Trajectories in long-term condition accumulation and mortality in older adults: a group-based trajectory modelling approach using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: To classify older adults into clusters based on accumulating long-term conditions (LTC) as trajectories, characterise clusters and quantify their associations with all-cause mortality. DESIGN: We conducted a longitudinal study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over 9 years (n=15 091 aged 50 years and older). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to classify people into clusters based on accumulating LTC over time. Derived clusters were used to quantify the associations between trajectory memberships, sociodemographic characteristics and all-cause mortality by conducting regression models. RESULTS: Five distinct clusters of accumulating LTC trajectories were identified and characterised as: 'no LTC' (18.57%), 'single LTC' (31.21%), 'evolving multimorbidity' (25.82%), 'moderate multimorbidity' (17.12%) and 'high multimorbidity' (7.27%). Increasing age was consistently associated with a larger number of LTCs. Ethnic minorities (adjusted OR=2.04; 95% CI 1.40 to 3.00) were associated with the 'high multimorbidity' cluster. Higher education and paid employment were associated with a lower likelihood of progression over time towards an increased number of LTCs. All the clusters had higher all-cause mortality than the 'no LTC' cluster. CONCLUSIONS: The development of multimorbidity in the number of conditions over time follows distinct trajectories. These are determined by non-modifiable (age, ethnicity) and modifiable factors (education and employment). Stratifying risk through clustering will enable practitioners to identify older adults with a higher likelihood of worsening LTC over time to tailor effective interventions to prevent mortality.

Depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older people in China and associations with chronic diseases.

Introduction: It remains unclear whether depressive symptoms are associated with increased all-cause mortality and to what extent depressive symptoms are associated with chronic disease and all-cause mortality. The study aims to explore the relationship between depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality, and how depressive symptoms may, in turn, affect all-cause mortality among Chinese middle-aged and older people through chronic diseases. Methods: Data were collected from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). This cohort study involved 13,855 individuals from Wave 1 (2011) to Wave 6 (2020) of the CHARLS, which is a nationally representative survey that collects information from Chinese residents ages 45 and older to explore intrinsic mechanisms between depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality. The Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10) was validated through the CHARLS. Covariates included socioeconomic variables, living habits, and self-reported history of chronic diseases. Kaplan-Meier curves depicted mortality rates by depressive symptom levels, with Cox proportional hazards regression models estimating the hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality. Results: Out of the total 13,855 participants included, the median (Q1, Q3) age was 58.00 (51.00, 63.00) years. Adjusted for all covariates, middle-aged and older adults with depressive symptoms had a higher all-cause mortality rate (HR = 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.33]). An increased rate was observed for 55-64 years old (HR = 1.23 [95% CI, 1.03-1.47]) and more than 65 years old (HR = 1.32 [95% CI, 1.18-1.49]), agricultural Hukou (HR = 1.44, [95% CI, 1.30-1.59]), and nonagricultural workload (HR = 1.81 [95% CI, 1.61-2.03]). Depressive symptoms increased the risks of all-cause mortality among patients with hypertension (HR = 1.19 [95% CI, 1.00-1.40]), diabetes (HR = 1.41[95% CI, 1.02-1.95]), and arthritis (HR = 1.29 [95% CI, 1.09-1.51]). Conclusion: Depressive symptoms raise all-cause mortality risk, particularly in those aged 55 and above, rural household registration (agricultural Hukou), nonagricultural workers, and middle-aged and older people with hypertension, diabetes, and arthritis. Our findings through the longitudinal data collected in this study offer valuable insights for interventions targeting depression, such as early detection, integrated chronic disease care management, and healthy lifestyles; and community support for depressive symptoms may help to reduce mortality in middle-aged and older people.

Impacts of COVID-19 on clinical indicators and mortality in patients with chronic conditions in Catalonia, Spain: A retrospective population-based cohort study.

Background: The reallocation of health care services during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted the continuity of primary care. This study examines the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical indicators within the Catalan population, emphasising individuals with chronic conditions. It provides insights into mortality and transfer rates considering intersectional perspectives. Methods: We designed a retrospective, observational population-based cohort study based on routinely collected data from January 2015 to June 2021 for all individuals available in the Information System for Research in Primary Care (Sistema d'Informació per al Desenvolupament de la Investigació en Atenció Primària (SIDIAP)), the largest public primary care database in Catalonia, Spain. We included 6 301 095 individuals, constituting 81.6% of Catalonia's population in 2020. To perform a repeated measurements analysis of the indicators, we focussed on individuals who had one or more indicators in both the pre-pandemic (January 2015 to March 2020) and pandemic periods (March 2020 to June 2021), and those diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), high blood pressure, and heart failure. We selected key clinical indicators for analysis, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), cholesterol (total, high, and low-density lipoprotein), triglycerides, glycosylated haemoglobin, the Barthel index, and cardiovascular risk (Registre Gironí del cor (REGICOR) index). Results: Mortality and transfer rates increased during the pandemic, contributing to a decline in the active population in the public health system. We also observed a reduction in pandemic period prevalence of patients with chronic conditions: -26.7% for heart failure, -15.1% for high blood pressure, and -14.6% for T2D. In both pre-pandemic and pandemic periods, 1 632 013 subjects had at least one clinical indicator record. Clinical indicators worsened in patients diagnosed with chronic conditions during the pandemic. Most indicators worsened, with differences between men and women (+9.4% vs +3.7% for the REGICOR index and -14.1% vs -16.6% for the Barthel index in men and in women, respectively), and to a similar extent (or greater in some cases) in individuals without these conditions. Conclusions: We used longitudinal data to assess the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on population health while considering a wide range of clinical indicators and socioeconomic determinants. Our analysis shows a deterioration in clinical indicators during the pandemic, particularly in cardiometabolic factors, underscoring the importance of continuous primary care for individuals with chronic conditions.

Demographic and geographical trends in chronic lower respiratory diseases mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2020.

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups.During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades.

Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province.

Objectives: The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Methods: This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities. Results: The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31). Conclusion: The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

Inequalities in Disability-Free and Disabling Multimorbid Life Expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States (US). We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education. METHODS: Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of 2 or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated. DISCUSSION: Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

[The gender paradox in health-impaired lifetime-end of a myth?] / Das Geschlechterparadoxon in der gesundheitlich beeinträchtigten Lebenszeit ­ Ende eines Mythos?

BACKGROUND: Women live longer than men, but they spend more life years with health-impairment. This article examines the extent to which this gender paradox can be explained by two factors: the "mortality effect," which results from the higher life expectancy of women, and "differential item functioning" (DIF), which refers to gender differences in reporting behavior. METHODS: Impaired life expectancy at age 50 is calculated for the health indicators general health, limitations, and chronic morbidity using the Sullivan method. Data on health prevalence are obtained from the 2012 survey "Gesundheit in Deutschland aktuell" (GEDA), data on mortality is taken from the Human Mortality Database. The gender difference in impaired life expectancy is decomposed into the mortality effect and the health effect. The latter is finally adjusted for DIF effects on the basis of vignettes from the 2004 SHARE survey. RESULTS: The gender paradox can be resolved not only partially but completely for all three health indicators considered by the mortality effect and DIF. After taking these two factors into account, the gender difference in impaired life expectancy reverses from higher values for women to higher values for men. DISCUSSION: The causes of the gender paradox are highly complex and the differences between women and men in total and impaired life expectancy are not necessarily going into contradictory directions. The extent of women's higher impaired life expectancy depends decisively on the underlying health indicator and is largely explained by the mortality effect.

Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of chronic respiratory diseases mortality among adults: evidence from a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the relationships between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and risk of mortality due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) overall, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer. METHODS: A total of 96,607 participants aged 55 years and over were included from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer trial. Dietary intake was measured using food frequency questionnaire. Cox regression was fitted to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality and mortality due to CRDs overall, COPD and lung cancer associated with UPF intake. Competing risk regression was used to account for deaths from other causes and censoring. RESULTS: During the follow-up of 1,379,655.5 person-years (median 16.8 years), 28,700 all-cause, 4092 CRDs, 2015 lung cancer and 1,536 COPD mortality occurred. A higher intake of UPF increased the risk of mortality from CRDs overall by 10% (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01, 1.22) and COPD by 26% (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.06, 1.49) but not associated with lung cancer mortality risk (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.84, 1.12). However, the risk of lung cancer increased by 16% (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.34) in the highest UPF intake after multiple imputation. Dose-response relationships existed for CRDs and COPD mortality but not lung cancer. CONCLUSION: UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of CRD mortality. The association between UPF consumption and lung cancer mortality is inconclusive and only significant when multiple imputation was applied.

The Impact of Multimorbidity on All-Cause Mortality: A Longitudinal Study of 87,151 Thai Adults.

Objectives: To investigate associations between multimorbidity, socio-demographic and health behaviour factors, and their interactions (multimorbidity and these factors) with all-cause mortality among Thai adults. Methods: Associations between multimorbidity (coexistence of two + chronic diseases) and mortality between 2005 and 2019 were investigated among Thai Cohort Study (TCS) participants (n = 87,151). Kaplan-Meier survival curves estimated and compared survival times. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models examined associations between risk factors, and interactions between multimorbidity, these factors, and survival. Results: 1,958 cohort members died between 2005 and 2019. The risk of death was 43% higher for multimorbid people. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, multimorbidity/number of chronic conditions, age, long sleep duration, smoking and drinking were all independent factors that increased mortality risk. Women, urbanizers, university education, over 20,000-baht personal monthly income and soybean products consumption lowered risk. The interactions between multimorbidity and these variables (except for female, urbanizers and soybeans intake) also had significant (p < 0.05) impact on all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The results emphasise the importance of healthy lifestyle and reduced intake of alcohol and tobacco, in reducing premature mortality, especially when suffering from multimorbidity.

Patterns of adolescent perceived social support and inflammation in adulthood within major racial groups: Findings from a longitudinal, nationally representative sample.

Inflammation, the body's protective response to injury and infection, plays a critical role in physical and mental health outcomes. Elevated chronic inflammation is implicated as a predictor of disease and all-cause mortality and is linked with several psychological disorders. Given that social support is associated with lower rates of mortality and psychopathology, the links between inflammation and social support are well-studied. However, there are many significant gaps related to both the specificity and generalizability of extant findings. There is a paucity of research on the association between social support and inflammation within different racial groups. Additionally, more research is warranted to understand whether social support from different sources uniquely contributes to inflammation, above and beyond other sources of support. Thus, the current study examined whether perceived emotional social support during adolescence predicted inflammation during adulthood within several racial groups. Participants (n = 3,390) were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), identified as either Asian, Black, Latinx, White, or Multiracial, and had complete data on study variables. Consistent with our hypotheses and previous research, greater perceived support during adolescence was associated with lower inflammation during adulthood, but only for White participants. Contrastingly, greater perceived support during adolescence was associated with higher inflammation during adulthood for individuals who identified as Asian, Latinx, Black, or Multiracial. Furthermore, patterns of social support and inflammation within each racial group varied by relationship type. These results highlight the importance of studying relationship processes and health outcomes within racial groups to understand their unique, lived experiences.

Aplicação do Protocolo SOS (Score de Obesidade do Servidor) para priorização de pacientes graves em fila de espera da Cirurgia Bariátrica no Hospital do Servidor Público Municipal / Application of the SOS Protocol (Server Obesity Score) to prioritize critically ill patients on the waiting list for Bariatric Surgery at the Hospital do Servidor Público Municipal

A obesidade é uma doença crônica de magnitude global, e o seu controle é um desafio, sendo a cirurgia bariátrica o seu tratamento mais eficaz. Entretanto, a demanda superou a capacidade cirúrgica e filas de espera que ultrapassam cinco anos são visíveis e ocorrem em diversas nações. Durante a espera torna-se evidente a presença de pacientes com comorbidades graves, sujeitos a um agravamento destas e com maior chance de óbito. No Brasil, utiliza-se o critério cronológico para seleção dos pacientes aptos para realização de cirurgia bariátrica, carecendo de protocolos consolidados para avaliar a prioridade entre os pacientes. Objetivo: Aplicar o protocolo do Score de Obesidade do Servidor (SOS) e avaliar sua eficiência para priorização de pacientes na lista de espera para Cirurgia Bariátrica e Metabólica do Hospital do Servidor Público Municipal de São Paulo, mantendo a convocação dos pacientes em ordem cronológica em nossa lista. Materiais e Métodos: Estudo experimental prospectivo com aplicação do protocolo entre julho de 2022 e julho de 2023 nos 475 pacientes aguardando em fila de espera e formação de 3 grupos de preparo para cirurgia bariátrica. Os grupos de preparo foram compostos por cerca de 50% de pacientes da ordem cronológica e 50% de pacientes pontuados como prioridade pelo protocolo. Resultados: Foram convocados 137 pacientes, dos quais 75 foram convocados seguindo a ordem cronológica e 62 pacientes foram priorizados, sendo 35 com prioridade vermelha e 27 com prioridade amarela. Foram chamados todos os pacientes classificados como vermelhos em lista de espera. Conclusão: A aplicação do protocolo SOS para a priorização de pacientes com critérios de gravidade na lista de espera para Cirurgia Bariátrica e Metabólica é uma estratégia eficaz e a combinação dessa abordagem com a convocação em ordem cronológica demonstrou ser uma solução viável para gestão dessa lista de espera. Palavras-chave: Obesidade. Cirurgia bariátrica. Priorização. Listas de espera. Manejo da Obesidade.

Teoría del Manejo del Síntoma: análisis para investigación en multimorbilidad en ambientes comunitarios / Symptom Management Theory: Analysis for Multimorbidity Research in Community Settings

Objetivo: Analizar críticamente la teoría de rango medio Symptom Management Theory y evaluar su utilidad en la investigación sobre multimorbilidad en ambientes comunitarios. Metodología: Análisis teórico según estrategia de subestructuración de Dulock, consistente en 4 pasos: identificación de constructos y conceptos; descripción de las relaciones; operacionalización de los conceptos con indicadores empíricos y representación pictórica y jerarquizada del modelo. Resultados: El modelo cuenta con una clara estructura jerárquica, vinculando el sistema teórico y operativo. Esta estructura teórica es coherente, sencilla y tiene un respaldo suficiente para ser aplicada en el estudio de la gestión de síntomas en usuarios portadores de multimorbilidad en ambientes comunitarios. Conclusiones: La teoría de rango medio Manejo del Síntoma es útil para el estudio de la multimorbilidad en contextos comunitarios.(AU)

Objective: To critically analyze the middle-range theory Symptom Management Theory and evaluate their utility in research on multimorbidity in community settings. Methodology: Theoretical analysis using Dulock's substruction strategy, consisting of four steps: identification of constructs and concepts, description of relationships, operationalization of concepts with empirical indicators, and hierarchical pictorial representation of the model. Results: The model's hierarchical structure is clear, effectively linking the theoretical and operational systems. This theoretical structure is coherent, straightforward, and sufficiently supported for its application in the study of symptom management in individuals with multimorbidity in community settings. Conclusions: The middle-range theory of Symptom Management is valuable for investigating multimorbidity in community contexts.(AU)

Hormone Therapy for the Primary Prevention of Chronic Conditions in Postmenopausal Persons: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: It is uncertain whether hormone therapy should be used for the primary prevention of chronic conditions such as heart disease, osteoporosis, or some types of cancers. Objective: To update evidence for the US Preventive Services Task Force on the benefits and harms of hormone therapy in reducing risks for chronic conditions. Data Sources: PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and trial registries from January 1, 2016, through October 12, 2021; surveillance through July 2022. Study Selection: English-language randomized clinical trials and prospective cohort studies of fair or good quality. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Dual review of abstracts, full-text articles, and study quality; meta-analyses when at least 3 similar studies were available. Main Outcomes and Measures: Morbidity and mortality related to chronic conditions; health-related quality of life. Results: Twenty trials (N = 39 145) and 3 cohort studies (N = 1 155 410) were included. Participants using estrogen only compared with placebo had significantly lower risks for diabetes over 7.1 years (1050 vs 903 cases; 134 fewer [95% CI, 18-237]) and fractures over 7.2 years (1024 vs 1413 cases; 388 fewer [95% CI, 277-489]) per 10 000 persons. Risks per 10 000 persons were statistically significantly increased for gallbladder disease over 7.1 years (1113 vs 737 cases; 377 more [95% CI, 234-540]), stroke over 7.2 years (318 vs 239 cases; 79 more [95% CI, 15-159]), venous thromboembolism over 7.2 years (258 vs 181 cases; 77 more [95% CI, 19-153]), and urinary incontinence over 1 year (2331 vs 1446 cases; 885 more [95% CI, 659-1135]). Participants using estrogen plus progestin compared with placebo experienced significantly lower risks, per 10 000 persons, for colorectal cancer over 5.6 years (59 vs 93 cases; 34 fewer [95% CI, 9-51]), diabetes over 5.6 years (403 vs 482 cases; 78 fewer [95% CI, 15-133]), and fractures over 5 years (864 vs 1094 cases; 230 fewer [95% CI, 66-372]). Risks, per 10 000 persons, were significantly increased for invasive breast cancer (242 vs 191 cases; 51 more [95% CI, 6-106]), gallbladder disease (723 vs 463 cases; 260 more [95% CI, 169-364]), stroke (187 vs 135 cases; 52 more [95% CI, 12-104]), and venous thromboembolism (246 vs 126 cases; 120 more [95% CI, 68-185]) over 5.6 years; probable dementia (179 vs 91 cases; 88 more [95% CI, 15-212]) over 4.0 years; and urinary incontinence (1707 vs 1145 cases; 562 more [95% CI, 412-726]) over 1 year. Conclusions and Relevance: Use of hormone therapy in postmenopausal persons for the primary prevention of chronic conditions was associated with some benefits but also with an increased risk of harms.

Palliative Prognostic Index as a predictor of mortality among geriatric patients with advanced chronic medical conditions.

INTRODUCTION: This study is to validate Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) as a tool for six months prognostication in geriatric patients with advanced chronic medical conditions and to identify other independent prognostic markers of survival. METHODS: This was a prospective and observational study of 108 geriatric patients conducted at Pusat Jantung Hospital Umum Sarawak (PJHUS) Kota Samarahan and Sarawak General Hospital (SGH). The PPI scores were calculated and determined at the time of admission. Mortality is considered as the primary outcome. Sensitivity and specificity analysis were conducted to test the accuracy of PPI. The ideal cut-off value for PPI and other associated markers were determined based on the highest value of Youden Index. Cox regression analysis and survival analysis were applied to test the association between potential markers within six months. RESULTS: PPI score has a significant association with survival within six months based on univariate and multivariate analyses (p<0.05). Total PPI had a hazard ratio of 1.56 (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI): 1.33,1.57). The study shows PPI reported area under the curve-ROC of 0.945 with p<0.001. PPI score with cut-off value of six reports the highest accuracy in predicting death within six months with sensitivity and specificity of 88.6% and 90.6%, respectively. Total PPI score of >6 with serum albumin level ≤25, the sensitivity and specificity tested were 100.0%. CONCLUSION: PPI has the potential to be a useful and significant predictor of mortality within six months in the geriatric population with an advanced chronic medical condition. This study also re-emphasised the strong prognostic role of other markers such as Palliative Performance Scale, Barthel Index, and serum albumin level. This study has identified that hypoalbuminemia cut-off value of 25g/dL analysed against PPI score of >5 revealed extremely high accuracy of prognostication for mortality.

Association of Patient Characteristics With Postoperative Mortality in Children Undergoing Tonsillectomy in 5 US States.

Importance: The rate of postoperative death in children undergoing tonsillectomy is uncertain. Mortality rates are not separately available for children at increased risk of complications, including young children (aged <3 y) and those with sleep-disordered breathing or complex chronic conditions. Objective: To estimate postoperative mortality following tonsillectomy in US children, both overall and in relation to recognized risk factors for complications. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study based on longitudinal analysis of linked records in state ambulatory surgery, inpatient, and emergency department discharge data sets distributed by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for 5 states covering 2005 to 2017. Participants included 504 262 persons younger than 21 years for whom discharge records were available to link outpatient or inpatient tonsillectomy with at least 90 days of follow-up. Exposures: Tonsillectomy with or without adenoidectomy. Main Outcome and Measures: Postoperative death within 30 days or during a surgical stay lasting more than 30 days. Modified Poisson regression with sample weighting was used to estimate postoperative mortality per 100 000 operations, both overall and in relation to age group, sleep-disordered breathing, and complex chronic conditions. Results: The 504 262 children in the cohort underwent a total of 505 182 tonsillectomies (median [IQR] patient age, 7 [4-12] years; 50.6% females), of which 10.1% were performed in young children, 28.9% in those with sleep-disordered breathing, and 2.8% in those with complex chronic conditions. There were 36 linked postoperative deaths, which occurred a median (IQR) of 4.5 (2-20.5) days after surgical admission, and most of which (19/36 [53%]) occurred after surgical discharge. The unadjusted mortality rate was 7.04 (95% CI, 4.97-9.98) deaths per 100 000 operations. In multivariable models, neither age younger than 3 years nor sleep-disordered breathing was significantly associated with mortality, but children with complex chronic conditions had significantly higher mortality (16 deaths/14 299 operations) than children without these conditions (20 deaths/490 883 operations) (117.22 vs 3.87 deaths per 100 000 operations; adjusted rate difference, 113.55 [95% CI, 51.45-175.64] deaths per 100 000 operations; adjusted rate ratio, 29.39 [95% CI, 13.37-64.62]). Children with complex chronic conditions accounted for 2.8% of tonsillectomies but 44% of postoperative deaths. Most deaths associated with complex chronic conditions occurred in children with neurologic/neuromuscular or congenital/genetic disorders. Conclusions and Relevance: Among children undergoing tonsillectomy, the rate of postoperative death was 7 per 100 000 operations overall and 117 per 100 000 operations among children with complex chronic conditions. These findings may inform decision-making for pediatric tonsillectomy.

Estratégias para enfrentamento da mortalidade precoce por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis / Strategies for coping with early mortality from non-communicable chronic diseases

As Doenças Crônicas Não Transmissíveis (DCNTs) tendem a ser de longa duração e são o resultado de uma combinação de fatores genéticos, fisiológicos, ambientais e comportamentais. Tais agravos matam 41 milhões de pessoas a cada ano, o equivalente a 74% de todas as mortes no mundo, principalmente mortes prematuras, além de acarretar a perda de qualidade de vida, limitações e incapacidades, constituindo a maior carga de morbimortalidade. Sendo assim, esta síntese de evidências traz alguns pontos do Plano de Ações Estratégicas para o Enfrentamento das Doenças Não Transmissíveis no Brasil (2011-2022), que tem o intuito de reduzir a carga de DCNTs e evitar mortes prematuras, além de promover o desenvolvimento e a implementação de políticas públicas efetivas, integradas, sustentáveis e baseadas em evidências para a prevenção e o controle das DCNTs e seus fatores de risco e fortalecer os serviços de saúde voltados às doenças crônicas

Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) tend to be of long duration and are the result of a combination of genetic, physiological, environmental and behavioral factors. Such diseases kill 41 million people each year, equivalent to 74% of all deaths in the world, mainly premature deaths, in addition to causing a loss of quality of life, limitations and disabilities, constituting the highest burden of morbidity and mortality. Therefore, this synthesis of evidence presents some points of the Strategic Action Plan for Combating Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil (2011-2022), which aims to reduce the burden of NCDs and prevent premature deaths, in addition to promoting the development and the implementation of effective, integrated, sustainable and evidence-based public policies for the prevention and control of CNCDs and their risk factors and to strengthen health services aimed at chronic diseases

Links Between Mortality and Socioeconomic Characteristics, Disease Burden, and Biological and Physical Functioning in the Aging Chinese Population.

OBJECTIVES: Determinants of mortality may depend on the time and place where they are examined. China provides an important context in which to study the determinants of mortality at older ages because of its unique social, economic, and epidemiological circumstances. This study uses a nationally representative sample of persons in China to determine how socioeconomic characteristics, early-life conditions, biological and physical functioning, and disease burden predict 4-year mortality after age 60. METHODS: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We employed a series of Cox proportional hazard models based on exact survival time to predict 4-year all-cause mortality between the 2011 baseline interview and the 2015 interview. RESULTS: We found that rural residence, poor physical functioning ability, uncontrolled hypertension, diabetes, cancer, a high level of systemic inflammation, and poor kidney functioning are strong predictors of mortality among older Chinese. DISCUSSION: The results show that the objectively measured indicators of physical functioning and biomarkers are independent and strong predictors of mortality risk after accounting for several additional self-reported health measures, confirming the value of incorporating biological and performance measurements in population health surveys to help understand health changes and aging processes that lead to mortality. This study also highlights the importance of social and historical context in the study of old-age mortality.