de puntos de unión

Objective: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Methods: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35–64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. Results: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980–1987 (stable rates), 1987–1990 (sharp increase), 1990–1999 (slower increase) and 1999–2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35–64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.(AU)

The changing landscape of small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is characterized by rapid proliferation and early dissemination. The objective of this study was to examine the demographic trends and outcomes in SCLC. METHODS: The authors queried the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to assess the trends in incidence, demographics, staging, and survival for SCLC from 1975 to 2019. Trends were determined using joinpoint analysis according to the year of diagnosis. RESULTS: Among the 530,198 patients with lung cancer, there were 73,362 (13.8%) with SCLC. The incidence per 100,000 population peaked at 15.3 in 1986 followed by a decline to 6.5 in 2019. The percentage of SCLC among all lung tumors increased from 13.3% in 1975 to a peak of 17.5% in 1986, declining to 11.1% by 2019. There was an increased median age at diagnosis from 63 to 69 years and an increased percentage of women from 31.4% to 51.2%. The percentage of stage IV increased from 58.6% in 1988 to 70.8% in 2010, without further increase. The most common sites of metastasis at diagnosis were mediastinal lymph nodes (75.3%) liver (31.6%), bone (23.7%), and brain (16.4%). The 1-year and 5-year overall survival rate increased from 23% and 3.6%, respectively, in 1975-1979 to 30.8% and 6.8%, respectively, in 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of SCLC peaked in 1988 followed by a gradual decline. Other notable changes include increased median age at diagnosis, the percentage of women, and the percentage of stage IV at diagnosis. The improvement in 5-year overall survival has been statistically significant but clinically modest.

Trends in chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh for small domains.

Chronic childhood undernutrition, known as stunting, is an important population health problem with short- and long-term adverse outcomes. Bangladesh has made strides to reduce chronic childhood undernutrition, yet progress is falling short of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals targets. This study estimates trends in age-specific chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh's 64 districts during 1997-2018, using underlying direct estimates extracted from seven Demographic and Health Surveys in the development of small area time-series models. These models combine cross-sectional, temporal, and spatial data to predict in all districts in both survey and non-survey years. Nationally, there has been a steep decline in stunting from about three in five to one in three children. However, our results highlight significant inequalities in chronic undernutrition, with several districts experiencing less pronounced declines. These differences are more nuanced at the district-by-age level, with only districts in more socio-economically advantaged areas of Bangladesh consistently reporting declines in stunting across all age groups.

Global, regional and national burden of ischemic stroke attributed to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 1990-2019：A decomposition analysis and age-period-cohort analysis.

High levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) have been associated with an augmented mortality of ischemic stroke. The yearly deaths and mortality data of IS-hLDL-C were derived from the global burden of disease 2019 dataset. The joinpoint, age-period-cohort and decomposition analysis were utilized to evaluate the long-term patterns in the disease burden of IS-hLDL-C, and the effects of population growth and aging. Globally, in 2019, 0.61 million ischemic stroke-related deaths were attributable to high LDL-C, with the highest death burden in the high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for IS-hLDL-C exhibited a downward trend, with an average annual percentage change of -1.69 [95% confidence interval: -1.90, -1.48)]. The fastest decreasing trends in ASDR were experienced in the high SDI region. In 119 (58.33%) countries, aging increased the disease burden of hLDL-IS, and population growth increased the disease burden of IS-hLDL-C in 163 (79.90%) countries. The trend in disease burden of IS-hLDL-C exhibited variation across countries and regions, particularly in territories with high to middle high SDI. Aging in upper to middle-income countries and population growth in low to middle-income countries further offset endeavors to reduce the burden of ischemic stroke deaths.

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. METHODS: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35-64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. RESULTS: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980-1987 (stable rates), 1987-1990 (sharp increase), 1990-1999 (slower increase) and 1999-2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35-64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.

Age, period and cohort effects on gastric cancer mortality in Spain, 1980-2021

Background: this study aimed to evaluate the effects of age, time period and cohort (A-P-C) on gastric cancer (GC) mortality in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Methods: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). Joinpoint regression software was used to estimate rates by sex and age group (< 35, 35-64, > 64 years) and mortality trends. The National Cancer Institute A-P-C tools were used to assess the effects of age, time of death and birth cohort. Results: GC mortality rates in Spain decreased significantly in both sexes. In the under-35 age group, rates were stable after an initial significant decline. In the 35-64 age group, the decline was more pronounced in males than in females. In the 65+ age group, rates fell significantly for both sexes, but more so for females than for males. The net drift and local drift also showed significant decreases across all age groups from 24 years onwards. GC mortality rates increased with age and decreased with calendar time and successive birth cohorts, regardless of sex. The ratio of age-specific rates between males and females increased with age, and birth cohort relative risk estimates followed a steady downward trend until the mid-1970s, after which the decline stabilized. The relative risk decreased for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in males. Conclusion: GC mortality rates in Spain have been decreasing over time and across successive birth cohorts, with a stabilizing trend observed for those under 35 years of age (AU)

Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality Trends in Brazil: An In-Depth Joinpoint Analysis.

Background Cerebrovascular disease is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability following heart disease. In 2019, there were over 101 million people living with a stroke and 12.2 million incidents of stroke globally. For the past three decades, stroke has remained the leading cause of death in Brazil, causing over 100,000 fatalities annually, along with numerous functional impairments among those who survive. The Brazilian healthcare system has witnessed notable advancements in the last decade, including the establishment of additional hospitals and a rise in the count of healthcare professionals specializing in cardiovascular and neurological surgery. However, there exists a gap in the research landscape for continuous comprehensive studies aimed at exploring the evolving mortality rates related to cerebrovascular diseases, of which the last one included data up to 2019. This study aimed to address this gap by meticulously analyzing the trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality in Brazil from 2000 to 2021, for the variables age, sex, state of residence, and geographic region. Methods This is a descriptive, ecological, and time series study. Nationwide data for annual cerebrovascular mortality from Brazil were used for the period 2000-2021. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) by direct standardization, encompassing people above 20 years of age, were calculated and expressed per 100,000 persons. Mortality trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis by calculating the annual percentage change (APC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) across categories of age, sex, and state and region of residence. Results The mortality rates decreased for the sex categories over the analyzed years. The AAMR for the categories decreased as follows: males and females (95 deaths/100,000 to 52 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), males (108 deaths/100,000 to 63 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and females (83 deaths/100,000 to 44 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). The most substantial reduction in AAMR for males occurred in the 30-39-year age group (APC: -4.10), while the smallest decline was observed in the 20-29-year age group (APC: -1.44). All five macro-regions demonstrated statistically significant and downward AAPC values in mortality rates. The south and midwest regions decreased at a stable rate, as denoted by the same APC and AAPC values (-4.05 and -3.11, respectively). The north and northeast regions exhibited an increase in AAMR, followed by a decrease (APC: 0.68 to -1.42 and 2.63 to -2.35, respectively). Conclusions Our comprehensive analysis revealed a downward trend in cerebrovascular disease mortality rates across diverse demographic groups and macro-regions. Females experienced a more substantial reduction compared to males. Despite higher mortality rates among individuals aged 50 and above, all age groups displayed a marked decrease. The continuous decline can be attributed to policy interventions aimed at enhancing healthcare delivery, increased awareness, and healthier diets and lifestyles. With regard to the macro-regions, the regions in the southern zone demonstrated a more significant decrease as compared to the northern part. In Brazil, a more significant decline in cerebrovascular disease mortality rates could be achieved through increased focus on prevention measures and efforts toward mitigating disparities and inequalities between macro-regions.

Tendencias de la mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga en España, 1980-2021 / Bladder cancer mortality trends in Spain: 1980-2021

Objetivo Nos proponemos actualizar las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga en España de 1980 a 2021, estandarizadas por sexo, grupo de edad y comunidades autónomas (CC. AA.). Materiales y métodos Se utilizaron las bases de datos públicas en línea del Instituto Nacional de Estadística para obtener datos sobre población y mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad (TMEE) para todas las edades y las truncadas (<75 y ≥75 años) y se presentaron como tasas por cada 100.000 personas. Se utilizó el modelo de regresión Joinpoint para el cálculo y análisis de las tendencias de las TMEE por cáncer de vejiga. Resultados En la última década, las TMEE por cáncer de vejiga (todas las edades,<75 años y ≥75 años) disminuyeron significativamente en España para ambos sexos. Esta tendencia se observó en 12 CC. AA. para los hombres y en 4 CC. AA. (Andalucía, Canarias, Cataluña y Madrid) para las mujeres, aunque en proporciones diferentes. Para los hombres, la TMEE permaneció estable en Castilla-León y La Rioja (<75 años), Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha y Valencia (≥75 años) y las 2 regiones castellanas (todas las edades). En el caso de las mujeres, las TMEE también disminuyeron en Valencia (<75 y ≥75), Castilla-León (≥75), Galicia (≥75 y todas las edades) y Navarra (<75 y todas las edades). Conclusión Nuestros resultados revelan variaciones significativas en las tendencias por CC. AA., sexo y grupo de edad, enfatizando la necesidad de un seguimiento continuado e intervenciones específicas para reducir aún más las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga en España (AU)

Objective We propose to update bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain from 1980 to 2021, by sex and age-group, by autonomous community (AC). Materials and methods The public online databases of the National Statistical Institute were used to obtain data on population and bladder cancer mortality. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), all ages and truncated (<75 and ≥75) were estimated and reported as rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression software was used for estimation and trend analysis of ASMRs bladder cancer. Results In the last decade, the ASMR for bladder cancer (all ages,<75 years and ≥75 years) decreased significantly in Spain for both sexes. This trend was observed in 12 ACs for men and in 4 ACs (Andalusia, Canary Islands, Catalonia and Madrid) for women, although to different degrees. For men, ASMR remained stable in Castilla-León and La Rioja (<75 years), Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha and Valencia (≥75years) and the 2 Castilian regions (all ages). For women, ASMR also decreased in Valencia (<75 and ≥75), Castilla-León (≥75), Galicia (≥75 and all ages) and Navarre (<75 and all ages). Conclusion Our results reveal significant variations in trends by AC, sex and age group, emphasizing the need for continued follow-up and targeted interventions to further reduce bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain (AU)

Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 1990-2019: a decomposition and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying past temporal trends in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-associated liver cancer (NALC) can increase public awareness of the disease and facilitate future policy development. METHODS: Annual deaths and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for NALC from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The long-term trend and the critical inflection of mortality of NALC were detected by Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Last, decomposition analysis was used to reveal the aging and population growth effects for NALC burden. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the ASDR of NALC witnessed an overall declining trend on a global scale, with a decrease in females and a stable trend in males. However, the global ASDR demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2010 to 2019. Southern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia have the highest NALC burdens, while high socio-demographic index (SDI) region experienced the fastest escalation of NALC burdens over 30 years. The decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary catalysts behind the increase in global NALC deaths. Age-period-cohort analyses showed that NALC mortality declined the fastest among females aged 40-45 years in high SDI region, accompanied by a deteriorating period effect trend during the period of 2010-2019. CONCLUSION: The global absolute deaths and ASDR of NALC have witnessed a rise in the past decade, with populations exhibiting considerable disparities based on sex, age, and region. Population growth, aging, and metabolism-related factors were the main factors behind the increase in global NALC deaths.

International patterns and trends in the brain cancer incidence and mortality: An observational study based on the global burden of disease.

Background: Brain cancer is a serious issue in the global burden of diseases. This observational research aimed to assess trends of the brain cancer incidence and mortality in the world in the period 1990-2019. Methods: Brain cancer incidence and mortality data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study database. The joinpoint regression analysis was done to assess the brain cancer indicence and mortality trends: the average annual percent change (AAPC) along with its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated. Results: In both sexes, the highest age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality were found in high-income regions (Europe and America), while the lowest were observed in the African Region. A significant rise in brain cancer incidence rates both in males and females was observed in all regions, with one exception of a significantly decreased trend only among males in the South-East Asia Region. Among countries with increased trends in incidence and mortality from brain cancer, Cuba experienced the most marked increase in both incidence (AAPC = +5.7% in males and AAPC = +5.4% in females) and mortality rates (AAPC = +5.5% in males and AAPC = +5.1% in females). Among countries that experienced a decline in brain cancer incidence and mortality, Hungary and Greenland showed the most marked decline in both sexes (equally by -1.0%). Conclusion: Brain cancer shows increasing global incidence rates in both sexes and represents a priority for prevention and further research.

Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future.

BACKGROUND: The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied. METHOD: Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030. RESULTS: Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels. CONCLUSION: Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.

Bladder cancer mortality trends in Spain: 1980-2021.

OBJECTIVE: We propose to update bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain from 1980 to 2021, by sex and age-group, by autonomous community (AC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The public online databases of the National Statistical Institute were used to obtain data on population and bladder cancer mortality. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), all ages and truncated (<75 and ≥75) were estimated and reported as rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression software was used for estimation and trend analysis of ASMRs bladder cancer. RESULTS: In the last decade, the ASMR for bladder cancer (all ages, <75 years and ≥75 years) decreased significantly in Spain for both sexes. This trend was observed in 12 ACs for men and in 4 ACs (Andalusia, Canary Islands, Catalonia and Madrid) for women, although to different degrees. For men, ASMR remained stable in Castilla-León and La Rioja (<75 years), Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha and Valencia (≥75 years) and the 2 Castilian regions (all ages). For women, ASMR also decreased in Valencia (<75 and ≥75), Castilla-León (≥75), Galicia (≥75 and all ages) and Navarre (<75 and all ages). CONCLUSION: Our results reveal significant variations in trends by AC, sex and age group, emphasizing the need for continued follow-up and targeted interventions to further reduce bladder cancer mortality rates in Spain.

Trends and Disparities in Colonic Diverticular Disease Hospitalizations in Patients With Morbid Obesity: A Decade-Long Joinpoint Analysis.

Objective We aimed to describe epidemiologic trends in outcomes of colonic diverticular disease (CDD) hospitalizations in morbidly obese patients. Methods We searched the United States National Inpatient Sample databases from 2010 through 2019, obtained the incidence rate of morbid obesity (MO) among CDD hospitalizations, and used Joinpoint analysis to obtain trends in these rates adjusted for age and sex. Hospitalizations involving patients less than 18 years of age were excluded. Trends in mortality rate, mean length of hospital stay (LOS), and mean total hospital charge were analyzed. Multivariate regression analysis was used to obtain trends in adjusted mortality, mean LOS, and mean total hospital charge. Results We found an average annual percent change of 7.5% (CI = 5.5-9.4%, p < 0.01) in the adjusted incidence of MO among hospitalizations for CDD over the study period. We noted a 7.2% decline in mortality (p = 0.011) and a 0.1 days reduction in adjusted LOS (p < 0.001) over the study period. Hospitalizations among the middle-aged and elderly had adjusted odds ratios of 7.18 (95% CI = 2.2-23.3, p = 0.001) and 24.8 (95% CI = 7.9-77.9, p < 0.001), respectively, for mortality compared to those in young adults. The mean LOS was 0.29 days higher in females compared to males (p < 0.001). Conclusion The incidence of MO increased among CDD hospitalizations while mortality and mean LOS reduced over the study period. Outcomes were worse in older patients, with an increased mean LOS in females compared to males.

The temporal trend of women's cancer in Changle, China and a migrant epidemiological study.

Background: Although the etiology of women's cancer has been extensively studied in the last few decades, there is still little evidence comparing the temporal pattern of these cancers among different populations. Methods: Cancer incidence and mortality data from 1988 to 2015 were extracted from the Changle Cancer Register in China, and cancer incidence data for Los Angeles were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents plus database. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends of incidence and mortality for breast, cervical, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers. The standardized incidence ratios were applied to compare the cancer risk across populations. Results: An increasing trend of incidence rate for breast, cervical, corpus uteri and ovarian cancer was observed in Changle, although the rate leveled off for breast and cervical cancer after 2010, although not statistically significant. The mortality rate of breast and ovarian cancer was slightly increased during this period, while we found a decreased mortality of cervical cancer from 2010. The mortality of corpus uteri cancer showed a decreasing and then increasing trend. The incidence of breast, corpus uteri and ovarian cancer in Chinese American immigrants in Los Angeles was significantly higher than indigenous Changle Chinese and lower than Los Angeles whites. However, the incidence of cervical cancer in Chinese American immigrants shifted from significantly exceeding to lower than Changle Chinese. Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of women's cancers in Changle were generally on the rise, and this study concluded that environmental changes were important factors affecting the occurrence of these cancers. Appropriate preventive measures should be taken to control the occurrence of women's cancers by addressing different influencing factors.

Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis.

Mortality transition in Greece is a well-studied phenomenon in several of its aspects. It is characterised by an almost constant increase in life expectancy at birth and other ages and a parallel decrease in death probabilities. The scope of this paper is a comprehensive assessment of the mortality transition in Greece since 1961, in the light of holistic analysis. Within this paper, life tables by gender were calculated and the temporal trends of life expectancy at several ages were examined. Moreover, a cluster analysis was used in order to verify the temporal changes in the mortality patterns. The probabilities of death in large age classes are presented. Furthermore, the death distribution was analysed in relation to various parameters: the modal age at death, mode, left and right inflexion points and the length of the old age heap. Before that, a non-linear regression method, originating from the stochastic analysis, was applied. Additionally, the Gini coefficient, average inter-individual differences, and interquartile range of survival curves were examined. Finally, the standardised rates of the major causes of death are presented. All the analysis variables were scholastically examined for their temporal trends with the method of Joinpoint Regression analysis. Mortality transition in Greece after the year 1961 is asymmetrical with a gender and an age-specific component, leading to the elevation of life expectancy at birth over time. During this period, the older ages' mortality decreases, but at a slower pace than that of the younger ones. The modal age at death, mode, the left and right inflexion points and the width of the old age heap denote the compression of mortality in the country. The old age death heap shifts towards older ages, while at the same time, the variability of ages at death decreases, being verified by the Gini Coefficient and average inter-individual differences. As a result, the rectangularization of survival curves is evident. These changes have a different pace of transition over time, especially after the emergence of the economic crisis. Finally, the major causes of death were the diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system and others. The temporal trends of these diseases differ according to the diseases and gender. Greece's mortality transition is an asymmetrical stepwise process characterised by its gender and age-specific characteristics. This process, despite being a continuous one, is not linear. Instead, a combination of serious developments over time governs the country's modern mortality regime. The evaluation of Greece's mortality transition through the lens of more advanced analytical methods may provide new insights and methodological alternatives for assessing mortality transition in other countries of the world.

The Incidence Trend of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in the United States During 2003-2017.

BACKGROUND: The rapid increase in the detection rate of thyroid cancer over the past few decades has caused some unexpected economic burdens. However, that of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) seems to have had the opposite trend, which is worthy of further comprehensive exploration. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 database was used to identify patients with PTC diagnosed during 2003-2017. The incidence trends were analyzed using joinpoint analysis and an age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: The overall PTC incidence rate increased from 9.9 to 16.1 per 100 000 between 2003 and 2017. The joinpoint analysis indicated that the incidence growth rate began to slow down in 2009 (annual percentage change [APC] = 3.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.9%-4.4%). After reaching its peak in 2015, it began to decrease by 2.8% (95% CI = -4.6% to -1.0%) per year. The stratified analysis indicated that the incidence patterns of different sexes, age groups, races, and tumor stages and sizes had similar downward trends, including for the localized (APC = -4.5%, 95% CI = -7% to -1.9%) and distant (APC = -1.3%, 95% CI = -2.7% to -.1%) stages, and larger tumors (APC = -4%, 95% CI = -12% to 4.7%). The age-period-cohort model indicated a significant period effect on PTC, which gradually weakened after 2008-2012. The cohort effect indicates that the risk of late birth cohorts is gradually stabilizing and lower than that of early birth cohorts. CONCLUSION: The analysis results of the recent downward trend and period effect for the incidence of each subgroup further support the important role of correcting overdiagnosis in reducing the prevalence of PTC. Future research needs to analyze more-recent data to verify these downward trends.