Trend analysis of chronic kidney disease incidence and mortality in Chinese population based on age-period-cohort model / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the changing trend and epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with age, period and birth cohort in Chinese population. Methods Based on the data of incidence and mortality of CKD in Chinese population aged 20-80 years from 1990 to 2019 in GHDx database, joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence and mortality trend of CKD. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of CKD incidence and mortality. Results Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence rate of chronic kidney disease in Chinese population increased from 146.37/100 000 in 1990 to 161.52/100 000 in 2019, while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 12.98/100 000 in 1990 to 11.23/100 000 in 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the risk of CKD incidence and death in the Chinese population increased with age, while the risk of CKD incidence increased with the increase of period. The risk of death did not change significantly with the increase of period. The cohort born later had a lower risk of CKD incidence and death compared to the cohort born earlier. Conclusion At present, the age effect and period effect of the incidence and death risk of chronic kidney disease in China are dominant. It is important to take effective measures and intervene in a timely manner, especially to strengthen the protection of older high-risk groups born earlier.

Disease Burden of Esophageal Cancer Attributable to High BMI and Death Prediction in China and the United States, 1990-2019 / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in the Chinese and United States populations from 1990 to 2019 and predict deaths over the next 10 years. Methods This study used Global Burden of Disease 2019 data to obtain mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) data by year, gender, and age for the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China and the United States from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze long-term trends. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to predict age-standardized mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in 2020–2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate for esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China increased from 1.44/105 to 1.80/105 and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 34.17/105 to 40.79/105. From the perspective of gender, the number of deaths, DALYs, and the corresponding age-standardized rate of males in China and the United States increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of Chinese women showed a downward trend, decreasing by 21.36/105 and 29.71/105, respectively. Joinpoint analysis results revealed that the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in the total population and men in China from 1990 to 2019 increased by 0.78% (95%CI: 0.71-0.84) and 1.52% (95%CI: 1.44-1.60), respectively, and that in females decreased by 0.88% (95%CI: −0.96-−0.80). AAPC in women in the United States rose at a slow rate of 0.07% (95%CI: 0.02-0.09). The burden of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue to rise in China and the United States in 2020–2030. Conclusion The disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI significantly increased in China from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by high BMI in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2030.

Epidemiological characteristics of childhood liver cancer in China in 2006-2017 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of liver cancer in Chinese children from 2006-2017, and to explore the correlation between hepatitis B and liver cancer in Children. Methods　The data of childhood liver cancer from 2006 to 2017 were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression program was used to analyze the trends of standardized incidence. Analysis was conducted to determine the distributions of incidence by region, sex and age group. The data of hepatitis B were collected from China Public Health Science Data Center. Pearson correlation was used to explore the incidence correlation between hepatitis B and liver cancer. Results　From 2006 to 2017, the standardized incidence rate of childhood liver cancer in China showed a downward trend before 2010, and then remained relatively stable (AAPC=-5.09%，95%CI:-13.22%~3.80%，P=0.253). The standardized incidence rate of liver cancer showed a decreased trend in urban children (AAPC=-3.52%，95%CI:-6.82%~-0.10%，P=0.045), while the standardized incidence rate was on an upward trend in rural children (AAPC=4.95%，95%CI:1.40%~8.63%，P=0.011). The incidence rates of liver cancer were higher in urban children than in rural children (ｚ=-4.071， P<0.001), in boys than in girls (ｚ=-2.425， P=0.015), and in children of the 0~4 age group than in children of the 5~9 and 10~14 age groups (H=22.285, P<0.001). The incidence rates of both hepatitis B and liver cancer showed a downward trend from 2006 to 2017， and there was a significant correlation（r=0.775，95%CI:0.319~0.927，P=0.005). Conclusion From 2006 to 2017, the incidence of liver cancer in Chinese children showed a decreased trend with significant differences between urban-rural areas, both sexes and age groups. Boys in urban areas and children in the 0~4 years age group should be the key targets for prevention and control in the future.

Epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in Lianyungang City in 2010-2022 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus disease and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of scrub typhus disease. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the population and regional distribution of scrub typhus. Seasonal characteristics were analyzed using concentration method and circular distribution method, and incidence trend was analyzed using joinpoint regression model. Results The annual incidence rate of scrub typhus was 0.95/100 000 from 2010 to 2022. The incidence rate of male was 0.77/100 000, lower than that of female 1.12/100 000 (χ2=18.89, P-=-62.3728, S=20.8960. The circular distribution results indicated that the peak day was October 19th, and the peak period was between October 7 to December 19. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the incidence rate from 2010 to 2022 was 13.70%, 95% CI (-8.62%~41.48%), and the incidence rate showed an upward trend (t=1.15, P=0.249). Conclusion The incidence of scrub typhus disease is strictly seasonal, and the incidence rate over the years shows an upward trend. It is necessary to strengthen monitoring and take various intervention measures to reduce the risk of scrub typhus disease.

Trends in Oncomelania hupensis distribution in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 based on the Joinpoint regression model / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To analyze the trends in Oncomelania hupensis distribution in Wuhan City, Hubei Province from 2003 to 2022, so as to provide insights into precision schistosomiasis control. Methods Data pertaining to O. hupensis snail survey in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 were collected. The trends in the proportion of areas with snail habitats, actual area with snail habitats, mean density of living snails and prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in snails were evaluated in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 with the slope of trend curve (β), annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using a Joinpoint regression model. Results During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in Wuhan City in 2005 and 2015, with a rise during the period from 2003 to 2005 (β1 = 5.93, t = 1.280, P > 0.05), a decline from 2005 to 2015 (β2 = −0.88, t = −2.074, P > 0.05) and a rise from 2015 to 2022 (β3 = 1.46, t = −2.356, P < 0.05). During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in islet endemic areas of Wuhan City in 2006 and 2015, with no significant differences in the trends from 2003 to 2006 (β1 = 4.64, t = 1.888, P > 0.05) or from 2006 to 2015 (β2 = −1.45, t = −2.143, P > 0.05), and with a tendency towards a rise from 2015 to 2022 (β3 = 2.04, t = −3.100, P < 0.05). During the period from 2003 through 2022, there were two turning points for the proportion of areas with snail habitats in inner embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City in 2012 and 2020, with a tendency towards a decline from 2003 to 2012 (β1 = −0.39, t = −4.608, P < 0.05) and with no significant differences in the trends from 2012 to 2020 (β2 = 0.03, t = 0.245, P > 0.05) and from 2020 to 2022 (β3 = 1.38, t = 1.479, P > 0.05). During the period from 2003 to 2022, the actual area with snail habitats all appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City, and in islet and inner embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (AAPC = −2.39%, −5.75% and −2.35%, all P values < 0.05). The mean density of living snails reduced from 0.087 snails/0.1 m2 in 2003 to 0.027 snails/0.1 m2 in 2022 in Wuhan City, with a significant difference in the tendency towards the decline (APC = AAPC = −11.47%, P < 0.05). The annual mean decline rate of the mean density of living snails was 17.36% in outside embankment endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = −17.36%, P < 0.05), and there was no significant difference in the trends in the mean density of living snails in islet endemic areas of Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = −0.97%, P > 0.05). In addition, the prevalence of S. japonicum infection in snails appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022 (APC = AAPC = −12.45%, P < 0.05). Conclusions The proportion of areas with snail habitats, actual area with snail habitats, mean density of living snails and prevalence of S. japonicum infection in snails all appeared a tendency towards a decline in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2022. Intensified snail control, modification of snail habitats, shrinking of areas with snails and implementation of grazing prohibition in snail-infested settings are required, in order to facilitate the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination in Wuhan City.

Trends in the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the changes in distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023, so as to provide insights into formulation of O. hupensis snail surveillance programs. Methods The reports on O. hupensis snail surveillance in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 were collected, and the snail surveillance data in forestlands were extracted. The trends in the proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails, occurrence of frames with living snails and density of living snails were evaluated using a Joinpoint regression model in Songjiang District from 2009 to 2023, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Results A total of 40 sites with snails were found in forestlands in 14 administrative villages of 4 townships, Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023. A total of 39 065 frames were surveyed for snails in settings covering an area of 609 600 m2, and there were 6 084 frames with snails, covering 151 250 m2 snail habitats. A total of 22 210 snails were captured, with the highest density of 260.00 snails/0.1 m2, and 6 262 snails were dissected, with no Schistosoma japonicum infection identified in snails. The proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 24.9%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest proportion seen in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2023 (both 0) and a mean proportion of 24.81%. The occurrence of frames with living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 41.5%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest occurrence in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and the mean occurrence of 15.57%. In addition, the density of living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 55.0%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest density in 2023 (0.96 snails/0.1 m2), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and a mean density of 0.57 snails/0.1 m2. Conclusions The difficulty in O. hupensis snail control and risk of imported snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality over years from 2009 to 2023. Supervision and assessment prior to seedling transplantation and intensified surveillance post-transplantation are recommended to reduce the risk of O. hupensis snail importation and spread.

Analysis on the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis before and after the COVID-19 in Hotan , Xinjiang , from 2015 to 2021 / 安徽医科大学学报

Objective @#To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture , before and after the epidemic , and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture . @*Methods @#The Hotan prefecture ’s pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021 . Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis , as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan , respectively. Furthermore , an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out. @*Results@#The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021 , the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased , with a turning point appearing in December 2018 . The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females , and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend . Among all age subgroups , those ≥60 age group had the highest incidence rate , with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease . A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021 , yet the trend was not statistically significant (P > 0. 05) .The turning points in the 19 - 59 age group and in those aged ≥60 were consistent with the overall trend . The results of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020 , dropping from 319. 28 per 100 000 in 2019 to 155 . 88 per 100 000 in 2021 , a decrease of 51 . 16% year-on-year , with a monthly average reduction of 0. 049 per 100 000 .@*Conclusion @# In 2018 ,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population ,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis . In the Hotan prefecture , the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis peaked in December 2018 and then started to decline . Under the impact of COVID-19 isolation measures in Xinjiang , the reported incidence rate showed a notable decrease starting in January 2020 . Reiterating preventive measures and remaining watchful for the possible appearance of latent tuberculosis patients is crucial as the pandemic fades .

Epidemiological trend analysis of liver cancer incidence in Luzhou City， Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2022 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016‒2022， and to provide a theoretical basis for improving liver cancer prevention and treatment strategies in Luzhou. MethodsData on liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016 to 2022 were collected， and the incidence rate， age-specific incidence rate， and annual percentage change （APC） were calculated. A Joinpoint regression model was used to fit a time series segment to the monthly number of new cases in each district and county of Luzhou to explore the trend of liver cancer incidence rate. ResultsThe incidence rate of liver cancer in Luzhou increased from 22.96/105 in 2016 to 32.31/105 in 2022. The incidence rate of liver cancer in men was higher than that in women in both 2016 and 2022， and the incidence rate of liver cancer in men increased from 34.83/105 in 2016 to 47.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.3%； the incidence rate of liver cancer in women increased from 10.50/105 in 2016 to 15.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.0%， and the differences in the change trends were not statistically significant （P>0.05）.The incidence of liver cancer was low in the age group of 0‒<40 years from 2016 to 2022 and increased with age； the incidence of liver cancer in the age group of 55 years and above was increasing at an average annual rate of 16.4%. ConclusionThe overall incidence of liver cancer in Luzhou is on the rise， and the incidence of liver cancer in men is higher than that in women. Middle-aged and elderly men are the key population for liver cancer prevention and treatment， and liver cancer prevention and treatment should be carried out in a targeted manner， taking into account regional development differences.

Disease Burden of Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Smoking from 1990 to 2019 in China / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ObjectiveTo analyze the trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019. MethodsUsing the Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software， based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data， we examined the mortality， Disability-Adjusted Life Years （DALY） data， and death rates of esophageal cancer attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019， along with national population data. The trends in disease burden was described and the age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the effects of age， period， and cohort on the trends in disease burden due to smoking. ResultsJoinpoint analysis indicated that the age-standardized mortality rate （ASMR） and DALY rate attributable to smoking showed an average annual percent change （AAPC） of -1.42% and -1.72%， respectively. For females， the AAPC values for ASMR and DALY rate were -3.26% and -3.70%， respectively， while for males， these were -1.28% and -1.54%， respectively. The disease burden by age attributable to smoking showed a general declining trend across all age groups in mortality and DALY rates. The disease burden from smoking， measured by age， displayed a consistent downward trend in both mortality and DALY rates across all age groups. The 40-44 age group saw the sharpest decline， with Annual Average Percent Changes （AAPC） of -3.05% for mortality and -3.04% for DALY rates. This was closely followed by the 45-49 age group， which experienced AAPC values of -2.73% and -2.72%， respectively. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model showed that the impact of age on mortality and DALY rates due to smoking initially increases with age before subsequently decreasing. The period effect revealed a general increase in the mortality rate from smoking in China， except for a dip between 2005 and 2010； otherwise， the trend was upward over time. The DALY rate demonstrated variability across different periods. The cohort effect indicated a decrease in both mortality and DALY rates due to smoking as successive birth cohorts progressed. ConclusionsOur study reveals that the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributed to smoking factors exhibits gender differences and shows an overall declining trend over time. Efforts should be intensified to enhance health education for men， particularly focusing on smoking cessation education for smokers aged 35-39， in order to improve the overall level of primary prevention of esophageal cancer.

Analysis of the Disease Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Attributable to High BMI in China from 1990 to 2019 based on Joinpoint Regression Model / 中国卫生统计

Objective To analyze the disease burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)attributable to high body mass index(BMI)in China from 1990 to 2019 in the context of rapid growth in high BMI rates.Methods Data was extracted from GBD 2019,and the disease burden of T2DM attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed for overall and subgroups defined by age and sex separately and jointly.The joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the trends of standardized death rate and standardized disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate.Results From 1990 to 2019,the prevalence of T2DM increased from 2928.78 per 100000 to 6328.79 per 100000 in China.The number of T2DM deaths attributed to high BMI increased from 10500 to 47500 and the standardized death rate increased from 1.25 per 100000 to 2.39 per 100000.The attributed DALY increased from 771800 person-years to 3737600 person-years,and the standardized DALY rate increased from 80.21 per 100000 to 181.54 per 100000.Years of life lost(YLL)and years lived with disability(YLD)and their standardized rates also increased.From 1990 to 2019,the annual average percentage change of the standardized death rate and the standardized DALY rate of T2DM attributable to high BMI were 2.28%and 2.81%,respectively,which were statistically significant(P<0.05)and males were both higher than females.The standardized DALY rate and the standardized death rate of males exceeded that of females in 2010 and 2014,respectively.Age-stratified results showed that the burden of T2DM,which is attributed to a high BMI,is even greater in people over 50 years old.The YLD rate attributable to high BMI increased the most among the 15～49 age group,reaching 323.99%.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the disease burden of T2DM that can be attributed to high BMI increased significantly in China.It is necessary to strengthen prevention and control efforts,effectively manage population BMI,and adopt key interventions for high-risk groups to reduce the disease burden of T2DM.

Characteristics and trend analysis of injury causes of death in Qingpu District of Shanghai，2002‒2020 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the characteristics and changing trend of injury cause of mortality of residents in Qingpu District from 2002 to 2020， and to provide scientific reference for formulating regional prevention and control measures. MethodsThe injury mortality data of the registered residents in Qingpu District from 2002 to 2020 were collected. The indicators such as crude mortality rate， standardized mortality rate， and the ranking of causes of death were calculated. ResultsFrom 2002 to 2020， the average annual crude mortality rate was 50.27/100 000， the age-standardized mortality rate based on the world standard population（ASRW） was 30.08/100 000， and the age-standardized mortality rate based on the 2010 Chinese census（ASMRC） was 35.58/100 000. The average annual crude mortality rate of males was higher than that of females ［Z=54.402， Mantel-Hanszel χ2=1 742.509， P<0.01）. The overall injury mortality rate showed a downward trend with an average annual percent change（AAPC）of -4.07% （95%CI： -5.23%‒-2.90%）， P<0.001］. The top four causes of injury death were transportation accident， indeliberate fall， drowning， and suicide. The leading causes of death in 0‒ years old， 15‒ years old and ≥65 years old were drowning， transportation accident and indeliberate fall， respectively. The ASRW of transportation accident， drowning and suicide all showed a decreasing trend， and the AAPC were -8.22% （95%CI： -10.16%‒-6.24%）， -6.99% （95%CI： -9.68%‒-4.22%） and -6.21% （95%CI： -9.38%‒-2.94%）， respectively. ConclusionThe injury death rate of residents in Qingpu District shows a decreasing trend， and the distribution characteristics of injury death are different among different genders and age groups. Corresponding prevention and control strategies should be adopted for different populations.

Joinpoint regression analysis on the epidemiological trend of influenza in Nantong city, Jiangsu province in 2010 - 2022 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Nantong city, explore its changing trend, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures. Methods The incidence data of influenza in Nantong city from 2010 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistical software. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of influenza incidence. Results The annual reported incidence of influenza in Nantong city showed an exponential upward trend from 2010 to 2022 (APC=25.25, P=0.002). The annual reported incidence rate of males was higher than that of females, and the incidence trend of both showed an exponential upward trend(Male: APC=24.40, P=0.002; Female: APC=26.11, P=0.002). The seasonal index showed a unimodal distribution, with a peak from December to February of the next year, and the highest value was 2.78 in January. The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed a rapid upward trend from 0 to 7 years old (β1=16.13, P1=-44.50, P=0.037), and a low slow downward trend from 10 to 45 years old (β1=-0.20, P=0.001), and lower tailing was observed in 45-85 years group (β1=0.04, P=0.162). Conclusion The overall incidence rate of influenza in Nantong City is on the rise. Children under 7 years old are the key protected population. We should control the key season, do a good job of publicity and education, encourage vaccination,and at the same time do a good job in pathogen monitoring, timely pay attention to the situation of epidemic strains, and scientific prevention and control.

Effect of Age and Sex on Stroke Mortality of Young and Middle-aged Adults in China, 2002-2019, and Predictions to 2030 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to examine the trends in stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults in China.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from the China national vital registration system. Significant changes in mortality were assessed by Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to explain the reasons for the changes. Future mortality and counts were predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.@*RESULTS@#Between 2002 and 2019, a total of 6,253,951 stroke mortality in young and middle-aged adults were recorded. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) of women showed a downward trend. The annual percent changes (APC) were -3.5% (-5.2%, -1.7%) for urban women and -2.8% (-3.7%, -1.9%) for rural women. By contrast, the AAMRs per 100,000 for rural men aged 25-44 years continued to rise from 9.40 to 15.46. The AAMRS for urban men aged 25-44 years and urban and rural men aged 45-64 years did not change significantly. Between 2020 and 2030, the projected stroke deaths are 1,423,584 in men and 401,712 in women.@*CONCLUSION@#Significant sex and age disparities in the trends of stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults were identified in China. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the burden of stroke in the young generation, especially for rural men, with a focus on the prevention and management of high risk factors.

Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.@*METHODS@#Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.@*RESULTS@#From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.

Analysis of epidemic trends and status of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic trends and current status in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021， and to provide evidence for formulating and optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies in the province. MethodsEpidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to investigate the epidemic trends of schistosomiasis， and the annual average percent change （AAPC） was used to assess the changing trend of schistosomiasis infection in humans and bovines. SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the target achievement status， infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and the areas with snails in 2021 to evaluate the differences among various districts and epidemic regions. ResultsBy 2021， 24 counties （61.50%） in the province had achieved the elimination goal， with hilly and marsh counties reaching 82.60% and 31.30%， respectively. The seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in human was 3.51% across the province. However， the seropositive rate in marshland areas （4.77%） was significantly higher than that in hilly areas （1.23 %） （χ2=3 827.51， P<0.001）. The total area with snails in the province was 84 938.32 hm2， including 82 196.86 hm2 in marshland areas and 2 741.46 hm2 in hilly areas. From 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the humans and bovines exhibited a declining trend， with AAPC values of -48.70 and -39.70， respectively. The decline rate in the hilly areas was higher than that in marshland areas. However， the area with snail showed an upward trend （AAPC=0.50）， with a growth rate of 5.80% in hilly areas， which was greater than that in marshland areas （0.40%）. ConclusionFrom 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and bovines in Jiangxi Province continued to decline， while the areas with snails increased. The prevention focus should still be on the marshland endemic areas， and attention should also be given to the risk of schistosomiasis in hilly endemic areas. Therefore， it is necessary to continue implementing a comprehensive prevention and control strategy that emphasizes controlling the sources of infection and adopts tailored measures based on local conditions and precise policies.

Analysis of incidence and influencing factors of congenital heart disease in perinatal infants in Henan province / 新乡医学院学报

Objective To analyze the incidence, trend and influencing factors of congenital heart disease(CHD) in perinatal infants in Henan province. Methods From 2011 to 2020,1 356 838 perinatal infants born from 28 weeks of pregnancy to 7 days after delivery were selected from 37 national birth defect monitoring points in Henan province as the research subjects, and the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants from different regions, fetal sex and maternal age were compared. The Joinpiont regression model was established to analyze the temporal change trend of the incidence rate of CHD in perinatal infants in Henan province from 2011 to 2020; the annual percentage change (APC) represented the internal trend of each segment, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) represented the overall change trend. The trend of gap in incidence rate of CHD in different regions, mother's age and perinatal sex was compared by the Joinpiont parallel test. Results From 2011 to 2020,19 004 cases of perinatal infants with CHD were detected in Henan province, with a total incidence of 140.06/10 000; the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=43.3% ,P<0.05) From 2011 to 2020, the incidence of CHD in urban perinatal infants in Henan province was significantly higher than that in rural areas, the incidence of CHD in male perinatal infants was significantly higher than that in female perinatal infants，and the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in older mothers was significantly higher than that in younger mothers (X2=7 259.160,5 415.473,499.520; P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020,the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in urban and rural areas of Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=42.5% ,44.5% ;P<0.05); the difference between urban and rural areas in the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants was increasing year by year(P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020,the incidence of CHD in male perinatal and famale perinatal infants in Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year(AAPC=44.3%，42.7% ;P<0.05). From 2011 to 2020, the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants of non-elderly and elderly pregnant women in Henan province showed an increasing trend year by year (AAPC=42.9% ,42.7% ;P<0.05).the difference between the elderly arid non-elderly pregnant women in the incidence of CHD In perinatal infants was increasing year by year (P<0.05). Conclusion From 2011 to 2020 ,the incidence of CHD in perinatal infants in Henan province showed an upward trend, and the regional distribution, fetal sex and maternal age were related to the incidence of perinatal CHD.

Burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2030 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030.@*METHODS@#The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model.@*RESULTS@#The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-2.58%, -2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: (-2.54%, -2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -4.92%, 95% CI: (-5.37%, -4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = -5.15%, 95% CI: (-5.64%, -4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI: (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.

Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai,China from 1973 to 2017:a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis / 肿瘤

Objective:To describe the epidemiological features and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Methods:Data on colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai was obtained through Shanghai Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System.Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent change(APC)and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the association between age,period and birth cohort and colorectal cancer. Results:A total of 105 847 cases and 60 447 deaths of colorectal cancer were diagnosed in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period.Both the number of new cases and the number of deaths showed an increasing trend.In the same period,the age-standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in urban areas of Shanghai increased significantly from 14.1/100 000 in 1973 to 27.7/100 000 in 2017,while the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 8.2/100 000 to 10.7/100 000.The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 20.4/100 000 and 11.0/100 000,respectively.With the increase of age,the age-standardized morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer showed an obvious upward trend.Taking 1993-1997 as reference,the risk of colorectal cancer in Shanghai reached the highest in 2013-2017,and the corresponding relative risk was 1.2(95％confidence interval:1.2-1.3),while the lowest was 0.9(95％confidence interval:0.8-1.0)during 1973-1977.Mortality risk,on the contrary,decreased with the increase of time.Before 1953-1957,the risk of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai increased with the increase of birth cohort time,and then showed a downward trend.There was a corresponding decline in the risk of colorectal cancer death among people born after 1957. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Shanghai showed an increasing trend from 1973 to 2017,but the prevalence trend of colorectal cancer is still different among different populations.

Monitoring and analysis of endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Suzhou New District from 2004 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the monitoring data of schistosomiasis from 2004 to 2021 in Suzhou New District， Jiangsu Province， and to provide evidence for improving schistosomiasis elimination strategies. MethodsFollowing the Opinions on Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou and the Technical Plan for Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis， Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou， the monitoring of schistosomiasis in the population and snail habitats from 2004 to 2021 was conducted. The Mann-Kendall method and Joinpoint regression method were employed to analyze the trend of epidemic indicators （such as seropositive rate， prevalence of snail frames， etc.）. Time series analysis （exponential smoothing model） was conducted to predict snail occurrence. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2021， a total of 73 680 people were serologically tested for schistosomiasis， with a positive rate of 0.084%. The seropositivity rate showed statistically significant differences between different years （χ2=70.73， P<0.05）， but there was no significant trend over time. In addition， 3 053 fecal tests were conducted and no positive result was found. The snail habitats covered an area of 70.11 hm2 and showed a decreasing trend （Z=-1.97， P<0.05）. A total of 30 093 frames were surveyed， of which 19.038% contained snails. The difference in the prevalence of snail frames between different years was statistically significant （χ2=7 203.09， P<0.05）， with a decreasing trend in the prevalence of snail frames （Z=-2.05， P<0.05）. A total of 26 296 live snails were seized and density of live snails was 0.874 snails per frame， showing a decreasing trend in the density of live snails （Z=-2.35， P<0.05）. A total of 12 391 snails were dissected and no infected snail was found. The areas treated with molluscicides remained stable at 264.60 hm2. An area of 27.77 hm2 achieved the goal of snail eradication through environmental modification， with a decreasing trend （Z=-2.44， P<0.05）. It is estimated that the prevalence of snail frames and snail density will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2026， but the snail habitat area will fluctuate significantly， showing an increasing trend. ConclusionNo indigenous cases of schistosomiasis and no infected snails are reported， indicating the successful consolidation of schistosomiasis prevention and control measures. However， the snail habitat area fluctuates greatly with an increasing trend， suggesting the need for long-term Oncomelania snail monitoring in local areas.

Joinpoint regression analysis and Epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis in Changning District of Shanghai in 2009 - 2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the tendency of viral hepatitis in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Cases of viral hepatitis in Changning District from 2009-2019 were collected , and the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results Among the 2009-2019 in Changning District, a total of 3 397 cases of viral hepatitis were reported , the annual average incidence rate was 49.32/100 000. Results from Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of viral hepatitis in Changning District was mainly due to hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Conclusions Although the annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis in Changning District is far below the incidence rate of viral hepatitis in China, but it still shows an increasing trend. This shows that the situation of prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Changning is still serious, and hepatitis B remains the key point of prevention of viral hepatitis in Shanghai.