Impact of deforestation and climate on spatio-temporal spread of dengue fever in Mexico.

Dengue prevalence results from the interaction of multiple socio-environmental variables which influence its spread. This study investigates the impact of forest loss, precipitation, and temperature on dengue incidence in Mexico from 2010 to 2020 using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model. Three temporal structures-AR1, RW1, and RW2-were compared, with RW2 showing superior performance. Findings indicate that a 1 % loss of municipal forest cover correlates with a 16.9 % increase in dengue risk. Temperature also significantly affects the vectors' ability to initiate and maintain outbreaks, highlighting the significant role of environmental factors. The research emphasizes the importance of multilevel modeling, finer temporal data resolution, and understanding deforestation causes to enhance the predictability and effectiveness of public health interventions. As dengue continues affecting global populations, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, this study contributes insights, advocating for an integrated approach to health and environmental policy to mitigate the impact of vector-borne diseases.

Two decades of clear-cutting threats in the Brazilian Amazonian protected areas around the Jirau, Santo Antônio, and Belo Monte large dams.

Deforestation rates in the Amazon have markedly increased in the last few years, affecting non-protected and protected areas (PAs). Brazil is a hotspot of Protected Area Downgrading, Downsizing, and Degazettement (PADDD) events, with most events associated with infrastructure projects. Despite the threats dams impose on PAs, there is a knowledge gap in assessing deforestation in PAs around large dams in the Amazon. This study investigates how deforestation affects Biodiversity Protection Areas (BioPAs) and Indigenous Lands around the Jirau and Santo Antônio (JSA) dams (Madeira River, Rondônia) and Belo Monte dam (Xingu River, Pará) in the Brazilian Amazon. We compared clear-cutting between PAs and control areas and the annual rates of forest change between pre-dam and post-dam periods. We discussed deforestation-related factors (e.g., PADDD events and the presence of management plans or councils). Our results show an increase in deforestation after the operation of the dams when environmental control from licensing agencies decreases and other political and economic factors are in practice. Indigenous Lands experienced a significant increase in deforestation around the Belo Monte dam, which is associated with the demarcation process and land conflicts. Surrounding the JSA dams, sustainable use BioPAs showed high deforestation rates, and 27 PADDD events were reported, four directly related to dams. In addition to dams, deforestation was associated with the crisis of Brazilian democracy and the weakening of environmental policies. In conclusion, the weak environmental control from environmental licensing agencies during dam operation and PADDD events have contributed to increased deforestation rates and additional stresses in the Amazon.

Local stakeholder perceptions of forest degradation: Keys to sustainable tropical forest management.

Land use policies and planning in Latin America have been partially successful in halting deforestation yet have not stopped forest degradation. Here, we study the different stakeholders' perspectives of the drivers of forest degradation. We use Colombia as a case study for understanding synergies and trade-offs of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and analyzed what the most important causes are, to whom it matters, and their regional contribution. We identified a common perception, but miscommunication and misunderstandings occur between local- and national-level actors in terms of their views on responsibilities and rates of change. The results are a call for action. Cross-scale governance is necessary to improve the design and implementation of policies for forest management at the subnational and local levels and to ensure that we move toward sustainable development without worsening existing inequalities. It is essential that countries provide the enabling conditions to develop a coherent governing framework.

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests.

Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin-wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. We show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high-altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long-lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet-dry transition season and northward to savanna-forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the "Arc of Deforestation." Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness.

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures-ways of generating matching pairs at different scales-in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.

Efectos de la Autocorrelación Espacial y el Diseño del Muestreo sobre las Estimaciones de la Efectividad de Áreas Protegidas Resumen La estimación de la efectividad de las áreas protegidas (AP) para reducir la deforestación es útil al momento de respaldar las decisiones que eligen entre invertir en un mejor manejo de las áreas ya protegidas o crear áreas nuevas. El emparejamiento estadístico es la herramienta utilizada con mayor frecuencia para evaluar esta efectividad, pero casi siempre se ignora la autocorrelación especial y las diferencias regionales en la efectividad de la protección. Con Colombia como caso de estudio, empleamos un emparejamiento estadístico para controlar el efecto de factores relacionados con la ubicación la ubicación de los parques y he incluimos el efecto de la autocorrelación especial para determinar la significancia estadística. Comparamos el desempeño de los diferentes procedimientos de emparejamiento - las maneras de generar pares a diferentes escalas - en la estimación de la efectividad de las AP. Las diferencias en los procedimientos de emparejamiento afectaron la similitud de la covarianza entre los pares emparejados (balance) y la estimación de la efectividad de las AP en la reducción de la deforestación. El emparejamiento independiente produjo el mayor balance. En promedio, el 95% de las variables en cada región estuvo balanceado con el emparejamiento independiente, mientras que el 24% de las variables estuvo balanceado cuando se usó el método con el peor desempeño. Las mejores estimaciones sugieren que la deforestación media dentro de las áreas protegidas en Colombia era 40% menor que en los sitios emparejados emparejados. La protección redujo significativamente la deforestación, aunque la efectividad de las AP difirió entre las regiones. Las AP en la región Caribe fueron las más efectivas, mientras que aquellas en la Orinoquía y el Pacífico fueron las menos efectivas. Nuestros resultados demuestran que se necesita considerar la autocorrelación espacial y usar el emparejamiento independiente para cada subconjunto de datos para inferir la efectividad de la protección en la reducción de la deforestación. Si no se considera la autocorrelación espacial, se pueden distorsionar los estimativos de la efectividad de la protección, incrementando los errores de tipo I y II e inflando el tamaño del efecto. Nuestro método permitió obtener mejores estimaciones de la efectividad de la protección en todas las escalas y bajo diferentes condiciones y puede aplicarse a otras regiones para evaluar de manera efectiva el desempeño de las AP.

Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation.

The interactions between climate and land-use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range-restricted species, and high-beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001-2014. For the analyses we created annual land-cover/land-use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km2 , and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive-forest gain, negative-forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000-1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid-elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural-human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real-time land-use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.

Payments for ecosystem services in Mexico reduce forest fragmentation.

Forest fragmentation can lead to habitat reduction, edge increase, and exposure to disturbances. A key emerging policy to protect forests is payments for ecosystem services (PES), which offers compensation to landowners for environmental stewardship. Mexico was one of the first countries to implement a broad-scale PES program, enrolling over 2.3 Mha by 2010. However, Mexico's PES did not completely eliminate deforestation in enrolled parcels and could have increased incentives to hide deforestation in ways that increased fragmentation. We studied whether Mexican forests enrolled in the PES program had less forest fragmentation than those not enrolled, and whether the PES effects varied among forest types, among socioeconomic zones, or compared to the protected areas system. We analyzed forest cover maps from 2000 to 2012 to calculate forest fragmentation. We summarized fragmentation for different forest types and in four socioeconomic zones. We then used matching analysis to investigate the possible causal impacts of the PES on forests across Mexico and compared the effects of the PES program with that of protected areas. We found that the area covered by forest in Mexico decreased by 3.4% from 2000 to 2012, but there was 9.3% less forest core area. Change in forest cover was highest in the southern part of Mexico, and high-stature evergreen tropical forest lost the most core areas (-17%), while oak forest lost the least (-2%). Our matching analysis found that the PES program reduced both forest cover loss and forest fragmentation. Low-PES areas increased twice as much of the number of forest patches, forest edge, forest islets, and largest area of forest lost compared to high-PES areas. Compared to the protected areas system in Mexico, high-PES areas performed similarly in preventing fragmentation, but not as well as biosphere reserve core zones. We conclude that the PES was successful in slowing forest fragmentation at the regional and country level. However, the program could be improved by targeting areas where forest changes are more frequent, especially in southern Mexico. Fragmentation analyses should be implemented in other areas to monitor the outcomes of protection programs such as REDD+ and PES.

Types and rates of forest disturbance in Brazilian Legal Amazon, 2000-2013.

Deforestation rates in primary humid tropical forests of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) have declined significantly since the early 2000s. Brazil's national forest monitoring system provides extensive information for the BLA but lacks independent validation and systematic coverage outside of primary forests. We use a sample-based approach to consistently quantify 2000-2013 tree cover loss in all forest types of the region and characterize the types of forest disturbance. Our results provide unbiased forest loss area estimates, which confirm the reduction of primary forest clearing (deforestation) documented by official maps. By the end of the study period, nonprimary forest clearing, together with primary forest degradation within the BLA, became comparable in area to deforestation, accounting for an estimated 53% of gross tree cover loss area and 26 to 35% of gross aboveground carbon loss. The main type of tree cover loss in all forest types was agroindustrial clearing for pasture (63% of total loss area), followed by small-scale forest clearing (12%) and agroindustrial clearing for cropland (9%), with natural woodlands being directly converted into croplands more often than primary forests. Fire accounted for 9% of the 2000-2013 primary forest disturbance area, with peak disturbances corresponding to droughts in 2005, 2007, and 2010. The rate of selective logging exploitation remained constant throughout the study period, contributing to forest fire vulnerability and degradation pressures. As the forest land use transition advances within the BLA, comprehensive tracking of forest transitions beyond primary forest loss is required to achieve accurate carbon accounting and other monitoring objectives.

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia.

Hunting, pet trade, and forest size effects on population viability of a critically endangered Neotropical primate, Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826).

The yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos) is one of the seven Brazilian primates that are currently threatened with extinction. Although the species is known to be threatened by habitat loss, hunting, and illegal pet trade, few data exist on how these threats influence its long-term population persistence. We conducted population viability analyses (PVAs) to estimate minimum viable populations of S. xanthosternos under 10 threat scenarios (i.e., varying hunting pressure and varying number of infants captured for the pet trade) for five forest fragments with different estimated carrying capacities (K). We also estimated the minimum forest fragment size required to sustain viable populations living under the same 10 threat scenarios, based on critical numbers of K obtained in sensitivity tests, below which the population would be unviable. Our PVAs suggests that hunting has a higher impact on population viability in comparison to threats from the pet trade. Annual losses of adult and young females from hunting had the most detrimental effect on population persistence under all forest fragment sizes. Such hunting pressure is not sustainable for populations living in areas ≤3,460 ha, since these areas may not support populations of ≥84 individuals. The seven largest of the 13 protected areas currently harboring capuchins should be effective at maintaining viable populations in the long term even under the greatest threat scenarios we modeled. Other large forest patches, mainly in the western part of the species distribution, are recommended as priority areas for protection to increase the chances of capuchins' survival for the long term. In addition, forest fragments of ≤782.8 ha cannot maintain viable populations, even when there are no threats from hunting or from captures for the pet trade. Increased law enforcement is necessary to prevent the hunting and capture of capuchins, especially within larger forest fragments. Am. J. Primatol. 78:950-960, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.

Season-specific and guild-specific effects of anthropogenic landscape modification on metacommunity structure of tropical bats.

Fragmentation per se due to human land conversion is a landscape-scale phenomenon. Accordingly, assessment of distributional patterns across a suite of potentially connected communities (i.e. metacommunity structure) is an appropriate approach for understanding the effects of landscape modification and complements the plethora of fragmentation studies that have focused on local community structure. To date, metacommunity structure within human-modified landscapes has been assessed with regard to nestedness along species richness gradients. This is problematic because there is little support that species richness gradients are associated with the factors moulding species distributions. More importantly, many alternative patterns are possible, and different patterns may manifest during different seasons and for different guilds because of variation in resource availability and resource requirements of taxa. We determined the best-fit metacommunity structure of a phyllostomid bat assemblage, frugivore ensemble, and gleaning animalivore ensemble within a human-modified landscape in the Caribbean lowlands of Costa Rica during the dry and wet seasons to elucidate important structuring mechanisms. Furthermore, we identified the landscape characteristics associated with the latent gradient underlying metacommunity structure. We discriminated among multiple metacommunity structures by assessing coherence, range turnover, and boundary clumping of an ordinated site-by-species matrix. We identified the landscape characteristics associated with the latent gradient underlying metacommunity structure via hierarchical partitioning. Metacommunity structure was never nested nor structured along a richness gradient. The phyllostomid assemblage and frugivore ensemble exhibited Gleasonian structure (range turnover along a common gradient) during the dry season and Clementsian structure (range turnover and shared boundaries along a common gradient) during the wet season. Distance between forest patches and forest edge density structured the phyllostomid metacommunity during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Proportion of pasture and forest patch density structured the frugivore metacommunity during the dry season. Gleaning animalivores exhibited chequerboard structure (mutually exclusive species pairs) during the dry season and random structure during the wet season. Metacommunity structure was likely mediated by differential resource use or interspecific relationships. Furthermore, the interaction between landscape characteristics and seasonal variation in resources resulted in season-specific and guild-specific distributional patterns.

Setting practical conservation priorities for birds in the Western Andes of Colombia.

We aspired to set conservation priorities in ways that lead to direct conservation actions. Very large-scale strategic mapping leads to familiar conservation priorities exemplified by biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, tactical conservation actions unfold on much smaller geographical extents and they need to reflect the habitat loss and fragmentation that have sharply restricted where species now live. Our aspirations for direct, practical actions were demanding. First, we identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities. In doing this, we recognized the limitations of incomplete information. We started such a process in Colombia and used the results presented here to implement reforestation of degraded land to prevent the isolation of a large area of cloud forest. We used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would conserve the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia. By at risk species, we mean those that are endemic and have small ranges. The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species-100 in total-but the lowest densities of national parks. We then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18-100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, we made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.