Spectral temporal graph neural network for multivariate agricultural price forecasting / Rede neural de gráfico temporal espectral para previsão de preços agrícolas multivariados

Multivariate time series forecasting has an important role in many real-world domains. Especially, price prediction has always been on the focus of researchers. Yet, it is a challenging task that requires the capturing of intra-series and inter-series correlations. Most of the models in literature focus only on the correlation in temporal domain. In this paper, we have curated a new dataset from the official website of Turkish Ministry of Commerce. The dataset consists of daily prices and trade volume of vegetables and covers 1791 days between January 1, 2018 and November 26, 2022. A Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (StemGNN) is employed on the curated dataset and the results are given in comparison to Convolutional neural networks (CNN), Long short-term memory (LSTM) and Random Forest models. GNN architecture achieved a state-of-the-art result such as mean absolute error (MAE): 1,37 and root mean squared error (RMSE): 1.94). To our knowledge, this is one of the few studies that investigates GNN for time series analysis and the first study in architecture field.

A previsão multivariada de séries temporais tem um papel importante em muitos domínios do mundo real. Especialmente, a previsão de preços sempre esteve no foco dos pesquisadores. No entanto, é uma tarefa desafiadora que requer a captura de correlações intra-séries e inter-séries. A maioria dos modelos na literatura foca apenas a correlação no domínio temporal. Neste artigo, selecionamos um novo conjunto de dados do site oficial do Ministério do Comércio Turco. O conjunto de dados consiste em preços diários e volume comercial de vegetais e abrange 1.791 dias entre 1º de janeiro de 2018 e 26 de novembro de 2022. Uma Rede Neural de Gráfico Temporal Espectral é empregada no conjunto de dados curado e os resultados são fornecidos em comparação com CNN, LSTM e Modelos de Floresta Aleatória. A arquitetura GNN alcançou um resultado de ponta (MAE: 1,37, RMSE: 1,94). Até onde sabemos, este é um dos poucos estudos que investiga GNN para análise de séries temporais e o primeiro estudo na área de arquitetura.

Tendências temporais e projeções de cesariana no Brasil, macrorregiões administrativas e unidades federativas / Temporal trends and projections of caesarean sections in Brazil, its administrative macro-regions, and federative units

Resumo Os estudos de tendência sobre a via de nascimento no Brasil têm revelado um cenário de sucessivos aumentos lineares nas proporções de cesariana. Entretanto, a possibilidade de mudanças na evolução temporal da via cirúrgica não tem sido considerada. Dessa forma, objetivou-se verificar possíveis pontos de inflexão na proporção de cesarianas no Brasil, macrorregiões e unidades federativas, bem como estimar suas projeções para o ano de 2030. Utilizou-se a série temporal com as cesarianas notificadas no Departamento de Informática do SUS no período de 1994 a 2019. Foram utilizados modelos autorregressivos integrados de médias móveis e de regressão joinpoint para obtenção de projeções e de tendências das proporções de cesariana, respectivamente. As proporções de cesarianas apresentaram tendência significativa de aumento ao longo dos 26 anos de estudo em todos os níveis de agregação. Por outro lado, quando se considera a formação de segmentos, observa-se tendência de estabilização no país e nas regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste, a partir de 2012. Norte e Nordeste apresentaram tendência de aumento e o Sudeste, de queda significativa. Projeções indicam que no ano de 2030, 57,4% dos nascimentos no país ocorrerão por via cirúrgica e que nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, serão observadas proporções superiores a 70%.

Abstract Trend studies on the model of birth in Brazil show a scenario of successive linear increases in cesarean rates. However, they ignore possible changes in the temporal evolution of this delivery modality. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate possible inflection points in cesarean rates in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federated units, as well as to estimate projections for 2030. A time series with information on cesarean sections from 1994 to 2019 from the SUS Department of Informatics was used. Autoregressive integrated moving average and joinpoint regression models were used to obtain cesarean rate projections and trends, respectively. Caesarean rates showed a significant upward trend over the 26 study years at all levels of aggregation. On the other hand, when considering the formation of segments, a stabilization trend was observed both in the country and in the South and Midwest regions, starting in 2012. Rates tended to increase in North and Northeast and significantly decrease in Southeast. Projections show that in 2030, 57.4% of births in Brazil will be cesarean, with rates higher than 70% in Southeast and South regions.

Scenarios of environmental deterioration in the Paraopeba River, in the three years after the breach of B1 tailings dam in Brumadinho (Minas Gerais, Brazil).

The collapse of B1 dam at the Córrego do Feijão mine of Vale, S.A., located in the Ferro-Carvão stream watershed (Brazil), released 11.7 Mm3 of tailings rich in iron and manganese, and 2.8 Mm3 entered the Paraopeba River 10 km downstream. Seeking to predict the evolution of environmental deterioration in the river since the dam break on January 25, 2019, the present study generated exploratory and normative scenarios based on predictive statistical models, and proposed mitigating measures and subsides to ongoing monitoring plans. The scenarios segmented the Paraopeba into three sectors: "anomalous" for distances ≤63.3 km from the B1 dam site, "transition" (63.3-155.3 km), and "natural" (meaning unimpacted by the mine tailings in 2019; >155.3 km). The exploratory scenarios predicted a spread of the tailings until reaching the "natural" sector in the rainy season of 2021, and their containment behind the weir of Igarapé thermoelectric plant located in the "anomalous" sector, in the dry season. Besides, they predicted the deterioration of water quality and changes to the vigor of riparian forests (NDVI index) along the Paraopeba River, in the rainy season, and a restriction of these impacts to the "anomalous" sector in the dry season. The normative scenarios indicated exceedances of chlorophyll-a in the period January 2019-January 2022, but not exclusively caused by the rupture of B1 dam as they also occurred in areas not affected by the accident. Conversely, the manganese exceedances clearly flagged the dam failure, and persist. The most effective mitigating measure is likely the dredging of the tailings in the "anomalous" sector, but currently it represents solely 4.6 % of what has entered the river. Monitoring is paramount to update the scenarios until the system enters a route towards rewilding, and must include water and sediments, the vigor of riparian vegetation, and the dredging.

Previsões do número de cirurgias suspensas utilizando o software Power BI® em um hospital universitário / Predictions of the number of suspended surgeries using software Power BI® in a university hospital / Predicciones del número de cirugías suspendidas utilizando software Power BI® en un hospital universitario

Objetivo: analisar as cirurgias suspensas, realizando previsões futuras de três meses, a partir de outubro de 2022, através de um gráfico de linhas utilizando o software Power BI®. Método: se utilizou a técnica de médias moveis ponderada, alisamento exponencial simples, utilizando a ferramenta gráfico de linhas do Power BI®, com intervalo de confiança de 95% e previsões de três meses. Resultados: os resultados demostraram que existem diferentes etapas para construir previsões e alguns pré-requisitos devem ser preenchidos, foram encontradas as seguintes previsões com seus respectivos intervalos de confiança novembro 134(97,172), dezembro 141(102,180), janeiro 147(106.188). Conclusão: a utilização de previsões pode ser uma ferramenta útil para a tomada de decisão, prever problemas e sempre necessário na gestão de um hospital, podendo até suprimir gastos se antecipando a uma variedade de problemas.

Objective: to analyze the suspended surgeries, making future predictions of three months, starting in October 2022, through a line graph using the Power BI software. Method: we used the technique of weighted moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, using the Power BI® line graph tool, with a confidence interval of 95% and predictions of three months. Results: the results showed that there are different steps to construct predictions and some prerequisites must be fulfilled, the following predictions were found with their respective confidence intervals: November 134 (97,172), December 141 (102,180), January 147 (106,188). Conclusion: the use of forecasts can be a useful tool for decision making, predicting problems and always necessary in the management of a hospital, and can even suppress expenses in anticipation of a variety of problems.

Objetivos:analizar las cirugías suspendidas, haciendo predicciones futuras de tres meses, a partir de octubre de 2022, a través de un gráfico lineal utilizando el software Power BI®. Método: se utilizó la técnica de medias móviles ponderadas, suavizado exponencial simple, utilizando la herramienta de gráfico de líneas de Power BI®, con un intervalo de confianza del 95% y predicciones de tres meses. Resultados: los resultados mostraron que existen diferentes pasos para construir predicciones y se deben cumplir algunos requisitos previos, se encontraron las siguientes predicciones con sus respectivos intervalos de confianza: noviembre 134 (97,172), diciembre 141 (102,180), enero 147 (106,188). Conclusión: el uso de pronósticos puede ser una herramienta útil para la toma de decisiones, predicción de problemas y siempre necesaria en la gestión de un hospital, e incluso puede suprimir gastos en previsión de una variedad de problemas.

A New Approach to Enhanced Swarm Intelligence Applied to Video Target Tracking.

This work proposes a new approach to improve swarm intelligence algorithms for dynamic optimization problems by promoting a balance between the transfer of knowledge and the diversity of particles. The proposed method was designed to be applied to the problem of video tracking targets in environments with almost constant lighting. This approach also delimits the solution space for a more efficient search. A robust version to outliers of the double exponential smoothing (DES) model is used to predict the target position in the frame delimiting the solution space in a more promising region for target tracking. To assess the quality of the proposed approach, an appropriate tracker for a discrete solution space was implemented using the meta-heuristic Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (SFLA) adapted to dynamic optimization problems, named the Dynamic Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (DSFLA). The DSFLA was compared with other classic and current trackers whose algorithms are based on swarm intelligence. The trackers were compared in terms of the average processing time per frame and the area under curve of the success rate per Pascal metric. For the experiment, we used a random sample of videos obtained from the public Hanyang visual tracker benchmark. The experimental results suggest that the DSFLA has an efficient processing time and higher quality of tracking compared with the other competing trackers analyzed in this work. The success rate of the DSFLA tracker is about 7.2 to 76.6% higher on average when comparing the success rate of its competitors. The average processing time per frame is about at least 10% faster than competing trackers, except one that was about 26% faster than the DSFLA tracker. The results also show that the predictions of the robust DES model are quite accurate.

How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives.

This paper offers perspectives on the development of low-carbon energy technology in Brazil, pinpointing changes that have occurred since our former publication in 2011. It takes a fresh approach in terms of how likely Brazil will achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions Commitments in the energy sector. Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish their pledged NDC and contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Based on official reports and databases of energy development projections in Brazil and the socioeconomic context, we discuss what can be expected for the future of the Brazilian energy sector, the probability of implementing selected technologies, and the prospects of reaching the NDC targets for 2025 and 2030. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the current stage of development of these technologies, main directions, and bottlenecks in Brazil. Analyses have shown that the Brazilian renewable matrix tends to remain significant, driven by the development of solar and mostly small hydroelectric power sources, as well as different types of biomass. In addition, the system will include the replacement of thermoelectric plants powered by diesel and fuel oil by natural gas plants. The prospects for Brazil's official energy plan for 2027 are aligned with the reference technology scenario, which represents the business as usual scenario. Despite this, low-carbon technologies could be implemented far beyond the NDC's goals, given the abundance of renewable natural resources in the country.

Notas sobre o futuro do SUS: breve exame de caminhos e descaminhos trilhados em um horizonte de incertezas e desalentos / The future of the Brazilian Health System: a short review of its pathways towards an uncertain and discouraging horizon

Resumo Este artigo apresenta uma reflexão sobre o futuro do SUS, baseada em exercícios prospectivos desenvolvidos pela iniciativa Brasil Saúde Amanhã da Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. O texto faz uma breve revisão de caminhos e descaminhos percorridos pelo SUS, tendo como marco a Constituição Federal de 1988. Destaca os movimentos pela descentralização e a subtração de recursos da saúde que reduziu a política de incremento de gastos; e acentua os arranjos públicos e privados de financiamento e provisão de serviços que resultaram na privatização setorial decorrente, principalmente, de políticas econômicas articuladas com a concessão de benefícios e tributos. Analisa o financiamento do setor público através das sucessivas emendas constitucionais que resultaram na destruição da proteção social e no enfraquecimento do setor Saúde. Para o futuro, o texto considera o envelhecimento populacional e analisa tendências no perfil epidemiológico, com as consequentes mudanças no modelo de cuidados de atenção à saúde. O artigo conclui apontando os resultados do estrangulamento fiscal na organização do sistema de cuidados e a necessidade da reversão de dispositivos legais que obstaculizam o mandamento constitucional.

Abstract This article reflects on the future of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, acronym in Portuguese), based on the foresight exercises conducted by the Brasil Saúde Amanhã initiative of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. The text briefly reviews some paths followed by the SUS as referred to in the Federal Constitution of 1988. It highlights the movement towards the decentralization of care and the constraint of health financial resources that reduced policies of increasing public expenditures. It examines the public and private arrangements for financing and provision of services that have resulted in sectoral privatization, mainly from economic policies articulated with concession of fiscal benefits. It analyzes the changes in the public sector financing through successive constitutional amendments that resulted in the weakening of established social protection policies, particularly of the health sector. For the future, the text considers population aging and analyzes trends in the epidemiological profile, with consequent changes in the health care paradigm. The article concludes by pointing out the consequences of fiscal strangling in the organization of the healthcare system and the need to reverse legal provisions that hamper the fulfillment of the constitutional mandate for equity and universality.

Biometeorological forecasts for health surveillance and prevention of meteor-tropic effects.

An early method of biometeorological forecasts was developed for Cuba during the late 90s. It was based on the relationship between the daily occurrence of massive health crisis and the magnitude of the 24-h differences of partial density of oxygen in the air (PODA index). Ten years later, applying new technological facilities, a new model was developed in order to offer operational biometeorological forecast to Cuban health institutions. After a satisfactory validation process, the official bioforecast service to health institutions in Villa Clara province began on February of 2012. The effectiveness had different success levels: for the bronchial asthma crisis (94%), in the hypertensive crisis (88%), with the cerebrovascular illnesses (85%), as well as migraines (82%) and in case of cardiovascular diseases (75%) were acceptable. Since 2008, the application of the model was extended to other regions of the world, including some national applications. Furthermore, it allowed the beginning of regional monitoring of meteor-tropic effects, following the occurrence and movement of areas with higher weather contrasts, defined according to the normalized scale of PODA index. The paper describes the main regional results already available, with emphasis in the observed meteor-tropic effects increasing in all regions during recent years. It coincides with the general increase of energy imbalance in the whole climate system. Finally, the paper describes the current development of new global biometeorological forecast services.

Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique.

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.

Correcting and combining time series forecasters.

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not captured by each model, it is yet possible that such supposition is violated. The present paper introduces a two-step method for correcting and combining forecasting models. Firstly, the stochastic process underlying the bias of each predictive model is built according to a recursive ARIMA algorithm in order to achieve a white noise behavior. At each iteration of the algorithm the best ARIMA adjustment is determined according to a given information criterion (e.g. Akaike). Then, in the light of the corrected predictions, it is considered a maximum likelihood combined estimator. Applications involving single ARIMA and artificial neural networks models for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, S&P500 Index, Google Stock Value, and Nasdaq Index series illustrate the usefulness of the proposed framework.

Previsões meteorológicas do Modelo Eta para subsidiar o uso de modelos de previsão agrícola no Centro-Sul do Brasil / Eta model forecasts as input to crop models for the Mid-Southern region of Brazil

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a precipitação pluvial e as temperaturas máximas e mínimas previstas pelo Modelo Eta para até 120 dias de previsão em 24 localidades distribuídas na região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A avaliação se baseia na comparação de séries históricas de chuva e temperaturas de 1997 a 2002, com as previsões de 30, 60 e 120 dias de antecedência do Modelo Eta para as 24 localidades. Foram utilizados valores de média, mediana e desvio padrão nesta avaliação. Os resultados indicam que estas previsões geralmente subestimam as chuvas e a amplitude térmica nestas localidades. Os menores erros de precipitação pluvial se localizam mais destacadamente em Itumbiara e Rio Verde, enquanto que os maiores, em Porangatu e Manduri. Por outro lado, os menores erros de temperatura máxima se localizam destacadamente em Brasília, Manduri e Piracicaba, enquanto que os maiores ocorrem em Barreiras e Porangatu. Apesar de o modelo apresentar erros sistemáticos nas previsões de temperaturas, estes erros podem ser removidos para que os valores corrigidos possam ser introduzidos nos modelos de culturas.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the 120-day precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts by Eta Model over 24 locations around the Mid-Southern of Brazil. The evaluation was based on comparing observed time series of precipitation and temperatures from 1997 to 2002 to 30, 60 and 120-day forecasts of Eta Model over these 24 locations. Mean, median and standard deviation were used in the evaluation. The results show that these forecasts generally underestimate rain and temperature range. The smallest precipitation errors occurred in Itumbiara and Rio Verde, whereas the largest errors occurred in Porangatu and Manduri. The smallest maximum temperature errors occurred in Brasília, Manduri and Piracicaba whereas the largest errors in Barreiras and Porangatu. Despite the systematic errors exhibited by the precipitation and temperature forecasts, these errors can be removed and the corrected values input into the crop models.

Previsões meteorológicas do Modelo Eta para subsidiar o uso de modelos de previsão agrícola no Centro-Sul do Brasil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the 120-day precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts by Eta Model over 24 locations around the Mid-Southern of Brazil. The evaluation was based on comparing observed time series of precipitation and temperatures from 1997 to 2002 to 30, 60 and 120-day forecasts of Eta Model over these 24 locations. Mean, median and standard deviation were used in the evaluation. The results show that these forecasts generally underestimate rain and temperature range. The smallest precipitation errors occurred in Itumbiara and Rio Verde, whereas the largest errors occurred in Porangatu and Manduri. The smallest maximum temperature errors occurred in Brasília, Manduri and Piracicaba whereas the largest errors in Barreiras and Porangatu. Despite the systematic errors exhibited by the precipitation and temperature forecasts, these errors can be removed and the corrected values input into the crop models.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a precipitação pluvial e as temperaturas máximas e mínimas previstas pelo Modelo Eta para até 120 dias de previsão em 24 localidades distribuídas na região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A avaliação se baseia na comparação de séries históricas de chuva e temperaturas de 1997 a 2002, com as previsões de 30, 60 e 120 dias de antecedência do Modelo Eta para as 24 localidades. Foram utilizados valores de média, mediana e desvio padrão nesta avaliação. Os resultados indicam que estas previsões geralmente subestimam as chuvas e a amplitude térmica nestas localidades. Os menores erros de precipitação pluvial se localizam mais destacadamente em Itumbiara e Rio Verde, enquanto que os maiores, em Porangatu e Manduri. Por outro lado, os menores erros de temperatura máxima se localizam destacadamente em Brasília, Manduri e Piracicaba, enquanto que os maiores ocorrem em Barreiras e Porangatu. Apesar de o modelo apresentar erros sistemáticos nas previsões de temperaturas, estes erros podem ser removidos para que os valores corrigidos possam ser introduzidos nos modelos de culturas.

Previsões meteorológicas do Modelo Eta para subsidiar o uso de modelos de previsão agrícola no Centro-Sul do Brasil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the 120-day precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts by Eta Model over 24 locations around the Mid-Southern of Brazil. The evaluation was based on comparing observed time series of precipitation and temperatures from 1997 to 2002 to 30, 60 and 120-day forecasts of Eta Model over these 24 locations. Mean, median and standard deviation were used in the evaluation. The results show that these forecasts generally underestimate rain and temperature range. The smallest precipitation errors occurred in Itumbiara and Rio Verde, whereas the largest errors occurred in Porangatu and Manduri. The smallest maximum temperature errors occurred in Brasília, Manduri and Piracicaba whereas the largest errors in Barreiras and Porangatu. Despite the systematic errors exhibited by the precipitation and temperature forecasts, these errors can be removed and the corrected values input into the crop models.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a precipitação pluvial e as temperaturas máximas e mínimas previstas pelo Modelo Eta para até 120 dias de previsão em 24 localidades distribuídas na região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A avaliação se baseia na comparação de séries históricas de chuva e temperaturas de 1997 a 2002, com as previsões de 30, 60 e 120 dias de antecedência do Modelo Eta para as 24 localidades. Foram utilizados valores de média, mediana e desvio padrão nesta avaliação. Os resultados indicam que estas previsões geralmente subestimam as chuvas e a amplitude térmica nestas localidades. Os menores erros de precipitação pluvial se localizam mais destacadamente em Itumbiara e Rio Verde, enquanto que os maiores, em Porangatu e Manduri. Por outro lado, os menores erros de temperatura máxima se localizam destacadamente em Brasília, Manduri e Piracicaba, enquanto que os maiores ocorrem em Barreiras e Porangatu. Apesar de o modelo apresentar erros sistemáticos nas previsões de temperaturas, estes erros podem ser removidos para que os valores corrigidos possam ser introduzidos nos modelos de culturas.

Previsões meteorológicas do Modelo Eta para subsidiar o uso de modelos de previsão agrícola no Centro-Sul do Brasil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the 120-day precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts by Eta Model over 24 locations around the Mid-Southern of Brazil. The evaluation was based on comparing observed time series of precipitation and temperatures from 1997 to 2002 to 30, 60 and 120-day forecasts of Eta Model over these 24 locations. Mean, median and standard deviation were used in the evaluation. The results show that these forecasts generally underestimate rain and temperature range. The smallest precipitation errors occurred in Itumbiara and Rio Verde, whereas the largest errors occurred in Porangatu and Manduri. The smallest maximum temperature errors occurred in Brasília, Manduri and Piracicaba whereas the largest errors in Barreiras and Porangatu. Despite the systematic errors exhibited by the precipitation and temperature forecasts, these errors can be removed and the corrected values input into the crop models.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a precipitação pluvial e as temperaturas máximas e mínimas previstas pelo Modelo Eta para até 120 dias de previsão em 24 localidades distribuídas na região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A avaliação se baseia na comparação de séries históricas de chuva e temperaturas de 1997 a 2002, com as previsões de 30, 60 e 120 dias de antecedência do Modelo Eta para as 24 localidades. Foram utilizados valores de média, mediana e desvio padrão nesta avaliação. Os resultados indicam que estas previsões geralmente subestimam as chuvas e a amplitude térmica nestas localidades. Os menores erros de precipitação pluvial se localizam mais destacadamente em Itumbiara e Rio Verde, enquanto que os maiores, em Porangatu e Manduri. Por outro lado, os menores erros de temperatura máxima se localizam destacadamente em Brasília, Manduri e Piracicaba, enquanto que os maiores ocorrem em Barreiras e Porangatu. Apesar de o modelo apresentar erros sistemáticos nas previsões de temperaturas, estes erros podem ser removidos para que os valores corrigidos possam ser introduzidos nos modelos de culturas.

Pronósticos biometeorológicos: vía para reducir la ocurrencia de crisis de salud. Caso Sagua La Grande / Biometeorological forecasts: a way of reducing occurrence of health crises. The Sagua La Grande case

En Cuba se ha producido un ascenso en los servicios médicos y el país muestra indicadores de salud comparables a los de los países más desarrollados. Se trabaja en un nuevo procedimiento, útil para seguir mejorando la salud de la población cubana. Se trata del método de pronósticos biometeorológicos, dirigido a ofrecer, con antelación suficiente a las instituciones de salud y servicios de emergencia médica, la información oportuna para la prevención y profilaxis de algunas enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles de alta incidencia en el país. Este método avisa hasta con 180 horas de anticipación, la ocurrencia de condiciones favorables para el desencadenamiento de crisis de salud, utiliza como indicador principal la variación en 24 horas de la densidad parcial del oxígeno en el aire, el tipo de situación sinóptica predominante y la ocurrencia de efectos locales de contaminación atmosférica. Para validar los resultados de estos pronósticos se viene desarrollando desde el 1 de diciembre de 2006, en las instituciones de salud del municipio de Sagua la Grande, provincia de Villa Clara, un estudio piloto donde se monitorea la ocurrencia diaria de varias enfermedades y su asociación con los cambios bruscos del estado del tiempo. Las enfermedades bajo estudio fueron: el asma bronquial, las enfermedades cardiovasculares, los accidentes cerebro-vasculares, las crisis hipertensivas, las cefaleas y algunos tipos de infecciones respiratorias agudas. Se muestra los resultados preliminares de la aplicación operativa del servicio de pronósticos biometeorológicos, inexistente en otras partes del mundo, en instituciones de salud del municipio Sagua La Grande, durante el período poco lluvioso (invierno) de 2006 a 2007.

There has been a rise of medical service provision in Cuba and the country shows health indicators comparable to those of the most developed nations. A new procedure that will be useful for continuos improvement of the Cuban population´s health is being worked out. It refers to the biometeorological forecast method aimed at providing health institutions and emergency services with early and timely information about the prevention and treatment of some non-communicable chronic diseases with high incidence in the country. Such a method can alert to favorable conditions for unleashing health crisis up to 180 hours in advance on the basis of the changes of partial air oxygen density within 24 hours, the type of prevailing synoptic situation and the local effects of the environmental pollution. In order to validate the results of these forecsts, a pilot study is being conducted from December 1st, 2006 in health centers located in Sagua La Grande municipality, which monitors daily occurence of several diseases and their association to sudden weather changes. The diseases under study were bronchial asthma, cardiovascular diseases, strokes, hypertension, headaches and some types of acute respiratory diseases. The preliminary satisfactory results of the operation of this biometeorological forecast service in health centers located in Sagua la Grande municipality during the little rain period (winter) from 2006 to 2007 were shown.

On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling: a case study for wheat

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influences rainfall distribution around the world. Using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) allows a probabilistic forecast of future rainfall that can be useful to managers of agricultural systems. Using wheat as an example, we show in this study how the SOI phase system, when combined with a cropping systems simulation capability, can be used operationally to Improve tactical crop management and hence increase farm profits and/or decrease production risks. We show the validity of the approach for two contrasting locations, namely Dalby in Northern Australian and Piracicaba in Brazil At Dalby, highest median yields were achieved following a rapidly rising SOI phase in April/May and lowest median yields following a consistently negative phase. Conversely, highest median yields at Piracicaba followed a near zero April/May phase and lowest median yields when the phase was consistently positive. We show how tactical management options can range from crop or cultivar choice to nitrogen management and marketing of the future wheat crop.

O fenômeno El Niño/Oscilação Sul influencia marcadamente a distribuição de chuvas no mundo. O uso de fases de índice de Oscilação Sul (IOS) permite uma previsão probabilística da precipitação pluvial futura, que pode ser útil para o manejo de sistemas agrícolas. Usando-se trigo como exemplo, foi demonstrado nesse estudo, como o sistema de fases IOS, quando combinado com modelos de simulação de sistemas de cultivo, pode ser usado para melhorar o manejo tático de culturas e assim aumentar os lucros e/ou diminuir os riscos da produção agrícola. A validade desse método é mostrada para dois locais diferentes, Dalby, na Austrália e Piracicaba, no Brasil. Em Dalby, os maiores rendimentos médios foram obtidos após um aumento rápido na fase IOS em abril/maio e os menores rendimentos médios após uma fase negativa consistente. Em Piracicaba, os maiores rendimentos médios foram alcançados após uma fase próxima a zero em abril/maio e os menores rendimentos médios, quando a fase foi consistentemente positiva. É mostrado como as opções de manejo tático podem variar da escolha de cultivares ao manejo de nitrogênio e de mercado da cultura de trigo.

On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling: a case study for wheat

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influences rainfall distribution around the world. Using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) allows a probabilistic forecast of future rainfall that can be useful to managers of agricultural systems. Using wheat as an example, we show in this study how the SOI phase system, when combined with a cropping systems simulation capability, can be used operationally to Improve tactical crop management and hence increase farm profits and/or decrease production risks. We show the validity of the approach for two contrasting locations, namely Dalby in Northern Australian and Piracicaba in Brazil At Dalby, highest median yields were achieved following a rapidly rising SOI phase in April/May and lowest median yields following a consistently negative phase. Conversely, highest median yields at Piracicaba followed a near zero April/May phase and lowest median yields when the phase was consistently positive. We show how tactical management options can range from crop or cultivar choice to nitrogen management and marketing of the future wheat crop.

O fenômeno El Niño/Oscilação Sul influencia marcadamente a distribuição de chuvas no mundo. O uso de fases de índice de Oscilação Sul (IOS) permite uma previsão probabilística da precipitação pluvial futura, que pode ser útil para o manejo de sistemas agrícolas. Usando-se trigo como exemplo, foi demonstrado nesse estudo, como o sistema de fases IOS, quando combinado com modelos de simulação de sistemas de cultivo, pode ser usado para melhorar o manejo tático de culturas e assim aumentar os lucros e/ou diminuir os riscos da produção agrícola. A validade desse método é mostrada para dois locais diferentes, Dalby, na Austrália e Piracicaba, no Brasil. Em Dalby, os maiores rendimentos médios foram obtidos após um aumento rápido na fase IOS em abril/maio e os menores rendimentos médios após uma fase negativa consistente. Em Piracicaba, os maiores rendimentos médios foram alcançados após uma fase próxima a zero em abril/maio e os menores rendimentos médios, quando a fase foi consistentemente positiva. É mostrado como as opções de manejo tático podem variar da escolha de cultivares ao manejo de nitrogênio e de mercado da cultura de trigo.