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RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar la brecha de mortalidad por violencia interpersonal (VI) en adolescentes y jóvenes en territorios sociales conformados por 17 países de América Latina (AL), según edad y sexo para los años 1990 y 2019, a partir de las estimaciones del Estudio de la carga global de enfermedades, lesiones y factores de riesgo (GBD, por su sigla en inglés) 2019. Métodos. Estudio epidemiológico ecológico de la mortalidad por VI. Los países se distribuyeron en tres estratos según el índice de desarrollo social. Para estimar las brechas se utilizó el modelo de regresión de Poisson, se calcularon los odds ratio y su respectivo intervalo de confianza del 95%. Resultados. La carga global de mortalidad por VI presentó un aumento significativo en los hombres de los estratos 1 y 2, y un descenso en el 3. Entre las mujeres del estrato 2, se observó un descenso significativo. Por grupo de edad, la carga de VI aumentó tanto en hombres como en mujeres a partir de los 20 años. Conclusiones. La VI es todavía un problema de salud pública importante en AL, que afecta sobre todo a los adolescentes y jóvenes de los países con menor desarrollo socioeconómico. Es urgente evaluar las políticas públicas implementadas para conocer las causas que impiden la reducción de las brechas actuales, y aplicar planes que actúen sobre los determinantes sociales de la VI y propongan una transformación positiva con equidad. El informe del GBD puede ser un insumo importante para el diseño, la implementación y el seguimiento de políticas públicas para la prevención de la violencia interpersonal en la Región.
ABSTRACT Objective. To estimate the mortality gap due to interpersonal violence in adolescents and young people in 'social territories' made up of 17 Latin American countries, by age and sex for the years 1990 and 2019, based on estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Study, 2019. Methods. Ecological epidemiological study of mortality due to interpersonal violence. Countries were divided into three strata according to the social development index (SDI). To estimate the gaps, the Poisson regression model was used, and the odds ratio and its respective 95% confidence interval were calculated. Results. The global burden of mortality due to interpersonal violence showed a significant increase in men in strata 1 and 2, and a decrease in stratum 3; a significant decrease was observed in women in stratum 2. By age group, the burden of interpersonal violence increased in both men and women aged 20 years and older. Conclusions. Interpersonal violence continues to be an important public health problem in Latin America, affecting mainly adolescents and young people in countries with lower socioeconomic development. It is urgent to evaluate the public policies that have been implemented in order to determine the causes that prevent the reduction of current gaps, and to implement plans that act on the social determinants of interpersonal violence and that promote a positive transformation with equity. The GBD report can serve as an important tool in the design, implementation, and monitoring of public policies aimed at preventing interpersonal violence in the Region.
RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar a disparidade de mortalidade por violência interpessoal (VI) entre adolescentes e jovens em territórios sociais compostos por 17 países da América Latina (AL), de acordo com a idade e o sexo, para os anos de 1990 e 2019, com base nas estimativas do estudo de Carga Global de Doenças, Lesões e Fatores de Risco (GBD, na sigla em inglês) 2019. Métodos. Estudo epidemiológico ecológico da mortalidade por VI. Os países foram distribuídos em três estratos de acordo com o índice de desenvolvimento social. O modelo de regressão de Poisson foi usado para estimar as disparidades, e calcularam-se as razões de chances com intervalos de confiança de 95%. Resultados. A carga global de mortalidade por VI revelou um aumento significativo entre os homens dos estratos 1 e 2, e uma diminuição nos do estrato 3. Entre as mulheres do estrato 2, foi observada uma diminuição significativa. Por faixa etária, a carga de VI aumentou tanto em homens quanto em mulheres a partir dos 20 anos de idade. Conclusões. A VI continua sendo um problema de saúde pública importante na América Latina que afeta principalmente os adolescentes e jovens dos países com menor desenvolvimento socioeconômico. É urgente avaliar as políticas públicas implementadas para entender as causas que impedem a redução das atuais disparidades e implementar planos que atuem sobre os determinantes sociais da VI e proponham uma transformação positiva com equidade. O relatório do GBD pode ser um importante insumo para a elaboração, implementação e monitoramento de políticas públicas para a prevenção da violência interpessoal na região.
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Objective: To study the distribution of human leptospirosis cases across the different geographic regions in the Philippines in 2015-2017 and to determine the relationship between the frequency of typhoon occurrence and human leptospirosis cases. Methods: Information on the frequency of leptospirosis cases and typhoon occurrence across the different regions in the Philippines from 2015 to 2017 was retrieved from the databases of the Department of Health and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, respectively. Descriptive measures on the prevalent cases and occurrence of typhoons across the different regions were summarized. Linear regression analysis was employed to establish the functional relationship between leptospirosis cases and typhoon occurrence. The distribution of human leptospirosis cases was assessed using the Poisson distribution. Results: The frequency of typhoon occurrence accounted for the significant linear variation in the geographic distribution of human leptospirosis cases in the Philippines (P<0.001). Moreover, the human leptospirosis cases obeyed a Poisson distribution (λ=6.89, P<0.001). Conclusions: The Philippines has frequently experienced severe weather perturbations such as typhoons resulting in flooding and subsequently increasing the risk of transmitting bacterial infections including leptospirosis. Information obtained regarding the determinants and distribution of human leptospirosis will provide better understanding of the disease propagation for subsequent design of optimal disease prevention measures, appropriate resource allocation, effective control strategies, and necessary public health programs.
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Objective: To study the distribution of human leptospirosis cases across the different geographic regions in the Philippines in 2015-2017 and to determine the relationship between the frequency of typhoon occurrence and human leptospirosis cases. Methods: Information on the frequency of leptospirosis cases and typhoon occurrence across the different regions in the Philippines from 2015 to 2017 was retrieved from the databases of the Department of Health and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, respectively. Descriptive measures on the prevalent cases and occurrence of typhoons across the different regions were summarized. Linear regression analysis was employed to establish the functional relationship between leptospirosis cases and typhoon occurrence. The distribution of human leptospirosis cases was assessed using the Poisson distribution. Results: The frequency of typhoon occurrence accounted for the significant linear variation in the geographic distribution of human leptospirosis cases in the Philippines (P<0.001). Moreover, the human leptospirosis cases obeyed a Poisson distribution (λ=6.89, P<0.001). Conclusions: The Philippines has frequently experienced severe weather perturbations such as typhoons resulting in flooding and subsequently increasing the risk of transmitting bacterial infections including leptospirosis. Information obtained regarding the determinants and distribution of human leptospirosis will provide better understanding of the disease propagation for subsequent design of optimal disease prevention measures, appropriate resource allocation, effective control strategies, and necessary public health programs.
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Siméon Denis Poisson (1781-1840) was a famous French mathematician, physicist and founder of statistical theory. He established the Poisson distribution model through the criminal trial cases and solved many random phenomena in natural science and social science. He also introduced birth statistics, Poisson's inference theory, Laplace's theorem and error theory, law of large numbers and judgment probability and other related theories. Poisson promoted the development of probability theory in the 19th century and opened up a new trend of physics from experimental research to theoretical research.
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Resumen OBJETIVO: Analizar el perfil epidemiológico y la tendencia de las muertes maternas tempranas de mujeres residentes en Bogotá durante los trienios 2010-2012 y 2013-2015. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional, retrospectivo, transversal y analítico efectuado con base en la vigilancia epidemiológica de casos centinela. Criterio de inclusión: mujeres residentes en Bogotá, Colombia, fallecidas por causas directas o indirectas. Criterio de exclusión: muertes tardías. Las muertes maternas se identificaron mediante la revisión de la base de nacimientos y defunciones del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística y de los reportes del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se registraron las variables clínicas y sociodemográficas maternas, causas agrupadas y específicas de muerte. Se realizó estadística descriptiva para las variables analizadas y la significación estadística se evaluó con distribución de Poisson. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 225 muertes maternas tempranas y 630,017 nacidos vivos. La mortalidad materna temprana disminuyó de 39 a 32 por cada 100,000 nacidos vivos. La mayor reducción se registró en mujeres de 10 a 19 y en mayores de 40 años. La mortalidad materna por causas indirectas disminuyó y, en menor medida, para los trastornos hipertensivos, hemorragia y embarazo que termina en aborto. No obstante, aumentaron las infecciones relacionadas con el embarazo y los suicidios. CONCLUSIONES: Bogotá se encuentra en un periodo de transición obstétrica. Sobresale la reducción en la mortalidad materna temprana y la caída en las causas indirectas. Debe prestarse atención al ascenso en las muertes como consecuencia de lesiones autoinfligidas.
Abstract OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological profile and trends of maternal deaths of women living in Bogotá during the 2010-2012 and 2013-2015 triennia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective, cross-sectional and descriptive observational study based on epidemiological surveillance of sentinel cases. Women residing in Bogotá who died of direct or indirect causes were included. Late deaths were excluded. Maternal deaths were identified through a review of the birth and death database of the National Administrative Department of Statistics and the reports of the National Health Institute. Clinical and sociodemographic maternal variables grouped, and specific causes of death were recorded. A descriptive statistic was performed for the variables analyzed and statistical significance of trends was evaluated using Poisson distribution. RESULTS: 225 early maternal deaths and 630,017 live births were included. Early maternal mortality decreased from 39 to 32 per 100,000 live births. For the most part, the reduction occurred in women between 10 and 19 years old and in those over 40 years old. Maternal mortality due to indirect causes decreased and to a lesser extent, for hypertensive disorders, hemorrhage and pregnancy that ends in abortion. However, it increased for infections related to pregnancy and suicides. CONCLUSIONS: Bogotá is in a period of obstetric transition. The reduction in early maternal mortality and the fall in indirect causes stand out. Attention should be paid to the rise in deaths as a consequence of self-inflicted injuries.
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Objective To explore medical equipment allocation with considerations on randomly distributed and dynamic injury conditions by analyzing injury conditions transition and medical equipment stochastic service process.Methods A casualty array change model was established by injury conditions evolution analysis,Poisson process and Markov chain.Medical equipment stochastic service processes in medical facilities were probed,and the service rules were constructed.Expert investigation was carried out to acquire conditions transition indexes and to determine the vectors for conditions transition without manual intervention and their changes after treatment,then simulation tools were used to optimize medical equipment allocation.Results The emergency treatment table in some field medical station was considered as the subject,and the optimum allocation was proposed for emergency treatment table with practical data and simulation calculation.Conclusion The emergency treatment table allocation proposed was similar to the actual one in the medical station.Markov-process-based medical equipment allocation responses injury conditions changes and the fluctuation of treatment sequence,which has the result reliable and the method versatile and practical,and lays a foundation for medical equipment allocation and optimization.
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Digital PCR is an emerging analysis technology for absolute quantification after realtime-PCR. Through digital PCR, single DNA molecules are distributed into isolated reactions, and the product with fluorescence signal can be detected and analyzed after amplification. With the advantages of higher sensitivity and accuracy, digital PCR, independent of a standard curve, is developing rapidly and applied widely to the next generation sequencing and detection fields, such as gene mutation, copy number variation, microorganism, and genetically modified food. In this article, we reviewed the quantitative method and research progress of digital PCR technology in the main application fields.
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Objective To understand the value of poisson distribution in monitoring and early warning of hand-foot-mouth disease( HFMD). Methods Alert data based on infectious disease reports from 2009 to 2011 were used to establish a database. Moving average method was employed to set the number of expected cases each week. The probability of outbreak was calculated by poisson's distribution. If the probability was smaller than a standard,the signal of early warning was sent out. Epidemiological investigation was used to verify it. Results Using this method,44 abnormal signals of HFMD were probed,and 33 signals were verified. The positive rate,sensitivity,specificity and Youden 's index were 75. 00%,94. 29%,35. 29% and 29. 58% respectively. Compared to the moving average control chart and the automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases,it was more efficient. Conclusions The poisson distribution with the moving average method can be used as an effective method in early warning system of HFMD.
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Objective To study the space distribution probability model of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,so as to provide basic information for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome prevention and control policy making.Methods Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution were used to fit the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome deaths spatial distribution in Kaijiang county,Dazhou city,Sichuan province between 1979-2010.Results The actual distribution of death cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Kaijiang county was not Poisson distribution (x2 =40.64,P ＜ 0.01),but subjected to the negative binomial distribution(x2 =1.86,P ＞ 0.50).Conclusions The space distribution of death cases of HFRS in Kaijiang county is not random,but has strict regional aggregation,which may be related to the local medical conditions,patient' s lack of knowledge about health care and other factors.
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O câncer de mama, doença crônica com repercussões orgânicas, econômicas e psicossociais, é a principal doença neoplásica do sexo feminino, tanto em países desenvolvidos quanto naqueles em desenvolvimento, e constitui-se em problema de saúdepública de dimensões mundiais. O objetivo deste estudo é descrever a tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama feminina no estado da Bahia de 1980 a 2007. Os dados sobre os óbitos e sobre a população foram obtidos no SIM/Datasus e no IBGE/Datasus, respectivamente. Calcularam-se as taxas de mortalidade por faixa etária, taxas brutas etaxas padronizadas por idade, ajustadas pelo número de óbitos por causa mal definida. Para a análise da tendência temporal, utilizou-se a regressão de Poisson, com avaliação de superdispersão. Os resultados apontam que, em Salvador, a taxa bruta teve um aumento médio anual de 1,13por cento e a taxa padronizada, uma redução de 0,34por cento. A inspeção da curvarevela um incremento de 0,46por cento até 1997 e uma redução de 2,33por cento desse ano em diante. Observou-se uma tendência crescente de 1,39por cento na faixa etária de 20 a 49. Entre as mulheres com idade maior ou igual a 50 anos ocorreu uma redução de 2,73por cento a partir de 1997. No estado da Bahia, as taxas de mortalidade padronizadas variaram de 4,71/100.000 em 1980a 7,92/100.000 em 2007. Observou-se um aumento de 2,70por cento na taxa não padronizada por idade, ajustada pelo número de óbitos por causa mal definida. A taxa padronizada experimentou um aumento médio anual de 1,52por cento. As taxas ajustadas pelo número de óbitos por causa mal definida entre as mulheres abaixo e acima de 50 anos tiveram um incrementode 3,02por cento e de 2,45por cento, respectivamente. Concluiu-se que se verifica um aumento gradativo da mortalidade por câncer de mama feminina na Bahia e uma discreta tendência à redução na cidade de Salvador. Um período maior de observação será necessário para a verificação da manutenção dessas tendências.
Breast cancer, chronic disease with organic, economic and psychosocial impact, is the primary neoplasm in females; both in developed and in developing countries, and it is a public health problem of global dimensions. The objective of this study is to describe the mortality rate trends for this disease in the state of Bahia, Brazil, from 1980 to 2006. Mortality and population data were collected in the Mortality Information System - SIM/DATASUS/Ministry of Health and in IBGE/DATASUS, respectively. Mortality rates by age group, crude rates and standardized rates by age, adjusted for the numbers of deaths due undefinedcause were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to analyze the temporal trends, with evaluation of over dispersion. The results indicate that in Salvador, the crude rate had an average annual increase of 1.13percent and the standardized rate, a reduction of 0.34percent. Theinspection of the curve demonstrates that there was an increase of 0.46percent until 1997 and a reduction of 2.33percent this year onwards. There was an increasing trend of 1.39percent in the age group 20 to 49. Among women aged greater than or equal to 50 years there was a reduction of 2.73percent from 1997. In the state of Bahia, the standardized mortality rates varied from 4.71 per 100,000 in 1980 to 7.92 per 100,000 in 2007. There was an increase of 2.70percent in nonstandardized rate by age, adjusted for the number of deaths due to undefined cause. The standardized rate experienced an average annual increase of 1.52percent. The rates adjusted bythe number of deaths from undefined causes among women below and above 50 years had an increase of 3.02percent and 2.45percent, respectively. We conclude that there is a gradual increase in breast cancer mortality among women in the state of Bahia as a whole and a slight tendency to reduce in the city of Salvador. A longer period of observation will be necessary to verify the maintenance of these trends.
El cáncer de mama, enfermedad crónica con repercusione orgánicas,económicas y psicosociales, principal enfermedad neoclásica de la mujer, tanto en los países desarrollados como en los en desarrollo, constituyéndose problema de salud pública dimensiones mundiales. El objetivo de este estudio es describir la evolución dela tasa de mortalidad de esta enfermedad en el estado de Bahía, Brasil, de 1980 a 2006. Los datos sobre mortalidad y población fueron obtenidos en el SIM/Datasus y en el IBGE/Datasus, respectivamente. Las tasas de mortalidad fueron calculadas por grupos de edad, las tasas brutas y tasas... por causa mal definida. Para el análisis de la tendencia temporal, se utilizó la regressión de Poisson con evaluación de la sobredispersión. Os resultados indican en Salvador, la tasa bruta tuvo un incremento promedio anual 1.13por ciento y la tasa estandarizada, una reducción de 0,34por ciento. La inspección curva demuestra que hubo un aumento del 0,46por ciento hasta 1997 y una reducción de 2,33por ciento de ese año en adelante. Se observó tendencia al alza 1,39por ciento en el grupo de edad de 20 a 49. Entre las mujeres con edad mayor o igual a 50 años hubo una reducción, a partir de 1997, de 2,73por ciento. En el estado de Bahía, tasas standarizadasde mortalidad variaron 4,71/100.000 en 1980 a 7,92/ 100.000 en 2007. Se observó aumento de 2,70por ciento en la tasa no estandarizada por edad, ajustada por n. de muertes por causa mal definida. La tasa estandarizada mostró un incremento medio anual del 1,52´por ciento. Las tasas ajustadas por el número de muertes por causa mal definida entre las mujeres abajo y arriba de 50 años tuvieron un aumento de 3,02por ciento y 2,45por ciento, respectivamente. Se concluye que hay un aumento gradual de la mortalidad por cáncer de mama femenina en la Bahía y una ligera tendencia reducción en la ciudad de Salvador. Un período más largo de observación será necesario para verificar el mantenimiento de estas tendencias.
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Humans , Female , Mortality , Breast Neoplasms/mortality , Poisson Distribution , BrazilABSTRACT
OBJETIVO: Os objetivos deste artigo são dois: I) Desenvolver um modelo que caracterize a distribuição da variável "tempo decorrido desde a última consulta médica" e II) testar empiricamente esse modelo. MÉTODOS: Para desenvolver o modelo teórico, recorrerá a uma demonstração de natureza estatística. Para testar o modelo teórico serão usados os dados da "Encuesta Nacional de Espana" de 2006, referentes ao gênero feminino. RESULTADOS: Os resultados alcançados mostram que a distribuição do tempo decorrido desde a última consulta médica segue uma distribuição de Poisson. Empiricamente, foi validada essa conclusão e adicionalmente verificou-se que algumas condicionantes aumentam a probabilidade de uma mulher espanhola recorrer a consulta médica, nomeadamente, a situação de inatividade, a residência em lugares de menor densidade e idade superior. CONCLUSÃO: O trabalho conclui que o tempo decorrido desde a última consulta médica, seguindo uma distribuição de Poisson, revela implicitamente que a ida a uma consulta é ainda encarada como um fenômeno raro para as mulheres na Espanha. Cruzando esta evidência com os resultados, salienta-se que maior razão de clínicos por população, maior disponibilidade temporal de cada mulher (sobretudo em situações de inatividade laboral) e maior conhecimento pessoal poderão levar a maior uso das consultas médicas, diminuindo, assim, o tempo decorrido desde a última consulta.
OBJECTIVE: This study aims at two objectives: I) to develop a model capable of predicting the statistical distribution of the variable "time elapsed since the last medical visit"; II) to empirically test the theoretical model. METHODS: To develop the theoretical model, the author will use a demonstration that is statistical in nature. In order to test the theoretical distribution, the 2006 Encuesta Nacional de España data regarding females will be used. RESULTS: The results found show that the distribution of the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution. This conclusion was empirically validated, and additionally, a few determinants were found that increase the likelihood that Spanish women will resort to a doctor, namely, inactivity, residence in small places and being older. CONCLUSION: The study concluded that the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution; thus, going to a medical appointment is still seen as a rare phenomenon for Spanish women. By comparing this data with our results, we found that a higher ratio of physicians to population, a higher time availability for each woman (especially in a labor inactivity setting) and strong personal relationships can lead to a higher medical visit rate, thus reducing the time elapsed since the last visit.
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Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , Office Visits/statistics & numerical data , Referral and Consultation/statistics & numerical data , Age Factors , Appointments and Schedules , Educational Status , Poisson Distribution , Socioeconomic Factors , Spain , Time FactorsABSTRACT
Objetivo: avaliar a relação entre aleitamento materno e internações por doenças diarreicas em crianças com menos de um ano de vida nas capitais brasileiras e no Distrito Federal, em 2008. Metodologia: trata-se de estudo epidemiológico ecológico que utiliza dados secundários de internação por doenças diarréias (desfecho) e de prevalência de aleitamento materno (exposição); foi estimado modelo estatístico binomial negativo [intervalo de confiança (IC) de 95 por cento], ajustado por rede de abastecimento de água e esgoto e analfabetismo da população. Resultados: tanto o aleitamento materno exclusivo (razão de taxas = 0,76; IC95 por cento: 0,61-0,94) quanto o aleitamento materno em crianças com nove a doze meses incompletos de vida (razão de taxas = 0,72; IC95 por cento: 0,52-0,99) podem reduzir as taxas de internação por doenças diarreicas na população estudada. Conclusão: os resultados sugerem que o aleitamento materno é uma pratica importante para redução média da taxa de internação hospitalar por doenças diarreicas na população de crianças com menos de um ano de vida.
Objective: evaluate the relationship between breastfeeding and hospitalization due to diarrheal diseases among children under one year of life in Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District, in 2008. Methodology: this is an epidemiological ecological study that employ Brazilian secondary data of hospitalization due to diarrheal diseases (outcome) and breastfeeding prevalences (exposure); a binomial negative statistical model has been estimated [confidence interval (CI) of 95 per cent], adjusted by water supply, sanitation and analfabetism of the population. RESULTS: both exclusive breastfeeding (RT = 0.76; CI95 per cent 0.61-0.94) and breastfeeding in children from nine to twelve incomplete months of life (RT = 0.72; CI95 per cent 0.52-0.99) can reduce hospitalization rates due to diarrheal diseases among the population. Conclusion: the results suggest that breastfeeding is an important practice to reduce hospitalization mean taxes due to diarrheal diseases among children up to one year of age.
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Humans , Male , Female , Child , Breast Feeding , Diarrhea, Infantile/diagnosis , Epidemiologic Studies , Poisson Distribution , HospitalizationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to compare different control charts to monitor the nosocomial infection rate per 1,000 patient-days. METHODS: The control charts considered in this study were the traditional Shewhart chart and a variation of this, the Cumulative Sum and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average charts. RESULTS: We evaluated 238 nosocomial infections that were registered in the intensive care unit and were detected by the Committee for Nosocomial Infection Control in a university hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in 2004 and 2005. The results showed that the traditional Shewhart chart was the most appropriate method for monitoring periods with large deviations, while the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average and Cumulative Sum charts were better for monitoring periods with smaller deviations of the mean infection rate. CONCLUSION: The ability to detect nosocomial outbreaks was improved by using the information provided by all three different control charts.
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Humans , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross Infection/diagnosis , Incidence , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Population Surveillance/methods , Statistical Distributions , Time FactorsABSTRACT
The spatial distribution of insects is essential to perform control strategies, to improve sample techniques and to estimate economic losses. We aimed to determine the spatial distribution of nests of Acromyrmex crassispinus (Forel) in Pinus taeda plantations. The experiments were carried out in P. taeda plantations with different ages (treatments: recently-planted, three and six-year old plants). The study took place in Rio Negrinho and in Três Barras, SC. Three plots of one hectare were delimited in each treatment, and plots were divided in 64 sample units. The analysis of the dispersion index [variance/mean relationship (I), index of Morisita (Iδ) and k exponent of negative binomial distribution] showed that the majority of the samplings presented random distribution. Among the three distributions of probabilities studied: Poisson, positive binomial and negative binomial, the Poisson distribution was the best model to fit the spatial distribution of A. crassispinus nests in all samplings. The result was a random distribution in the plantings of different ages.
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Animals , Ants , Nesting Behavior , Pinus taeda , DemographyABSTRACT
Objective The incidence of gastric carcinoma(GC) has significantly difference in different areas because it has different cancerogenic and stimulative factors in different areas. Through displaying the epidemic factors of popular GC in Wuwei city, it can supply etiological clue of the first-level prevention to GC. Methods The research methods about epidemiology of migrant were used to investigate the case fatality rate of GC about the people in Qitai county of Xinjiang province who immigrated from Wuwei. According to the information of GC-death registered, we fitted local cluster analyse with Possion-distribution model, and then the results were processed with case-control study of chi square test; Binomial distribution (p+q)n model was used to familial cluster analysis, and the statistical method of X2 was used to compare the difference between the actual incidence and theoretical incidence of GC. Adopting the history arrangement analysis, the canceration of four precancerous diseases were observed. Nitrogen content of nitrate and nitrite in drinking water were respectively measured by using ultraviolet spectrophotometric and hydrochloride naphthaline ethylenediamine methods. Results The death rates of GC of the first-generation and their descendants of emigrants were much lower than those contemporary beings in Wuwei, but were higher than those contemporary beings in Qitai country. The prevalence of GC had region and familial aggregation. The year canceration proportion of people who had precancerous diseases such as stomach polypus, atrophyic gastritis,gastric ulcer, and remnant stomach were 0.459 %, 0.431%, 0.381% and 0.178 % respectively. The percentage of crowd attributive risk were 41.26 %, 29.35 %, 4.68 % and 3.39 % respectively. Nitrogen contents of nitrate and nitrite either in surface water or in shallow water were significantly higher in Wuwei city than that in Lanzhou city (P＜0.01). Conclusion Death rates of GC for the emigrants of the first-generation and their descendants are much lower than their ancestry, but higher than those of the generation in Qitai county. The prevalence of GC has region and familial aggregation. It is the immanent factor of popular GC in Wuwei City that there are higher contents of nitrogen content of nitrate and nitrite in residenter' s drinking water and four precancerous diseases including stomach polypus, atrophyic gastritis, gastric ulcer,and remnant stomach.
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The objective of this paper is to find out a way that calculate the consumed peak value of oxygen in medical central oxygen supply system,which is the basis for discussion of purchasing hospital oxygen generating system.The author established a math model by poisson distribution to describe the consumed peak value of oxygen in medical central oxygen supply system to find out a convenience way to calculate the consumed peak value of oxygen.
ABSTRACT
Dilobopterus costalimai Young is one of the most important pests in Brazilian citrus crop because it transmits Xylella fastidiosa, a bacterium that causes Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC). We studied the spatial distribution of the insect, in order to develop a sampling plan to determine the proper moment to control the pest. D. costalimai was collected fortnightly, between 11/1999 until 4/2000, in a thirteen-year-old citrus orchard, where no insecticide was sprayed against this insect. Thirteen samples were performed in a grid of 100 yellow sticky traps (10 x 25 cm) in Taquaritinga County, Sao Paulo State. The variance of the sampling was higher than the mean in all samplings, with index ratio variance/mean (I) between 1.07 and 2.90, Morisita index between 1.07 and 1.57, k exponent of negative binomial distribution between 1.56 and 14.79. The chi-square goodness-of-fit test to Poisson distribution were not significant in seven samplings, however adjust to negative binomial were not significant in all samplings. The index b of Taylor´s Power Law was 1.3054, thus showing an aggregated distribution for this species in the field.
Dilobopterus costalimai Young é considerada uma das mais importantes pragas na citricultura brasileira por ser vetora de Xylella fastidiosa, bactéria causadora da doença Clorose Variegada dos Citros (CVC). Neste trabalho estudou-se a distribuição espacial do inseto com o objetivo de desenvolver um plano de amostragem para determinar o momento de controlar a praga. Foram feitas amostragens quinzenais de D. costalimai em um pomar de laranja-doce de treze anos de idade sem aplicação de inseticidas para controle desse inseto, entre 11/1999 e 4/2000. Treze amostragens foram realizadas em 100 pontos, utilizando-se armadilhas amarelas adesivas (10 x 25 cm), em Taquaritinga, estado de São Paulo. A variância amostral foi superior à média em todas as amostragens, com índice razão variância/média (I) entre 1,07 e 2,90, índice de Morisita entre 1,07 e 1,57, expoente k da distribuição binomial negativa variando de 1,56 a 14,79. Os testes de qui-quadrado de ajuste à distribuição de Poisson não foram significativos em sete amostragens, enquanto os testes de ajuste à distribuição binomial negativa não foram significativos em todas as amostragens. O coeficiente b da lei de potência de Taylor foi igual a 1,3054 mostrando que a praga se distribui de forma agregada no campo.
ABSTRACT
It is clinically important to evaluate the safety and efficacy of Kampo prescriptions in long-term treatment cases. One practical method for this issue is to evaluate the incidence rates of events in long-term treatment cases. This paper gives an outline of this method and describes a statistical approach for evaluating the incidence rates of events.