Meta-análisis: Intervalos de confianza e Intervalos de predicción / Meta-analysis: Confidence intervals and Prediction intervals

En los informes meta-analíticos se suelen reportar varios tipos de intervalos, hecho que ha generado cierta confusión a la hora de interpretarlos. Los intervalos de confianza reflejan la incertidumbre relacionada con un número, el tamaño del efecto medio paramétrico. Los intervalos de predicción reflejan el tamaño paramétrico probable en cualquier estudio de la misma clase que los incluidos en un meta-análisis. Su interpretación y aplicaciones son diferentes. En este artículo explicamos su diferente naturaleza y cómo se pueden utilizar para responder preguntas específicas. Se incluyen ejemplos numéricos, así como su cálculo con el paquete metafor en R.(AU)

Several types of intervals are usually employed in meta-analysis, a fact that has generated some confusion when interpreting them. Confidence intervals reflect the uncertainty related to a single number, the parametric mean effect size. Prediction intervals reflect the probable parametric effect size in any study of the same class as those included in a meta-analysis. Its interpretation and applications are different. In this article we explain in de-tail their different nature and how they can be used to answer specific ques-tions. Numerical examples are included, as well as their computation with the metafor Rpackage.(AU)

Synergy of higher education resources and digital infrastructure construction in China: Regional differences, dynamic evolution and trend forecasting.

The deep integration of higher education with digital technology represents an inevitable trend, and evaluating the interplay between higher education resources (HER) and digital infrastructure construction (DIC) holds significant value for advancing the development of digital higher education and mitigating regional disparities in China. This study establishes two comprehensive evaluation frameworks for HER and DIC. Panel data from 31 provinces, spanning the period from 2011 to 2020, are utilized for analysis. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model is employed in this work to evaluate the synergy between HER and DIC in China. Furthermore, we analyze the regional differences, spatial distribution, and trend evolution of this synergy. The study results revealed that there is an initial decrease followed by an increase in the synergy between HER and DIC, and the overall CCD is at a moderate coordination, with the mean CCD of the eastern region being significantly higher than that of the other three regions, and the inter-regional difference is the main source of regional disparity in this synergy. The current state of synergistic development reveals a slight inclination towards multi-polarization, although the disparity in regional development was decreasing. Additionally, there is an observed convergence in the coordinated development of HER and DIC, with spatial factors playing a significant role. These findings offer empirical support for efforts to enhance the integration of HER and DIC, reduce regional disparities in higher education, and foster sustainable development in China's higher education sector.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Predicting seasonal influenza outbreaks with regime shift-informed dynamics for improved public health preparedness.

In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates regime-shift detection with a mechanistic model to forecast the peak times of seasonal influenza. The key benefit of this approach is its ability to detect regime shifts from non-epidemic to epidemic states, which is particularly beneficial with the year-round presence of non-zero Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) data. This integration allows for the incorporation of external factors that trigger the onset of the influenza season-factors that mechanistic models alone might not adequately capture. Applied to ILI data collected in Korea from 2005 to 2020, our method demonstrated stable peak time predictions for seasonal influenza outbreaks, particularly in years characterized by unusual onset times or epidemic magnitudes.

Predicting successful ageing among older adults seems possible even as far as two decades ahead.

BACKGROUND: Successful ageing is the term often used for depicting exceptional ageing and can be measured with multidimensional models including physical, psychological and social wellbeing. The aim of this study was to test multidimensional successful ageing models to investigate whether these models can predict successful ageing, and which individual subcomponents included in the models are most significantly associated with successful ageing. METHODS: Successful ageing was defined as the ability to live at home without daily care at the age of 84 years or over. Data on the participants' physical, psychological and social wellbeing were gathered at baseline and the follow-up period was 20 years. Four successful ageing models were constructed. Backward stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the individual subcomponents of the models which best predicted successful ageing. RESULTS: All successful ageing models were able to predict ageing successfully after the 20-year follow-up period. After the backward stepwise logistic regression analysis, three individual subcomponents of four models remained statistically significant and were included in the new model: having no heart disease, having good self-rated health and feeling useful. As a model, using only these three subcomponents, the association with successful ageing was similar to using the full models. CONCLUSIONS: Multidimensional successful ageing models were able to predict successful ageing after a 20-year follow-up period. However, according to the backward stepwise logistic regression analysis, the three subcomponents (absence of heart disease, good self-rated health and feeling useful) significantly associated with successful ageing performed as well as the multidimensional successful ageing models in predicting ageing successfully.

Predictors of transition to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in first-episode patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders: A validation study

Background and objectives Almost half of the individuals with a first-episode of psychosis who initially meet criteria for acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD) will have had a diagnostic revision during their follow-up, mostly toward schizophrenia. This study aimed to determine the proportion of diagnostic transitions to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in patients with first-episode ATPD, and to examine the validity of the existing predictors for diagnostic shift in this population. Methods We designed a prospective two-year follow-up study for subjects with first-episode ATPD. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent variables associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. This prediction model was built by selecting variables on the basis of clinical knowledge. Results Sixty-eight patients with a first-episode ATPD completed the study and a diagnostic revision was necessary in 30 subjects at the end of follow-up, of whom 46.7% transited to long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders. Poor premorbid adjustment and the presence of schizophreniform symptoms at onset of psychosis were the only variables independently significantly associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. Conclusion Our findings would enable early identification of those inidividuals with ATPD at most risk for developing long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders, and who therefore should be targeted for intensive preventive interventions. (AU)

Factors associated with neurofeedback and mindfulness-based combination therapy for patients with substance use disorder: A multicenter study

Background and objectives Substance use disorder (SUD) has become a major concern in public health globally, and there is an urgent need to develop an integrated psychosocial intervention. The aims of the current study are to test the efficacy of the integrated treatment with neurofeedback and mindfulness-based therapy for SUD and identify the predictors of the efficacy. Methods This study included 110 participants with SUD into the analysis. Outcome of measures includes demographic characteristics, severity of dependence, quality of life, symptoms of depression, and anxiety. Independent t test is used to estimate the change of scores at baseline and three months follow-up. Generalized estimating equations are applied to analyze the effect of predictors on the scores of dependence severity over time by controlling for the effects of demographic characteristics. Results A total of 22 (20 %) participants were comorbid with major mental disorder (MMD). The decrement of the severity in dependence, anxiety, and depression after treatment are identified. Improved scores of qualities of life in generic, psychological, social, and environmental domains are also noticed. After controlling for the effects of demographic characteristics, the predictors of poorer outcome are comorbid with MMD, lower quality of life, and higher level of depression and anxiety. Conclusion The present study implicates the efficacy of integrated therapy. Early identification of predictors is beneficial for healthcare workers to improve the treatment efficacy. (AU)

Machine learning in epidemiology: Neural networks forecasting of monkeypox cases.

This study integrates advanced machine learning techniques, namely Artificial Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Unit models, to forecast monkeypox outbreaks in Canada, Spain, the USA, and Portugal. The research focuses on the effectiveness of these models in predicting the spread and severity of cases using data from June 3 to December 31, 2022, and evaluates them against test data from January 1 to February 7, 2023. The study highlights the potential of neural networks in epidemiology, especially concerning recent monkeypox outbreaks. It provides a comparative analysis of the models, emphasizing their capabilities in public health strategies. The research identifies optimal model configurations and underscores the efficiency of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in training. The findings suggest that ANN models, particularly those with optimized Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and the Coefficient of Determination values, are effective in infectious disease forecasting and can significantly enhance public health responses.

The Perceived Functions and Phenomenological Characteristics of Future Thinking and Clinically Significant Generalized Anxiety Disorder Symptoms.

Current research indicates that anxiety disorders and elevated levels of trait anxiety are associated with biases and impairments when thinking of personally relevant future events, that is, future thinking. However, to date, little research has been conducted into how people with symptoms of clinical anxiety perceive the functions of future thinking. The current study presents a cross-sectional survey comparing individuals with elevated symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and related functional impact (N = 51, 43.1% female, Mage = 33.1, SD = 10.2) matched on age and gender with individuals with no clinically significant symptoms of GAD (N = 51, 43.1% female, Mage = 33.3, SD = 10.1) on self-reported functions of future thinking and a battery of items assessing the phenomenological characteristics. The results indicated various significant differences in the perceived functions of future thinking and its phenomenological characteristics in those with elevated GAD symptoms. Broadly, they indicate more frequent future thinking and more commonly for self-distraction or processing negatively valenced future events, and generally less adaptive mental representations that support current thinking on the psychopathological process of increased worry, anxious arousal and maladaptive cognition in clinical anxiety symptoms.

[The bibliography group, between dream and reality in nursing practice]. / Le groupe de bibliographie, entre rêve et réalité de l'exercice infirmier.

The shock of reality that nursing students face when they start out will affect the nursing profession even more in the future, as it faces a recruitment crisis in the midst of renewal. Restoring meaning to the nursing profession is a complex and daunting challenge. By providing access to scientific literature, the bibliography group can contribute to this, based on an Evidence-Based Nursing approach. This initiative, which is beneficial for professionals whose skills development is thus encouraged, is designed to be simple and accessible to as many people as possible.

Exploring dental professionals' outlook on the future of dental care amidst the integration of artificial intelligence in dentistry: a pilot study in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to explore the perspectives, familiarity, and readiness of dental faculty members regarding the integration and application of artificial intelligence (AI) in dentistry, with a focus on the possible effects on dental education and clinical practice. METHODOLOGY: In a mix-method cross-sectional quantitative and quantitative study conducted between June 1st and August 30th, 2023, the perspectives of faculty members from a public sector dental college in Pakistan regarding the function of AI were explored. This study used qualitative as well as quantitative techniques to analyse faculty's viewpoints on the subject. The sample size was comprised of twenty-three faculty members. The quantitative data was analysed using descriptive statistics, while the qualitative data was analysed using theme analysis. RESULTS: Position-specific differences in faculty familiarity underscore the value of individualized instruction. Surprisingly few had ever come across AI concepts in their professional lives. Nevertheless, many acknowledged that AI had the potential to improve patient outcomes. The majority thought AI would improve dentistry education. Participants suggested a few dental specialties where AI could be useful. CONCLUSION: The study emphasizes the significance of addressing in dental professionals' knowledge gaps about AI. The promise of AI in dentistry calls for specialized training and teamwork between academic institutions and AI developers. Graduates of dentistry programs who use AI are better prepared to navigate shifting environments. The study highlights the positive effects of AI and the value of faculty involvement in maximizing its potential for better dental education and practice.

Digital Health Education for the Future: The SaNuRN (Santé Numérique Rouen-Nice) Consortium's Journey.

SaNuRN is a five-year project by the University of Rouen Normandy (URN) and the Côte d'Azur University (CAU) consortium to optimize digital health education for medical and paramedical students, professionals, and administrators. The project includes a skills framework, training modules, and teaching resources. In 2027, SaNuRN is expected to train a significant portion of the 400,000 health and paramedical professions students at the French national level. Our purpose is to give a synopsis of the SaNuRN initiative, emphasizing its novel educational methods and how they will enhance the delivery of digital health education. Our goals include showcasing SaNuRN as a comprehensive program consisting of a proficiency framework, instructional modules, and educational materials and explaining how SaNuRN is implemented in the participating academic institutions. SaNuRN is a project aimed at educating and training health-related and paramedics students in digital health. The project results from a cooperative effort between URN and CAU, covering four French departments. The project is based on the French National Referential on Digital Health (FNRDH), which defines the skills and competencies to be acquired and validated by every student in the health, paramedical, and social professions curricula. The SaNuRN team is currently adapting the existing URN and CAU syllabi to FNRDH and developing short-duration video capsules of 20 to 30 minutes to teach all the relevant material. The project aims to ensure that the largest student population earns the necessary skills, and it has developed a two-tier system involving facilitators who will enable the efficient expansion of the project's educational outreach and support the students in learning the needed material efficiently. With a focus on real-world scenarios and innovative teaching activities integrating telemedicine devices and virtual professionals, SaNuRN is committed to enabling continuous learning for healthcare professionals in clinical practice. The SaNuRN team introduced new ways of evaluating healthcare professionals by shifting from a knowledge-based to a competencies-based evaluation, aligning with the Miller teaching pyramid and using the Objective Structured Clinical Examination and Script Concordance Test in digital health education. Drawing on the expertise of URN, CAU, and their public health and digital research laboratories and partners, the SaNuRN project represents a platform for continuous innovation, including telemedicine training and living labs with virtual and interactive professional activities. The SaNuRN project provides a comprehensive, personalized 30-hour training package for health and paramedical students, addressing all 70 FNRDH competencies. The program is enhanced using AI and NLP to create virtual patients and professionals for digital healthcare simulation. SaNuRN teaching materials are open-access. The project collaborates with academic institutions worldwide to develop educational material in digital health in English and multilingual formats. SaNuRN offers a practical and persuasive training approach to meet the current digital health education requirements.