Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians.

Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.

Uso del análisis comparativo del riesgo de extinción para priorizar la reevaluación de los anfibios en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen El análisis del riesgo de extinción de una especie con base en la Lista Roja (LR) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) es clave para guiar las políticas de conservación y reducir la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, este proceso demanda recursos y requiere de actualizaciones continuas, lo que se complica conforme se añaden especies nuevas a la LR. Los métodos automáticos, como los análisis comparativos usados para predecir la categoría de la especie en la LR, pueden ser una alternativa eficiente para mantener actualizados los análisis. Usamos a los anfibios como grupo de estudio para predecir cuáles especies tienen mayor probabilidad de cambiar de categoría en la LR y que, por lo tanto, se debería priorizar su reevaluación. Usamos las características biológicas de la especie, las variables ambientales e indicadores climáticos y del cambio de uso de suelo como predictores de la categoría en la LR. Elaboramos una predicción de ensamble de la categoría en la LR de la UICN para cada especie mediante la combinación de cuatro algoritmos diferentes: modelos de vínculo acumulativo, menor número de cuadros filogenéticos generalizados, bosques aleatorios y redes neurales. Con la comparación entre las categorías de la LR y la predicción de ensamble y con considerar la incertidumbre entre los algoritmos identificamos especies que deberían ser prioridad para futuras reevaluaciones con base en el desfase entre los valores predichos y los observados. Las variables de predicción más importantes entre los modelos fueron el tamaño de la distribución de la especie y su configuración espacial, las características biológicas, el cambio climático y el cambio de uso de suelo. Comparamos nuestra propuesta de índice de priorización y los cambios predichos en la LR con las reevaluaciones independientes de la LR de la UICN y descubrimos un buen desempeño tanto para la priorización como para la direccionalidad predicha de los cambios en las categorías de la LR. El modelo de ensamble de la categoría de la LR esa una herramienta prometedora para priorizar la reevaluación de las especies a la vez que considera la incertidumbre del modelo. Esta estrategia puede generalizarse para aplicarse a todos los taxones de la LR de la UICN y a los análisis regionales y nacionales. También podría mejorar la asignación de los recursos humanos y económicos limitados disponibles para mantener actualizada la LR de la UICN.

Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change.

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.

Los mamíferos más amenazados de Europa y su dependencia del movimiento para adaptarse al cambio climático Resumen La tasa actual del cambio climático y las proyecciones climáticas pesimistas confrontan a los gestores y a los planeadores de la conservación con la necesidad de integrar este cambio a la ya de por sí compleja toma de decisiones. La predicción y priorización de áreas con estabilidad climática y áreas con probabilidad de facilitarles ajustes adaptativos de distribución a las especies son etapas importantes para maximizar los resultados de conservación y racionalizar la gestión futura de las tierras. Determiné las trayectorias espaciales adaptativas (TEA) para la mayoría de los mamíferos terrestres más amenazados de Europa con la persistencia esperada más alta hasta el 2080. Diseñé los siguientes índices de redes espaciales simples para la evaluación de especies en aquellas TEA: persistencia total, proporción de TEA que brindan adaptación in situ (refugios estables), número de TEA que convergen en un sitio y relación entre la convergencia de TEA y la persistencia con las áreas protegidas, las redes Natura 2000 y Emerald y las áreas de poca perturbación humana. Comparé el desempeño de las TEA de gran persistencia con un escenario en el que las especies permanecían dentro de las áreas con las mejores condiciones climáticas en el periodo de línea base. Las mil TEA más persistentes para cada una de las 39 especies cubrieron la quinta parte de Europa. Las áreas con el mayor potencial adaptativo (es decir, gran persistencia, estabilidad y convergencia de TEA) no siempre se traslaparon para todas las especies. Estas regiones predominaron en el suroeste de Europa, Europa Central y Escandinavia, con algunas ocurrencias en el este de Europa. Para la mayoría de las especies, la persistencia de las áreas con el mejor clima posible durante el periodo de línea base fue menor que dentro de las TEA, lo que resalta su dependencia por los movimientos adaptativos. Destaca que las áreas de conservación (en particular las áreas protegidas) cubrieron sólo pequeñas fracciones de la persistencia de las especies entre las TEA y los núcleos de adaptación climática (es decir, las áreas de gran convergencia de TEA) contaban con muy poca representación dentro de la mayoría de las áreas de conservación. Estos resultados enfatizan la necesidad de realizar análisis de las dinámicas espaciales de las especies bajo el cambio climático.

Ajuste fino de un modelo de producción vocal para estimar el estrés de impacto utilizando un método metaheurístico

Introducción: En modelos de producción vocal que emplean estructuras de resorte-masa-amortiguador, la precisión en la determinación de coeficientes de amortiguamiento que se asemejen a las características fisiológicas de las cuerdas vocales es crucial, teniendo en cuenta posibles variaciones en la representación de la viscoelasticidad. Objetivo: Este estudio tiene como objetivo realizar un ajuste paramétrico de un modelo de producción vocal basado en un sistema de resorte-masa-amortiguador que incorpora interacción con la presión subglótica, con el fin de modelar de manera precisa las fuerzas de colisión ejercidas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación. Método: Se utilizó un algoritmo de búsqueda metaheurística para la síntesis paramétrica. El algoritmo se aplicó a los coeficientes de elasticidad c1 y c2, así como a los coeficientes de amortiguamiento ε1 y ε2, que se correlacionan directamente con las matrices de masa del modelo. Esto facilita el ajuste de la composición de las cuerdas para lograr un comportamiento fisiológico deseado. Resultados: El comportamiento del sistema vocal para cada ciclo de simulación se comparó con un estándar predefinido en condiciones normales. El algoritmo determinó el punto final de la simulación evaluando las discrepancias entre características clave de las señales obtenidas y las deseadas. Conclusión: El ajuste paramétrico permitió la aproximación del comportamiento fisiológico de la producción vocal, proporcionando estimaciones de las fuerzas de impacto experimentadas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación.

Introduction: In vocal production models employing spring-mass-damper frameworks, precision in determining damping coefficients that align with physiological vocal fold characteristics is crucial, accounting for potential variations in the representation of viscosity-elasticity properties. Objective: This study aims to conduct a parametric fitting of a vocal production model based on a mass-spring-damper system incorporating subglottic pressure interaction, with the purpose of accurately modeling the collision forces exerted by vocal folds during phonation. Method: A metaheuristic search algorithm was employed for parametric synthesis. The algorithm was applied to elasticity coefficients c1 and c2, as well as damping coefficients ε1 and ε2, which directly correlate with the mass matrices of the model. This facilitates the adjustment of fold composition to achieve desired physiological behavior. Results: The vocal system's behavior for each simulation cycle was compared to a predefined standard under normal conditions. The algorithm determined the simulation endpoint by evaluating discrepancies between key features of the obtained signals and the desired ones. Conclusion: Parametric fitting enabled the approximation of physiological vocal production behavior, providing estimates of the impact forces experienced by vocal folds during phonation.

Simulating the efficacy of wolf-dog hybridization management with individual-based modeling.

Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.

Simulación de la eficiencia de la gestión de híbridos de perro y lobo con modelos basados en individuos Resumen La hibridación introgresiva entre perros y lobos es un tema de conservación por las posibles consecuencias evolutivas deletéreas a largo plazo. Las leyes europeas requieren que estos híbridos se mitiguen mediante una gestión efectiva. Desarrollamos un modelo basado en individuos (MBI) para simular el ciclo de vida del lobo gris que además incorpora los aspectos sociales de los lobos que afectan las tasas de hibridación (p. ej.: la disolución de las manadas después de la muerte de uno o ambos reproductores) con el objetivo de guiar las decisiones de gestión de estos híbridos. Aplicamos nuestro modelo con la proyección de las dinámicas de hibridación en una población local de lobos bajo diferentes selecciones de pareja y escenarios de inmigración y contrastamos los resultados de la extirpación de individuos mezclados con su esterilización y liberación. En varios escenarios, la falta de gestión llevó a una mezcla completa, mientras que las intervenciones de gestión reactiva redujeron de forma efectiva la mezcla en las poblaciones de lobos. Sin embargo, la eficiencia de la gestión dependió en su mayoría de la selección de pareja y el número y nivel de mezcla de los individuos inmigrantes a la población de lobos. La inclusión de la mortalidad antropogénica que afecta a los individuos parentales y mezclados (p. ej.: la cacería) incrementó la probabilidad de que se disolviera la manada y por lo tanto incrementara la probabilidad del entrecruzamiento con perros o individuos mezclados, además de que aumentó la hibridación y las tasas de introgresión en todos los escenarios de simulación. Reconocemos la necesidad de refinar el modelo (parametrización adecuada, análisis detallados de sensibilidad y validación del modelo robusto) para generar recomendaciones de gestión aplicables en escenarios reales y mantenemos la confianza en el potencial de nuestro modelo como una herramienta valiosa de conservación que podría aplicarse a diferentes situaciones y especies que enfrentan amenazas similares.

Identification, spatial distribution, and associated factors of urban protected areas in China.

The increasing proximity between protected areas (PAs) and urban areas, which can lead to urban protected areas (UPAs), is now commonplace. Use of Euclidean distance to measure the distance between PAs and cities has not correctly portrayed the spatial relationship between PAs and cities. We devised an isochronous circle model to accurately measure the distance between 2706 national PAs in 5 categories and 2844 cities in China based on human accessibility to identify urban human activity-influenced protected areas (UHAIPAs) and to quantitatively analyze their distribution patterns and relationships with China's economy, population distribution patterns, and urban development indicators. Most of the PAs in China were established near cities. Of 2746 PAs in China, 18.35% (n = 504) became UPAs, and 58.27% (n = 1600), 16.72% (n = 459), and 3.31% (n = 91) of PAs were within 0-30, 30-60, and 60-90 min, respectively. Both UPAs and UHAIPAs in China in general exhibited obvious spatial aggregation characteristics (e.g., wetland parks and scenic areas), and there was a significant spatial dependence effect among characteristics. The degree of spatial distribution and aggregation of UPAs was correlated with 16 indicators across urban economic development, urban natural substrate, and urban policy support factors. Based on the results of our study, we call for various governments and scholars to focus on areas where wetland parks and PAs overlap with urban boundaries. It is important to emphasize the potential link between the development of agriculture, forestry, livestock and fisheries industries, and UPAs. Overall, we believe that examining the accessibility of PAs can more accurately measure the distance between PAs and cities, and more realistically reflect the possible impacts of urban human activities on PAs, which is helpful for strengthening the conservation and management of PAs.

Identificación, distribución espacial y factores asociados de las áreas urbanas protegidas en China Resumen La creciente proximidad entre las áreas protegidas (AP) y las áreas urbanas, que puede derivar en áreas urbanas protegidas (AUP), es muy común hoy en día. La distancia euclidiana no ha representado correctamente la distancia entre las AP y las ciudades. Por lo anterior, diseñamos un modelo de círculo isócrono para medir con certeza la distancia entre 2706 AP nacionales en cinco categorías y 2844 ciudades de China con base en la accesibilidad humana para identificar las áreas urbanas protegidas con influencia de actividad humana (AUPIAH). También lo usamos para analizar cuantitativamente los patrones de distribución y su relación con la economía china, los patrones de distribución poblacional y los indicadores de desarrollo urbano. La mayoría de las AP en China están establecidas cerca de las ciudades. De las 2746 AP, el 18.35% (n = 504) se convirtieron en AUP y el 58.27% (n = 1600), 16.72% (n = 459) y 3.31% (n = 91) se encontraban de 0­30 minutos, 30­60 y de 60­90 minutos de una ciudad, respectivamente. Tanto las AUP y las AUPIAH exhibieron características obvias de agregación espacial (p. ej.: parques de humedales y áreas escénicas) y hubo un efecto significativo de dependencia espacial entre dichas características. El nivel de distribución y agregación espacial de las AUP tuvo correlación con 16 indicadores de desarrollo económico urbano, sustrato natural urbano y factores de apoyo para las políticas urbanas. Con base en los resultados de nuestro estudio, hacemos un llamado para que diferentes gobiernos y académicos se enfoquen en las áreas en donde se traslapan las AP y los parques de humedales con los límites urbanos. Es importante resaltar la conexión potencial entre el desarrollo de la agricultura, silvicultura, ganadería y pesquería y las AUP. En general, consideramos que analizar la accesibilidad de las AP puede medir de forma más certera la distancia entre las AP y las ciudades, además de que refleja de forma más realista el posible impacto de las actividades humanas sobre las AP, lo cual es útil para fortalecer la conservación y gestión de las AP.

Development of a stepped care intervention model of evidence-based interventions for the management of posttraumatic stress in the Belgian Police.

Background: Police officers are frequently exposed to a wide variety of potentially traumatic events (PTE) and are therefore at a considerable risk of developing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous research estimated the point prevalence of PTSD in Belgian police officers at 7.4%, significantly higher than in the general population. An effective organisational strategy to manage posttraumatic stress is essential.Objective: We aimed to develop a novel organisational approach regarding traumatic stress for Belgian police, combining evidence-based strategies for the prevention and treatment of posttraumatic stress in a stepped care intervention model.Method: In a broad development process, we combined scientific literature, case studies of best practices from other police organisations with insights gathered from a number of expert panels, thematic working groups and feedback groups.Results: A comprehensive stepped care intervention model was developed, consisting of evidence-based interventions for the prevention and treatment of posttraumatic stress.Conclusions: The intervention model is a promising organisational strategy for the management of posttraumatic stress in police organisations based on evidence-based interventions. Its effectiveness will be studied in the coming years.

Police officers are at considerable risk of developing PTSD as they are consistently exposed to a wide array of PTE.An adequate organisational response to manage the consequences of this exposure as much as possible is essential.We developed a comprehensive stepped care intervention model consisting of evidence-based interventions, based on scientific literature, best practices in other police organisations, and thorough expert review.

Survival and its relationship with the type of peritoneal solute transfer rate, in patients with chronic kidney disease incident on peritoneal dialysis therapy in RTS Colombia between the years 2007-2017.

INTRODUCTION: In some studies, the peritoneal solute transfer rate (PSTR) through the peritoneal membrane has been related to an increased risk of mortality. It has been observed in the literature that those patients with rapid diffusion of solutes through the peritoneal membrane (high/fast transfer) and probably those with high average transfer characterized by the Peritoneal Equilibrium Test (PET) are associated with higher mortality compared to those patients who have a slow transfer rate. However, some authors have not documented this fact. In the present study, we want to evaluate the (etiological) relationship between the characteristics of peritoneal membrane transfer and mortality and survival of the technique in an incident population on peritoneal dialysis in RTS Colombia during the years 2007-2017 using a competing risk model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was carried out at RTS Colombia in the period between 2007 and 2017. In total, there were 8170 incident patients older than 18 years, who had a Peritoneal Equilibration Test (PET) between 28 and 180 days from the start of therapy. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were evaluated. The (etiological) relationship between the type of peritoneal solute transfer rate at the start of therapy and overall mortality and technique survival were analyzed using a competing risk model (cause-specific proportional hazard model described by Royston-Lambert). RESULTS: Patients were classified into four categories based on the PET result: Slow/Low transfer (16.0%), low average (35.4%), high average (32.9%), and High/Fast transfer (15.7%). During follow-up, with a median of 730 days, 3025 (37.02%) patients died, 1079 (13.2%) were transferred to hemodialysis and 661 (8.1%) were transplanted. In the analysis of competing risks, adjusted for age, sex, presence of DM, HTA, body mass index, residual function, albumin, hemoglobin, phosphorus, and modality of PD at the start of therapy, we found cause-specific HR (HRce) for high/fast transfer was 1.13 (95% CI 0.98-1.30) p = 0.078, high average 1.08 (95% CI 0.96-1.22) p = 0.195, low average 1.09 (95% CI 0.96-1.22) p = 0.156 compared to the low/slow transfer rate. For technique survival, cause-specific HR for high/rapid transfer of 1.22 (95% CI 0.98-1.52) p = 0.66, high average HR was 1.10 (95% CI 0.91-1.33) p = 0.296, low average HR of 1.03 (95% CI 0.85-1.24) p = 0.733 compared with the low/slow transfer rate, adjusted for age, sex, DM, HTA, BMI, residual renal function, albumin, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and PD modality at start of therapy. Non-significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: When evaluating the etiological relationship between the type of peritoneal solute transfer rate and overall mortality and survival of the technique using a competing risk model, we found no etiological relationship between the characteristics of peritoneal membrane transfer according to the classification given by Twardowski assessed at the start of peritoneal dialysis therapy and overall mortality or technique survival in adjusted models. The analysis will then be made from the prognostic model with the purpose of predicting the risk of mortality and survival of the technique using the risk subdistribution model (Fine & Gray).

Cultural psychological factors in posttraumatic symptom development and expression: a study protocol.

Introduction: Cultural factors were shown to be particularly relevant for the development and expression of posttraumatic stress. Recently, the concept of cultural scripts of trauma has been introduced, which proposes that trauma sequelae elements may be sequentially linked and specifically associated with cultural factors. Furthermore, a cascade model is proposed, including trauma exposure, demographic characteristics, cultural affiliation, and trauma-related value orientations as influencing factors of posttraumatic development. The purpose of this Network Project is to investigate cultural psychological factors that contribute to the expression of posttraumatic stress.Methods: The present Network Project implements a mixed methods approach and will be conducted in 5 different study sites, including Switzerland, Israel, Georgia, China, and East Africa. In sub-study I, the cultural scripts of traumatic stress inventories (CSTIs) will be developed. These scales provide a pool of trauma sequelae elements for each cultural group. For this purpose, focus groups with trauma survivors and trauma experts will be conducted and analysed using qualitative research methods. Sub-study II implements a validation analysis of the CSTIs and the empirical investigation of a cultural cascade model. This quantitative approach will include a larger sample of individuals who experienced traumatic life events.Discussion: This contribution is timely and enriches the knowledge of trauma and culture. Future publications of this Network Project will address trauma sequelae from a cultural perspective and provide diagnostic and psychotherapeutic implications.

This paper presents a Network Project that investigates cultural factors in posttraumatic sequelae.The Network Project encompasses an innovative research design with both qualitative and quantitative methods.New developments in the field of cultural clinical psychology are introduced, including cultural scripts of trauma and a cascade model of cultural factors in posttraumatic symptom expression.

An assessment of future rewilding potential in the United Kingdom.

Restoring ecosystems is an imperative for addressing biodiversity loss and climate change, and achieving the targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. One form of restoration, rewilding, may have particular promise but may also be precluded by requirements for other forms of land use now or in the future. This opportunity space is critical but challenging to assess. We explored the potential area available for rewilding in Great Britain until the year 2080 with a multisectoral land-use model with several distinct climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. By 2080, areas from 5000 to 7000 km2 were either unmanaged or managed in ways that could be consistent with rewilding across scenarios without conflicting with the provision of ecosystem services. Beyond these areas, another 24,000-42,000 km2 of extensive upland management could provide additional areas for rewilding if current patterns of implementation hold in the future. None of these areas, however, coincided reliably with ecosystems of priority for conservation: peatlands, ancient woodlands, or wetlands. Repeatedly, these ecosystems were found to be vulnerable to conversion. Our results are not based on an assumption of support for or benefits from rewilding and do not account for disadvantages, such as potential losses of cultural landscapes or traditional forms of management, that were beyond the modeled ecosystem services. Nevertheless, potential areas for rewilding emerge in a variety of ways, from intensification elsewhere having a substantial but inadvertent land-sparing effect, popular demand for environmental restoration, or a desire for exclusive recreation among the wealthy elite. Our findings therefore imply substantial opportunities for rewilding in the United Kingdom but also a need for interventions to shape the nature and extent of that rewilding to maintain priority conservation areas and societal objectives.

Una evaluación del potencial futuro de la resilvestración en el Reino Unido Resumen La restauración de ecosistemas es urgente para abordar la pérdida de biodiversidad y el cambio climático, así como para lograr los objetivos del Marco Mundial de Biodiversidad de Kunming­Montreal. Un método de restauración, la resilvestración, puede ser particularmente prometedor, aunque también puede ser excluido por los requerimientos para otras formas de uso de suelo actuales o en el futuro. Este espacio de oportunidad es crítico, pero también un reto para evaluar. Exploramos el área potencial disponible para el resilvestrado en Gran Bretaña hasta el año 2080 con un modelo multisectorial de uso de suelo con varios escenarios climáticos y socioeconómicos. Para este año, las áreas entre 5,000 y 7,000 km2 no estaban gestionadas o lo estaban, pero de manera que podían ser consistentes con el resilvestrado de los escenarios sin conflictuar el suministro de servicios ambientales. Más allá de estas áreas, otros 24,000­42,000 km2 de gestión extensiva tierra arriba podrían proporcionar áreas adicionales para el resilvestrado si los patrones actuales de implementación siguen en pie en el futuro. Sin embargo, ninguna de estas áreas coincidió de manera confiable con los ecosistemas de prioridad para la conservación: las turberas, bosques antiguos o humedales. Estos ecosistemas aparecieron varias veces como vulnerables a la conversión. Nuestros resultados no están basados en una suposición de apoyo para o los beneficios de la resilvestración y no consideran las desventajas, como la pérdida potencial de paisajes culturales o las maneras tradicionales de manejo, que estaban fuera del alcance de los servicios ambientales modelados. Sin embargo, las áreas potenciales para el resilvestrado emergen en una variedad de formas, desde la intensificación en otros lugares con un efecto de ahorro de tierras sustancial pero inadvertido, la demanda popular por la restauración ambiental o el deseo de una recreación exclusiva entre la elite acaudalada. Por lo tanto, nuestros descubrimientos implican una oportunidad sustancial para la resilvestración en el Reino Unido, aunque también una necesidad de intervenciones para moldear la naturaleza y la extensión de ese resilvestrado para mantener las áreas prioritarias de conservación y los objetivos sociales.

Assessing the impact of preventative measures to limit the spread of Toxoplasma gondii in wild carnivores of Madagascar.

Novel multihost pathogens can threaten endangered wildlife species, as well as humans and domestic animals. The zoonotic protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii is transmitted by members of Felidae and can infect a large number of animal species, including humans. This parasite can have significant health consequences for infected intermediate hosts and could further endanger wild carnivore populations of Madagascar. Building on an empirical characterization of the prevalence of the pathogen in local mammals, we used mathematical models of pathogen transmission in a multihost community to compare preventative measures that aim to limit the spread of this parasite in wild carnivores. Specifically, we examined the effect of hypothetical cat vaccination and population control campaigns on reducing the risk of infection by T. gondii in wild Eupleridae. Our model predicted that the prevalence of exposure to T. gondii in cats would be around 72% and that seroprevalence would reach 2% and 43% in rodents and wild carnivores, respectively. Reducing the rodent population in the landscape by half may only decrease the prevalence of T. gondii in carnivores by 10%. Similarly, cat vaccination and reducing the population of definitive hosts had limited impact on the prevalence of T. gondii in wild carnivorans of Madagascar. A significant reduction in prevalence would require extremely high vaccination, low turnover, or both in the cat population. Other potential control methods of T. gondii in endangered Eupleridae include targeted vaccination of wild animals but would require further investigation. Eliminating the threat entirely will be difficult because of the ubiquity of cats and the persistence of the parasite in the environment.

Evaluación del impacto de las medidas preventivas para limitar el contagio de Toxoplasma gondii en los carnívoros silvestres de Madagascar Resumen Los patógenos novedosos con múltiples hospederos pueden amenazar tanto a las especies silvestres como a los humanos y a los animales domésticos. Los miembros de la familia Felidae transmiten el protozoario parásito Toxoplasma gondii, el cual puede infectar a un gran número de especies animales, incluyendo al humano. Este parásito puede generar consecuencias importantes para la salud en los hospederos intermediarios infectados y podría poner más en peligro a las poblaciones de carnívoros silvestres de Madagascar. Usamos modelos matemáticos de la transmisión de patógenos en una comunidad con múltiples hospederos a partir de una caracterización empírica de la prevalencia del patógeno en los mamíferos locales para comparar las medidas preventivas que buscan limitar la transmisión de este parásito en los carnívoros silvestres. En específico, examinamos el efecto de la vacunación hipotética de felinos y las campañas de control poblacional sobre la reducción del riesgo de infección de T. gondii en los Eupleridae silvestres. Nuestro modelo predijo que la prevalencia de la exposición a T. gondii en los felinos sería de un 72% y que la seroprevalencia llegaría al 2% y al 43% en los roedores y carnívoros silvestres, respectivamente. La reducción a la mitad de la población de roedores en el paisaje podría disminuir sólo en un 10% la prevalencia del protozoario en los carnívoros. De forma similar, la vacunación y la reducción de la población de hospederos definitivos tuvieron un impacto limitado sobre la prevalencia de T. gondii en los carnívoros silvestres de Madagascar. Una reducción significativa en la prevalencia requeriría que la población de felinos tuviera una vacunación extremadamente elevada, baja rotación, o ambas. Otros métodos potenciales de control de T. gondii en los Eupleridae incluyen la vacunación de animales silvestres, pero requieren de mayor investigación. La eliminación completa de la amenaza será difícil por la ubicuidad de los felinos y la persistencia del parásito en el ambiente.

Classification tree obtained by artificial intelligence for the prediction of heart failure after acute coronary syndromes. / Árboles de clasificación obtenidos mediante inteligencia artificial para la predicción de insuficiencia cardiaca tras el síndrome coronario agudo.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease is the leading cause of heart failure (HF), and tools are needed to identify patients with a higher probability of developing HF after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Artificial intelligence (AI) has proven to be useful in identifying variables related to the development of cardiovascular complications. METHODS: We included all consecutive patients discharged after ACS in two Spanish centers between 2006 and 2017. Clinical data were collected and patients were followed up for a median of 53months. Decision tree models were created by the model-based recursive partitioning algorithm. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 7,097 patients with a median follow-up of 53months (interquartile range: 18-77). The readmission rate for HF was 13.6% (964 patients). Eight relevant variables were identified to predict HF hospitalization time: HF at index hospitalization, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, glomerular filtration rate, age, Charlson index, hemoglobin, and left ventricular ejection fraction. The decision tree model provided 15 clinical risk patterns with significantly different HF readmission rates. CONCLUSIONS: The decision tree model, obtained by AI, identified 8 leading variables capable of predicting HF and generated 15 differentiated clinical patterns with respect to the probability of being hospitalized for HF. An electronic application was created and made available for free.

Real-life application of a stratification model for HIV care.

INTRODUCTION: HIV infection has become a chronic disease with a good long-term prognosis, necessitating a change in the care model. For this study, we applied a proposal for an Optimal Care Model (OCM) for people with HIV (PHIV), which includes tools for assessing patient complexity and their classification into profiles to optimize care provision. METHODS: Observational, cross-sectional, and retrospective study. Adult PHIV treated at the Tropical Medicine consultations at Ramón y Cajal Hospital from January 1 to June 30, 2023, were included. The complexity calculation and the stratification into profiles for each patient were done according to the OCM. RESULTS: Ninety-four participants were included, 76.6% cisgender men, with a median age of 41 years (range 23-76). Latin America and Africa were the main regions of origin (72.4%). 98% had an undetectable HIV viral load. The degree of complexity was 78.7% low, 11.7% medium, 1% high, and 8.5% extreme. The predominant profile was blue (64.9%), followed by lilac (11.7%), purple (6.3%), and green (4.3%). 7.4% were unclassifiable, of whom 57.2% had high/extreme complexity. Among the unclassifiable, mental health problems were the most common. CONCLUSIONS: The OCM tools for People Living with HIV (PLWH) allow for the classification and stratification of most patients in a consultation with a non-standard population. Patients who did not fit into the pre-established profiles presented high complexity. Creating a profile focused on mental health or mixed profiles could facilitate the classification of more patients.

Monitorización terapéutica de los fármacos biológicos en la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal. Documento de Posicionamiento del Grupo Español de Trabajo en Enfermedad de Crohn y Colitis Ulcerosa (GETECCU) / Therapeutic drug monitoring in inflammatory bowel diseases. Position statement of the Spanish Working Group on Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis

El tratamiento de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal (EII) ha sufrido una gran transformación tras la introducción de los fármacos biológicos. Gracias a ellos, los objetivos del tratamiento han evolucionado desde la respuesta y remisión clínica a objetivos más ambiciosos, como la remisión endoscópica o radiológica. Sin embargo, aunque los biológicos son muy eficaces, un porcentaje importante de pacientes no obtendrá una respuesta inicial o la perderá a lo largo del tiempo. Sabemos que existe una relación directa entre las concentraciones valle del biológico y su eficacia terapéutica, que cuanto más exigente sea el objetivo terapéutico serán necesarios niveles superiores del fármaco y que es frecuente la exposición insuficiente al mismo. La monitorización terapéutica de medicamentos biológicos, así como los modelos farmacocinéticos, nos brindan la posibilidad de ofrecer un enfoque personalizado del abordaje en pacientes con EII. Durante los últimos años se ha acumulado información relevante respecto a su utilidad durante o después de la inducción, así como en el mantenimiento del tratamiento biológico, en estrategias reactivas o proactivas y antes de la retirada o desintensificación del esquema.El objetivo de este documento es establecer recomendaciones sobre la utilidad de la monitorización terapéutica de biológicos en pacientes con EII, en los diferentes escenarios de la práctica clínica e identificar las áreas donde su utilidad es evidente, prometedora o controvertida. (AU)

The treatment of inflammatory bowel disease has undergone a significant transformation following the introduction of biologic drugs. Thanks to these drugs, treatment goals have evolved from clinical response and remission to more ambitious objectives, such as endoscopic or radiologic remission. However, even though biologics are highly effective, a significant percentage of patients will not achieve an initial response or may lose it over time. We know that there is a direct relationship between the trough concentrations of the biologic and its therapeutic efficacy, with more demanding therapeutic goals requiring higher drug levels, and inadequate exposure being common.Therapeutic drug monitoring of biologic medications, along with pharmacokinetic models, provides us with the possibility of offering a personalized approach to treatment for patients with IBD. Over the past few years, relevant information has accumulated regarding its utility during or after induction, as well as in the maintenance of biologic treatment, in reactive or proactive strategies, and prior to withdrawal or treatment de-escalation.The aim of this document is to establish recommendations regarding the utility of therapeutic drug monitoring of biologics in patients with inflammatory bowel disease, in different clinical practice scenarios, and to identify areas where its utility is evident, promising, or controversial. (AU)

External validation of the EFFECT mortality prediction scale in patients admitted for acute heart failure in Araba, Spain.

AIM: To validate the EFFECT (Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment) scales, which predict mortality at 1 month and 1 year after admission, in a defined cohort of patients admitted to the Araba University Hospital (HUA) with a diagnosis of acutely decompensated heart failure. METHOD: External validation study of a predictive model, in a retrospective cohort of patients admitted between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021. RESULTS: A total of 550 patients were included. The two scales demonstrated good overall discriminatory ability in our series, with an area under ROC (0.755 y 0.756) and values in Brier score (0.094 y 0.194) similar to the original series. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots and was also adequate. All this despite the fact that significant differences were observed in many clinical characteristics between our series and the original one. CONCLUSIONS: The EFFECT scales showed good predictive ability and transportability. The one-month prediction scale was also useful for predicting mortality at one year. For both time periods, mortality was similar in the groups established in the original as low and very low risk.

Fotogrametría de modelos dentales de yeso

El presente estudio busca definir los parámetros de la cámara fotográfica y encuadre de la imagen para generar fotografías estandarizadas a modelos dentales de yeso que permitan realizar mediciones intermaxilares a través de fotogrametría, y que estas distancias sean tan confiables y válidas como el registro físico. Se realizó medición directa de los modelos con compás de Korkhaus y medición indirecta a través de fotogrametría digital, evaluando si existía diferencia estadística entre ambas mediciones. Como resultado, no se observaron diferencias significativas entre el protocolo digital con un objetivo 100 mm y magnificación 1:4 en comparación con las mediciones directas, por lo que se concluye que con los parámetros seleccionados se logra una adecuada precisión en la fotogrametría respecto a la medición directa.

This study aims to compare the different parameters of the photographic camera with the digital image framing to standardize dental model photography, in order to take intermaxillary measurements through photogrammetry, and so that these distances are as reliable and valid as the physical record. Direct measurement of the models was made with a Korkhaus compass, and indirect measurement through digital photogrammetry, evaluating whether there was a statistical difference between both measurements. As a result, no significant differences were observed between the digital protocol with a 100 mm objective and 1:4 magnification and the direct measurements. It is concluded that with the selected parameters, adequate precision is achieved in photogrammetry, when compared to the direct measurement.

La orientación vocacional en la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar

La investigación se dirigió a resolver insuficiencias teóricas y metodológicas, relacionadas con la orientación vocacional hacia la carrera de Cultura Física, en el proceso formativo del estudiante preuniversitario de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar, pues el modelo de bachiller en este tipo de centros establece la necesidad de lograr una sólida preparación integral en los estudiantes, desde la formación docente y deportiva. Se planteó como objetivo elaborar una estrategia, sustentada en un modelo pedagógico, que contribuya a la orientación vocacional de los estudiantes preuniversitarios de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar hacia la carrera de Cultura Física. La población estuvo conformada por 102 estudiantes de décimo grado y 72 profesores. Se emplearon métodos y técnicas científicas como el histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, inductivo-deductivo, sistémico-estructural-funcional, modelación, observación participante y estructurada, análisis de documentos, evaluación por criterio de expertos, encuesta, talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, además de los métodos matemático-estadísticos. Los fundamentos del modelo pedagógico propiciaron resolver la contradicción entre las exigencias del modelo ideal explícito en los Programas Integrales de Preparación para el Deportista y las limitaciones de los profesores para desarrollar la orientación vocacional hacia esta Carrera. El modelo y la estrategia fueron sometidos a valoración, mediante criterio de expertos y ciclos de talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, los resultados permitieron confirmar transformaciones positivas en el tratamiento a la orientación vocacional del estudiante preuniversitario hacia la carrera de Cultura Física.

A pesquisa teve como objetivo solucionar insuficiências teóricas e metodológicas relacionadas à orientação vocacional para uma carreira na Cultura Física, no processo formativo do aluno pré-universitário da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva Escolar, uma vez que o modelo de bacharelado nesse tipo de centro estabelece a necessidade de alcançar uma sólida preparação integral nos alunos, a partir do ensino e do treinamento esportivo. O objetivo foi elaborar uma estratégia, baseada em um modelo pedagógico, que contribuísse para a orientação vocacional dos alunos pré-universitários da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva para uma carreira na Cultura Física. A população foi composta por 102 alunos da décima série e 72 professores. Foram utilizados métodos e técnicas científicos, tais como histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, indutivo-dedutivo, sistêmico-estrutural-funcional, modelagem, observação participante e estruturada, análise de documentos, avaliação por critérios de especialistas, pesquisa, oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, além de métodos matemático-estatísticos. Os fundamentos do modelo pedagógico ajudaram a resolver a contradição entre as exigências do modelo ideal explícito nos Programas Integrais de Preparação do Atleta e as limitações dos professores no desenvolvimento da orientação vocacional para essa carreira. O modelo e a estratégia foram submetidos à avaliação, por meio de critérios de especialistas e ciclos de oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, e os resultados permitiram confirmar transformações positivas no tratamento da orientação vocacional do aluno pré-universitário para a carreira da Cultura Física.

The research was aimed at resolving theoretical and methodological insufficiencies, related to the vocational orientation towards the Physical Culture career, in the training process of the pre-university student of the School Sports Initiation School, since the high school model in this type of centers establishes the need to achieve a solid comprehensive preparation in students, from teaching and sports training. The objective was to develop a strategy, supported by a pedagogical model, that contributes to the vocational orientation of pre-university students from the School of School Sports Initiation Schools towards the Physical Culture career. The population was made up of 102 tenth grade students and 72 teachers. Scientific methods and techniques were used such as historical-logical, analytical-synthetic, inductive-deductive, systemic-structural-functional, modeling, participant and structured observation, document analysis, evaluation by expert criteria, survey, critical opinion workshops and collective construction, in addition to mathematical-statistical methods. The foundations of the pedagogical model helped resolve the contradiction between the demands of the ideal model explicit in the Comprehensive Preparation Programs for Athletes and the limitations of teachers to develop vocational orientation towards this Career. The model and strategy were subjected to evaluation, through expert criteria and cycles of critical opinion and collective construction workshops, the results allowed confirming positive transformations in the treatment of the vocational orientation of the pre-university student towards the Physical Culture career.

La táctica como fundamento esencial en el proceso de preparación del futbolista

El fútbol es un deporte de oposición, cooperación, donde se interrelacionan las estructuras y las funciones específicas que lo rigen, de carácter eminentemente táctico y de ahí la necesidad que tienen los jugadores de relacionarse para organizarse colectivamente con eficacia en las situaciones ofensivas, defensivas, y las transiciones de ambas acciones, las cuales van a surgir el resto de capacidades técnicas, físicas, de teóricas y psicológicas según las necesidades de la idea de juego. Esta investigación, enmarcada en el proceso de preparación táctica de la selección provincial de fútbol de mayores de Pinar del Río, tuvo objetivo determinar el estado en que se encuentra la preparación táctica de los jugadores según el modelo de juego planificado para enfrentar el torneo nacional y definir la metodología de entrenamiento sustentada en los sistemas modernos de preparación fundamentado en el componente táctico como dimensión rectora en el proceso. Con la utilización de métodos teóricos, empíricos, y de nivel estadístico, se guía todo el proceso de la investigación a través de observaciones a entrenamientos, entrevistas y mediciones del comportamiento táctico en partidos oficiales, con lo cual se pudo corroborar en los resultados alcanzados una serie de insuficiencias y limitaciones tácticas en las dimensiones e indicadores valorados que denota que problemas en la preparación para la competencia.

O futebol é um esporte de oposição, cooperação, onde as estruturas e funções específicas que o regem estão inter-relacionadas, de natureza eminentemente tática e daí a necessidade de os jogadores se relacionarem entre si para se organizarem coletivamente de forma eficaz em situações ofensivas e defensivas, e as transições de ambas as ações, que darão origem ao resto das capacidades técnicas, físicas, teóricas e psicológicas de acordo com as necessidades da ideia de jogo. Esta pesquisa, enquadrada no processo de preparação tática da equipe de futebol sênior provincial de Pinar del Río, teve como objetivo determinar o estado da preparação tática dos jogadores de acordo com o modelo de jogo planejado para enfrentar o torneio nacional e definir a metodologia de treinamento com base nos modernos sistemas de preparação baseados no componente tático como uma dimensão orientadora no processo. Com a utilização de métodos teóricos, empíricos e estatísticos, todo o processo da pesquisa foi orientado por meio de observações em sessões de treinamento, entrevistas e medições do comportamento tático em jogos oficiais, com os quais foi possível corroborar nos resultados alcançados uma série de insuficiências e limitações táticas nas dimensões e indicadores avaliados que denotam problemas na preparação para a competição.

Soccer is a sport of opposition and cooperation, where the specific structures and functions that govern it are interrelated, of an eminently tactical nature and hence the need for players to relate to organize themselves collectively effectively in offensive, defensive, and the transitions of both actions, from which the rest of the technical, physical, theoretical and psychological capacities will emerge according to the needs of the game idea. This research, framed in the tactical preparation process of the provincial senior soccer team of Pinar del Río, had the objective of determining the state of the tactical preparation of the players according to the game model planned to face the national tournament and define the training methodology supported by modern preparation systems based on the tactical component as a guiding dimension in the process. With the use of theoretical, empirical, and statistical methods, the entire research process is guided through observations of training, interviews, and measurements of tactical behavior in official matches, with which it was possible to corroborate in the results achieved a series of insufficiencies and tactical limitations in the valued dimensions and indicators that denote problems in preparation for the competition.

Efficacy of new active viscosupplements on the behavior of an experimental model of osteoarthritis. / Eficacia de nuevos viscosuplementos activos en el comportamiento de un modelo experimental de osteoartritis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate with an animal model of osteoarthritis (New Zealand rabbits) the effectiveness of treatment with active viscosupplements (hyaluronic acid loaded with nanoparticles (NPs) that encapsulate anti-inflammatory compounds or drugs. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Experimental study composed of 5 groups of rabbits in which section of the anterior cruciate ligament and resection of the internal meniscus were performed to trigger degenerative changes and use it as a model of osteoarthritis. The groups were divided into osteoarthrosis without treatment (I), treatment with commercial hyaluronic acid (HA) (II), treatment with HA with empty nanoparticles (III), treatment with HA with nanoparticles encapsulating dexamethasone (IV) and treatment with HA with nanoparticles that encapsulate curcumin (V). In groups II to V, the infiltration of the corresponding compound was carried out spaced one week apart. Macroscopic histological analysis was performed using a scale based on the Outerbridge classification for osteoarthritis. RESULTS: We observed that this osteoarthritis model is reproducible and degenerative changes similar to those found in humans are observed. The groups that were infiltrated with hyaluronic acid with curcumin-loaded nanoparticles (V), followed by the dexamethasone group (IV) presented macroscopically less fibrillation, exposure of subchondral bone and sclerosis (better score on the scale) than the control groups (I) (osteoarthritis without treatment), group (II) treated with commercial hyaluronic acid and hyaluronic acid with nanoparticles without drug (III). CONCLUSIONS: The use of active viscosupplements could have an additional effect to conventional hyaluronic acid treatment due to its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effect. The most promising group was hyaluronic acid with nanoparticles that encapsulate curcumin and the second group was the one that encapsulates dexamethasone.