Seasonal variations of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its markers using big-data of health check-ups

BACKGROUND@#It is crucial to understand the seasonal variation of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) for the detection and management of MetS. Previous studies have demonstrated the seasonal variations in MetS prevalence and its markers, but their methods are not robust. To clarify the concrete seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers, we utilized a powerful method called Seasonal Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL) and a big dataset of health checkups.@*METHODS@#A total of 1,819,214 records of health checkups (759,839 records for men and 1,059,375 records for women) between April 2012 and December 2017 were included in this study. We examined the seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers using 5 years and 9 months health checkup data and STL analysis. MetS markers consisted of waist circumference (WC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting plasma glucose (FPG).@*RESULTS@#We found that the MetS prevalence was high in winter and somewhat high in August. Among men, MetS prevalence was 2.64 ± 0.42 (mean ± SD) % higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Among women, MetS prevalence was 0.53 ± 0.24% higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Additionally, SBP, DBP, and HDL-C exhibited simple variations, being higher in winter and lower in summer, while WC, TG, and FPG displayed more complex variations.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This finding, complex seasonal variations of MetS prevalence, WC, TG, and FPG, could not be derived from previous studies using just the mean values in spring, summer, autumn and winter or the cosinor analysis. More attention should be paid to factors affecting seasonal variations of central obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance.

Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratoryinfectious diseases in Huzhou City / 预防医学

Objective @#To understand the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of respiratory infectious disease prevention and control strategies.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to notifiable respiratory infectious disease in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 were collected through the Infectious Disease Report Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious disease was analyzed using a descriptive epidemiological method.@*Results@#@*Conclusions@#A total of 31 314 cases of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022, with an average annual reported incidence of 169.12/105. The reported incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 (P<0.05). The top six reported diseases in terms of case numbers were influenza (20 048 cases), tuberculosis (6 920 cases), COVID-19 (1 893 cases), mumps (1 413 cases), pertussis (475 cases) and scarlet fever (442 cases), accounting for 99.61% of the total cases. The incidence of influenza, COVID-19 and pertussis showed a tendency towards a rise, the incidence of mumps and tuberculosis showed a tendency towards a decline (all P<0.05), and scarlet fever remained at a low-level incidence (P>0.05). Respiratory infectious diseases were mainly reported in winter (January, February and December), with 14 644 cases accounting for 46.77%. There were 15 068 cases reported in schools and kindergartens, accounting for 48.12%. The incidence showed a U-shaped variation with age, with the highest incidence in residents at ages of 10 years and below (987.68/105), and showing a tendency towards a rise in residents at ages of 60 years and above. @*@#The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 increased significantly. Influenza, tuberculosis, COVID-19, mumps and pertussis are key notifiable respiratory infectious diseases. Residents at ages of 10 years and below and 60 years and above should be given a high priority for respiratory infectious disease control.

Epidemiological trend analysis of liver cancer incidence in Luzhou City， Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2022 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016‒2022， and to provide a theoretical basis for improving liver cancer prevention and treatment strategies in Luzhou. MethodsData on liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016 to 2022 were collected， and the incidence rate， age-specific incidence rate， and annual percentage change （APC） were calculated. A Joinpoint regression model was used to fit a time series segment to the monthly number of new cases in each district and county of Luzhou to explore the trend of liver cancer incidence rate. ResultsThe incidence rate of liver cancer in Luzhou increased from 22.96/105 in 2016 to 32.31/105 in 2022. The incidence rate of liver cancer in men was higher than that in women in both 2016 and 2022， and the incidence rate of liver cancer in men increased from 34.83/105 in 2016 to 47.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.3%； the incidence rate of liver cancer in women increased from 10.50/105 in 2016 to 15.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.0%， and the differences in the change trends were not statistically significant （P>0.05）.The incidence of liver cancer was low in the age group of 0‒<40 years from 2016 to 2022 and increased with age； the incidence of liver cancer in the age group of 55 years and above was increasing at an average annual rate of 16.4%. ConclusionThe overall incidence of liver cancer in Luzhou is on the rise， and the incidence of liver cancer in men is higher than that in women. Middle-aged and elderly men are the key population for liver cancer prevention and treatment， and liver cancer prevention and treatment should be carried out in a targeted manner， taking into account regional development differences.

Trend analysis of hemagglutinin and ovalbumin content for influenza virus split vaccines in 2021 / 中国生物制品学杂志

@#Objective To analyze the trend of the hemagglutinin(HA) and ovalbumin contents in the lot release of influenza virus split vaccines in 2021,and evaluate the quality and quality control level of the vaccines.Methods The HA and ovalbumin content data of influenza virus split vaccines from two domestic enterprises in 2021 were collected and collated. The mean value and standard deviation were calculated according to the first 40 batches of data of the enterprise in the year,and the warning limit and action limit were established. The trend analysis of the above indexes was carried out to evaluate the stability and consistency of the product quality of the enterprise. Statistical data comparison and consistency analysis were made between the test results of the batch inspected by the lot release institution and the results of the enterprise.Results Through the retrospective data analysis of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines from two vaccine enterprises A and B,it was found that the content of H1N1 subtype HA and ovalbumin in the two enterprises and the content of Bv HA in the B enterprise had out of trend(OOT)situations,while the trend of other items was stable. The results of paired student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the samples inspected by the lot release institution showed that except Bv subtype HA(t = 1. 094 and 0. 742 respectively)and ovalbumin(w =-64 and 36 respectively)contents showed no statistically significant difference(P > 0. 05),the HA contents of H1N1(t = 3. 862,w = 232),H3N2(t = 8. 225 and3. 473 respectively)and By(t = 5. 616 and 4. 934 respectively)of the two enterprises had significant differences(P <0. 05). The results of enterprises were generally higher than the lot release institution. Bland-Altman test analysis found that the consistency between the test data of enterprise A's HA content and the data of the lot release institution was better than that of enterprise B.Conclusion The stability and consistency of data trends of active ingredients and main impurity ingredients of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine batches in 2021 were generally good. The trend analysis can identify potential problems in vaccine production,and enterprises should carefully implement trend analysis and effectively monitor the product quality of vaccines.

Epidemiological trends and disease burden of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children within 10 years / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To retrospectively analyze the epidemiological trend of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding in recent 10 years,and investigate the change of their disease burden,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the accurate prevention and control of children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods A total of 671 children with "lower gastrointestinal bleeding" who were diagnosed in our hospital from 2012 to 2021 were collected as research subjects. To analyze the microscopic examination rate and common etiology of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children in the past 10 years,as well as the epidemiological characteristics of different age groups, different regions and different basic diseases; Calculate and compare the rate of disability life lost (YLD), early death life lost (YLL) and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding within 10 years, and calculate the annual change percentage (AAPC) to analyze the change trend of disease burden. Results The microscopic examination rate of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding showed a trend of increasing in the past 10 years (P18 years old, hypertension and gastroenteritis. The DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate caused by lower gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 10 years showed an upward trend (P<0.05). Conclusion The microscopic examination rate of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children was graduallyincreasing,and the prevalence rate of basic diseases such as boys,hypertension and gastroenteritis was increasing;in addition,the disease burden caused by children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding was also increasing year by year and should be protected.

Trends on deaths from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico, 2000-2021 / Tendências das mortes por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México, 2000-2021

ABSTRACT Objetive: To provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality trends from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico from 2000 through 2021. Methods: The governmental records of deaths from acute pesticide poisoning were used. The age-standardized years of life lost and aged-standardized mortality rates were estimated. Significant changes in trends of annual percentage change were identified using Joinpoint regression. Results: Between 2000 and 2021, mortality was primarily observed in individuals aged 15 to 19 years. Males were the most affected. Self-inflicted pesticide poisoning was the primary registered reason for death. The age-standardized mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning was reduced from 2012 to 2021 (APC: -4.4; p=0.003). Conclusion: This report is the first study about the mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico. The results provided evidence to consider in developing laws to prevent acute pesticide poisoning.

RESUMO Objetivo: Fornecer uma análise abrangente das tendências de mortalidade por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas no México de 2000 a 2021. Métodos: Foram usados os registros governamentais de mortes por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas. Foram estimados os anos de vida perdidos estandardizados por idade e as taxas de mortalidade estandardizados por idade. Modificações significativas nas tendências de variação percentual anual foram identificadas usando a regressão Joinpoint. Resultados: Entre 2000 e 2021, a mortalidade foi observada principalmente em indivíduos na faixa etária de 15 a 19 anos. Os homens foram os mais afetados. O envenenamento por pesticida autoinfligido foi o principal motivo de morte registrado. A taxa de mortalidade estandardizada por idade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas foi reduzida de 2012 a 2021 (Annual Percent Change — APC: -4,4; p=0,003). Conclusão: Este relatório é o primeiro estudo sobre a taxa de mortalidade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México. Os resultados forneceram evidências a serem consideradas no desenvolvimento de leis para prevenir o envenenamento agudo por pesticidas.

Análise da tendência da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil, 2000 a 2022 / Analysis of the trend of mortality from external causes in older adults in Brazil, 2000 to 2022

Resumo Objetivo analisar a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil no intervalo temporal entre os anos 2000 e 2022 e identificar o perfil sociodemográfico de mortalidade. Método estudo ecológico de série temporal utilizando dados secundários, envolvendo a mortalidade em pessoas idosas por causas externas no Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2022. Os dados foram coletados a partir das bases de dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, das estimativas da população residente e de dados populacionais censitários disponibilizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. A frequência absoluta e relativa dos dados foi analisada a partir do software Excel 2010. As análises das tendências das taxas de mortalidade e regressão linear segmentada foram realizadas por meio do Joinpoint, com significância estatística avaliada por meio do teste de Monte Carl Resultados No período investigado, foram identificados 572.608 óbitos por causas externas em pessoas idosas com 60 anos ou mais. Em relação ao comportamento da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas, observou-se tendência de aumento nas taxas de mortalidade na maior parte do período estudado (2000 a 2013) com uma variação percentual anual (VPA: 1,86; IC95%: 1,5-2,2). Conclusão os resultados indicam uma tendência de crescimento da mortalidade de pessoas idosas por causas externas, refletindo a necessidade de priorização de políticas públicas que intervenham sobre esse evento.

Abstract Objective To analyze the trend of mortality due to external causes in older adults in Brazil within the temporal interval spanning from 2000 to 2022 and to identify the sociodemographic profile of mortality. Method Ecological time-series study utilizing secondary data, encompassing mortality in older adults due to external causes in Brazil, spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The data were collected from the databases of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System, population estimates, and census population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The absolute and relative frequency of the data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2010 software. The analysis of trends in mortality rates and segmented linear regression was conducted using Joinpoint, with statistical significance assessed through the Monte Carlo test. Results During the investigated period, 572,608 deaths due to external causes were identified in individuals aged 60 years or older. Regarding the mortality pattern due to external causes in older adults, an increasing trend in mortality rates was observed for the majority of the studied period (2000 to 2013) with an annual percent change (APC) of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2). Conclusion The results indicate a growing trend in mortality among older individuals due to external causes, highlighting the need for prioritizing public policies that address this issue.

Factores sociodemográficos en la dinámica del comportamiento delictivo: análisis descriptivo de criminalidad en Colombia, año 2022 / Socio-demographic factors in the dynamics of criminal behaviour: descriptive analysis of criminality in Colombia, year 2022 / Fatores sociodemográficos na dinâmica do comportamento criminal: análise descritiva da criminalidade na Colômbia, ano de 2022

El presente estudio de carácter descriptivo y analítico tiene como objetivo principal presentar el comportamiento criminal en Colombia para el 2022, desde un enfoque cuantitativo empleado para la extracción, análisis e interpretación de los registros administrativos del Sistema de Información Estadístico, Delincuencial, Contravencional y Operativo (SIEDCO), constituyéndose como un insumo para aquellos interesados en el estudio de la dinámica criminal, así como para quienes se encargan de diseñar estrategias para la contención del delito y la generación de política pública en materia de seguridad. En este sentido y en el marco de las dinámicas sociodemográficas, en una primera parte se aborda de manera general el proceso de homogenización de los registros administrativos llevado a cabo por la Policía Nacional y la Fiscalía General de la Nación. Y en una segunda parte, con especial énfasis en el homicidio intencional, se presenta el análisis de la información que permitió identificar las principales variables que influyen en la comisión del delito, de acuerdo con las cifras contenidas en el SIEDCO, en el periodo comprendido entre el 1 de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2022, comparado con la misma temporalidad del 2021, en el que se detallan los delitos que afectan la integridad personal y el patrimonio económico de quienes habitan el territorio colombiano; se hallaron incrementos considerables en estos y se resaltan los factores de oportunidad para su comisión, situación contraria a la que se evidenció sobre las afectaciones a la vida y la integridad, conjunto de conductas que, según lo registrado, decrecieron en el periodo analizado. Finalmente, se ofrece un aporte a la contención desde la actividad de policía y una serie de conclusiones que permitan ampliar la visión sobre los diversos fenómenos y enriquecer la generación de conocimiento en el campo de la criminología.

The main objective of this descriptive and analytical study is to present criminal behaviour in Colombia for 2022, from a quantitative approach used for the extraction, analysis and interpretation of the administrative records of the Statistical, Criminal, Contraventional and Operational Information System (SIEDCO), constituting an input for those interested in the study of criminal dynamics, as well as for those responsible for designing strategies for the containment of crime and the generation of public policy on security. In this sense, and within the framework of socio-demographic dynamics, the first part of the paper deals in a general way with the process of homogenisation of administrative records carried out by the National Police and the Attorney General's Office. The second part, with special emphasis on intentional homicide, presents the analysis of the information that made it possible to identify the main variables that influence the commission of the crime, according to the figures contained in SIEDCO, in the period between 1 January and 31 December 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, in which the crimes that affect the personal integrity and economic patrimony of those who live in Colombian territory are detailed; considerable increases were found in these and the factors of opportunity for their commission are highlighted, contrary to the situation that was evidenced in the affectations to life and integrity, a group of conducts that, according to what was recorded, decreased in the period analysed. Finally, we offer a contribution to containment from the police activity and a series of conclusions that allow us to broaden the vision of the diverse phenomena and enrich the generation of knowledge in the field of criminology.

O principal objetivo deste estudo descritivo e analítico é apresentar o comportamento criminal na Colômbia para 2022, a partir de uma abordagem quantitativa utilizada para a extração, análise e interpretação dos registros administrativos do Sistema de Informação Estatística, Criminal, Contravencional e Operacional (SIEDCO), constituindo um insumo para os interessados no estudo da dinâmica criminal, bem como para os responsáveis pela elaboração de estratégias para a contenção do crime e a geração de políticas públicas de segurança. Nesse sentido, e dentro da estrutura da dinâmica sociodemográfica, a primeira parte do artigo trata de forma geral do processo de homogeneização dos registros administrativos realizado pela Polícia Nacional e pela Procuradoria Geral da República. A segunda parte, com ênfase especial no homicídio doloso, apresenta a análise das informações que permitiram identificar as principais variáveis que influenciam o cometimento do crime, de acordo com os números contidos no SIEDCO, no período entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de dezembro de 2022, em comparação com o mesmo período de 2021, no qual são detalhados os crimes que afetam a integridade pessoal e o patrimônio econômico daqueles que vivem em território colombiano; Neles foram encontrados aumentos consideráveis e são destacados os fatores de oportunidade para seu cometimento, ao contrário da situação que se evidenciou nas afetações à vida e à integridade, grupo de condutas que, segundo o que foi registrado, diminuiu no período analisado. Finalmente, oferecemos uma contribuição para a contenção da atividade policial e uma série de conclusões que nos permitem ampliar a visão dos diversos fenômenos e enriquecer a geração de conhecimento no campo da criminologia.

Distribución espacial y tendencia secular (1991-2014) de nacidos pequeños para la edad gestacional en Jujuy / Spatial distribution and secular trend (1991­2014) of small for gestational age infants born in Jujuy

Introducción. El feto que no alcanza el potencial de crecimiento esperado en el útero se considera pequeño para la edad gestacional (PEG). Esta restricción depende de factores genéticos y/o ambientales; la altura geográfica es uno muy relevante. Este trabajo analiza la distribución espacial de las prevalencias de PEG y su tendencia secular en Jujuy (1991-2014). Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los registros de 308 469 nacidos vivos de Jujuy (Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud). Se estimaron prevalencias de PEG (peso/edad gestacional

Introduction. A fetus that does not reach the expected growth potential in utero is considered small for gestational age (SGA). Such restriction depends on genetic and/or environmental factors, being altitude a very relevant factor. This study analyzes the spatial distribution of the prevalence of SGA and its secular trend in Jujuy (1991­2014). Materials and methods. The records of 308 469 live births in Jujuy (Health Statistics and Information Department) were analyzed. The prevalence of SGA (weight/gestational age < P10 and < P3) was estimated for sex according to the INTERGROWTH-21 st standard in the ecoregions of Jujuy (Valle and Ramal ­less than 2000 MASL­, Puna, and Quebrada) across 3 periods (1991­2000, 2001­2009, 2010­2014) and proportions were compared. The secular trend was assessed using the Joinpoint regression analysis. Results. The overall prevalence of SGA was 2.3% (< P3) and 7% (< P10). Significantly higher values were observed in Puna and Quebrada in both SGA categories and across all periods. Only in Valle, significant differences were observed between sexes across all periods. The prevalence of SGA showed a significant downward secular trend at a provincial and regional level, and this was greater in Quebrada (5.2% < P3 and 3.5% < P10). Conclusions. A consistent and significant decrease in the prevalence of SGA has been observed since the 1990s in Jujuy, where altitude is itself a determining factor of size at birth, since the Puna and Quebrada regions showed the highest prevalence of SGA during the entire period.

Three years of COVID-19 pandemic: comparative analysis of incidence, lethality and mortality among the States of the south region of Brazil / Três anos de pandemia da COVID-19: análise comparativa da incidência, letalidade e mortalidade entre os Estados da região sul do Brasi

Introduction: the first COVID-19 case in Brazil was confirmed on February 26, 2020. As of March 17, 2023, the Ministry of Health reported 699,634 deaths from COVID-19, with a case fatality rate of 1.9%. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil extends to socioeconomic and healthcare systems, reflecting significant regional disparities. Objective: To analyze mortality, incidence, and case fatality rates for COVID-19 in the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, in the southern region of Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study using official Brazilian secondary data for COVID-19 cases and deaths. Data were extracted from the dashboard of the State Health Department of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Temporal series were developed for trend analysis using the Prais-Winsten regression model. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA 14.0 software (College Station, TX, USA, 2013). Results: In the analysis of rates over the entire period, trends for mortality, case fatality, and incidence in the state of Santa Catarina are decreasing, decreasing, and stationary, respectively. In Paraná, rates over the entire period showed a stationary trend for mortality, decreasing for case fatality, and increasing for incidence. Conclusion: COVID-19 had a devastating effect on the states of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Both states experienced the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, with higher case fatality and mortality rates observed in Paraná, while Santa Catarina had a higher incidence rate over the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tends of "Zero-dose" children aged 12-23 months in Togo from 2000 to 2017 and predictions for 2030

Guided by the principle of leaving no one behind by improving equitable access and use of new and existing vaccines, the Immunization Agenda 2030 aims, among other things, to halve the incidence of "zero-dose" at the national level. This study aimed at studying the tends of the prevalence of "zerodose" children from 2000 to 2017 and making predictions for 2030. The study consisted of secondary data analyses from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Togo. The study population consisted of children aged 12-23 months surveyed during MICS2 in 2000, MICS3 in 2006, MICS4 in 2010 and MICS6 in 2017. The dependent variable was the "zero-dose" vaccination status (1=Yes vs 0=No). The explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household and environment. The study generated the overall annual percentage changes (APC) and by the independent variables. As a result, the prevalence of children with "zero-dose" expected for 2030 was estimated using Excel 2013 and Stata 16.0 software. In total, 636, 864, 916 and 952 children aged 12-23 months were included for MICS2, MICS3, MICS4 and MICS7, respectively. The prevalence of "zerodose" children decreased from 37.15% in 2000 to 31.72% in 2006, then 30.10% in 2010 and 26.86% in 2017, with an overall APC= - 1.89%. The highest relative annual decrease was from 2000 to 2006. If the historical rate of decrease remains unchanged, we predict that percentage of "zero-dose" children aged 12-23 months will be 20.96% in 2030, with a decrease of 22% compared to 2017, against a target of 50%. We suggest that strengthening strategies to increase full immunization coverage of children will contribute to reducing the percentage of zero dose children. A prerequisite will be a better understanding of the predictors of the "zero-dose" phenomenon in children

Prediction of the disease burden of genital herpes in China in 1990 -2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the current situation and trend of genital herpes disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of genital herpes. Methods Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the trend of the burden of genital herpes disease in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using the Joinpoint software based on the indicators of incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and disability-lost life years. The ARIMA time series model was established to predict the development trend of genital herpes diseases in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of genital herpes in China had a downward trend. The incidence of the disease was mainly concentrated in the age group of 15-49 years old, and the DALY rate in this age group showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=0.73, P < 0.001). The age group of 50-69 years old showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=0.09, P < 0.05). The DALY rate of genital herpes in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the overall disease burden of women in China was higher than that of men. The ARIMA model predicted that the incidence of genital herpes and DALY rate in China would continue to increase from 2020 to 2024. Conclusion The disease burden of genital herpes in China is still on the rise. It is necessary to strengthen the safe sexual behavior education and actively carry out health education among young and middle-aged people.

Status and trend analysis of neuropsychological development of children aged 0‒2 in Tongzhou， Beijing， 2017‒2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo describe the neuropsychological development screening of 0‒2 years in Tongzhou from 2017 to 2021 so as to understand the status and trend of developmental delay （DD）. MethodsAnnual report data of 21 community health service centers in Tongzhou District from 2017 to 2021 were clustered， Chi square test was used to analyze the differences in positive rate and DD rate of children aged 0‒2 years with different ages and household registration， and Chi square trend test was used to analyze the linear trend of each age group and household registration. The Gesell test results in 762 children with developmental delay were analyzed， and Chi square test was used to compare the age distribution differences in gross motor， fine motor， language and personal-social behaviors. ResultsThe DD rate of children aged 0‒2 years in 2017‒2021 was 0.43％. A decreasing trend of DD rate in the 0‒ age group was observed （χ2=14.135， P<0.001）， while an increasing trend of DD rate in the 1‒ and <3 age groups was observed （χ2=5.375， P=0.020； χ2=5.558， P=0.018）. The DD rate of children aged 0‒2 years with Beijing household registration was higher （χ2=12.504， P<0.001）. The DD rate of gross motor was the highest in the 0‒ age group （64.60%）， the DD rate of language was the highest in the <3 age group （85.97%）， and a statistically significant difference of gross motor and language was separately found in the three age groups （χ2=183.061， P<0.001； χ2=78.450， P<0.001）. ConclusionAge and Beijing household registration are the influencing factors of DD for children aged 0‒2， and 0‒ years and <3 years are the critical periods for guidance and intervention to promote the development of gross motor and language abilities.

Epidemiological characteristics of malignant tumor mortality among residents in Yuyao from 2014 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo determine the death level and change trend of malignant tumors among residents in Yuyao， and to provide support for accurate prevention and control of malignant tumors. MethodsWe collected the death monitoring data of Yuyao registered residents from 2014 to 2021， and calculated the indicators， including crude mortality rate （CMR）， standardized mortality rate （SMR）， potential years of life lost （PYLL）， average years of life lost （AYLL）， and PYLL rate （PYLLR）. We also calculated the average annual change percentage （AAPC） using Joinpoint regression model. ResultsThere were 13 754 deaths from malignant tumors in Yuyao from 2014 to 2021， accounting for 26.54% of the total deaths in the same period. The average annual mortality rate was 205.63/105， and the standardized mortality rate was 115.62/105. The SMR showed a downward trend in 8 years （AAPC=-4.76%， t=-2.296， P=0.061）. The average annual mortality of malignant tumors was 274.15/105， and the standardized mortality was 149.83/105. The average annual mortality of female malignant tumors was 139.03/105， the standardized mortality was 81.01/105. Male mortality was higher than the female mortality （χ2=1 487.389， P<0.001）.The mortality rate of malignant tumors increased with age （AAPC=54.94%，t=27.678，P<0.001）. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in different age groups showed a downward trend in 8 years （AAPC=-5.74% for 0- years old group， -8.49% for 15- years old group， -6.02% for 45- years old group， and -3.49% for ≥65 years old group）. The top five causes of death from malignant tumors in residents were lung cancer， gastric cancer， liver cancer， esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer， accounting for 68.15% of all deaths from malignant tumors. Lung cancer ranked first among the causes of death from male and female malignant tumors. PYLL caused by malignant tumor death was 96 585.50 person years， AYLL was 7.02 years per person ， and PYLLR was 16.42‰. ConclusionThe mortality rate of malignant tumors among registered residents in Yuyao is on the decline， but it is still the primary death cause threatening the residents. Lung cancer is the malignant tumor that causes the greatest loss of life. It is urgent to build a comprehensive intervention system for malignant tumors that focuses on men， middle-aged and elderly people， advocate a healthy lifestyle， and combine early screening and reasonable treatment to block disease progress.

Epidemiological characteristics of respiratory disease mortality in residents of Baoshan，Shanghai 2009‒2020 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the epidemiological characteristics of respiratory disease mortality in Baoshan residents during the period of 2009‒2020. MethodsRespiratory disease deaths of Baoshan residents from 2009‒2020 were collected. ICD-10 codes were used to classify the causes of death， and R-4.2.1 was applied for statistical analysis. The average annual percent change （AAPC） of standardized mortality rates of different respiratory diseases were analyzed by using Joinpoint 4.9.0.0. ResultsThe average annual mortality rate of respiratory diseases in Baoshan from 2009 to 2020 was 58.86/105， and the standardized mortality rate was 35.62/105， which was the 3rd leading cause of mortality. The mortality rate of respiratory diseases was higher in men than in women （χ2=46.70， P<0.001）. COPD ranked first among respiratory diseases in Baoshan from 2009 to 2020， followed by pneumonia， asthma and pneumoconiosis in that order. The standardized mortality rate for COPD decreased from 38.66/105 in 2009 to 19.88/105 in 2020 （AAPC=-6.6%， 95%CI： -8.2% to -4.9%， P<0.001）. The standardized mortality rate of asthma decreased from 2.86/105 in 2009 to 1.43/105 in 2020 （AAPC=-5.8%， 95%CI： -8.8% to -2.8%， P<0.01）. The standardized mortality rate of pneumoconiosis decreased from 0.64/105 in 2009 to 0.12/105 in 2020 （AAPC=-7.4%， 95%CI： -13.0% to -1.5%， P<0.05）. The standardized mortality rate for pneumonia decreased from 2.63/105 in 2009 to 0.70/105 in 2020 （AAPC=-6.2%， 95%CI： -12.2% to 0.2%， P=0.056）， but not statistically significant. The annual average mortality rates of COPD， pneumonia and asthma were all highest in January. Crude mortality rates for COPD （χ2=2 669.01， P<0.001）， pneumonia （χ2=217.82， P<0.001）， asthma （χ2=100.09， P<0.001）， pneumoconiosis （χ2=26.46， P<0.001） and all categories of respiratory diseases （χ2=2 995.84， P<0.001） increased with age showed an increasing trend. The crude mortality rates for COPD （χ2=101.69， P<0.001）， pneumonia （χ2=7.39， P<0.01） and asthma （χ2=7.41， P<0.01） were higher in the central than in the northern part of Baoshan District， while the crude mortality rate for COPD （χ2=19.97， P<0.001） was higher in the central than in the southern part. ConclusionThe attention should be focused on COPD； increased detection in males and the elderly， especially in winter and spring； and a good balance between environmental and economic when planning the regional development.

Mortality and years of life lost of lung cancer among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 1995 to 2021 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the epidemiological traits and potential years of life lost associated with lung cancer mortality among inhabitants of Shanghai's Pudong New Area from 1995 to 2021， in order to serve as a reference for developing intervention approaches. MethodsThe death surveillance system was used to gather statistics on lung cancer deaths. Crude mortality rate （CMR）， standardized mortality rate （SMR）， potential years of life lost （PYLL）， average years of life lost （AYLL）， annual percent change （APC） of the lung cancer deaths were analyzed. The impact of age-structural and non-age-structural factors on changes in lung cancer mortality was quantified using difference decomposition. ResultsThe CMR and SMR of lung cancer among residents in Pudong New Area between 1995 and 2021 were 58.21/105 and 26.75/105， respectively. The CMR of lung cancer increased over the years （APC=1.91%， 95%CI=1.60%‒2.30%； Z=11.487， P<0.001）， and the SMR of lung cancer declined over the years （APC=-1.50%， 95%CI=-1.80%‒-1.20%； Z=-9.006， P<0.001）. Age structure factors and gender factors contributed to the increase of lung cancer mortality， while non-population age structure factors overall appeared to play a protective role which might be related to the improvements in factors such as tobacco control and environmental management. The PYLL of lung cancer was 160 296 person years， the PYLL rate was 2.24‰， and the AYLL was 3.86 years per person. ConclusionAge structure factors are a significant contributor to the disease burden and result in the increase in the crude lung cancer mortality rate of Pudong residents of shanghai. Comprehensive monitoring， preventive， and control methods should be implemented.

Application of lost workdays in surveillance and assessment of non-fatal occupational injuries: Based on European Statistics on Accidents at Work / 环境与职业医学

Background The severity of occupational injury in countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany is usually analyzed using lost workdays, but in existing occupational injury surveillance research in China, the application of this index is rare. Objective To evaluate the application value of lost workdays in non-fatal occupational injury surveillance, and provide a reference for the construction of occupational injury surveillance index system. Methods The public data of European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) from 2010 to 2019 on non-fatal injury accidents in 27 member states of the European Union were used. Non-fatal occupational injury is defined as an injury event during occupational activities or at work resulting a victim's absence from work for ≥4 d. According to the European Statistics on Accidents at Work-Summary methodology, the lost workdays were divided into 8 categories (4-6 d, 7-13 d, 14-20 d, 21-30 d, 31-91 d, 92-182 d, 183 d and above, and unknown). Annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were used to evaluate the overall trend changes in the incidence rate of non-fatal occupational injury accidents in different lost workdays from 2010 to 2019, and the non-fatal occupational injury accidents in key industries. The characteristics of the occurrence of non-fatal occupational injuries were analyzed in conjunction with the changes in non-fatal occupational injuries in different lost workdays in the industry. Results From 2010 to 2019, the overall incidence of non-fatal occupational injury accidents in the European Union showed a downward trend, and the AAPC was −1.0% (P<0.05). The accident rates of lost workdays of 4-6 d and 92-182 d showed an upward trend, and the AAPC were 7.9% and 5.8% respectively (P<0.05). The average annual accident rates of non-fatal occupational injuries (≥4 d) in Categories C (manufacturing industry), E (water supply, sewage treatment, waste management and remediation), and F (construction industry) showed a linear downward trend, and the AAPC were −3.0%, −2.5%, and −1.5%, respectively (P<0.05). However, among them, the rate of non-fatal occupational injury accidents with 92-182 d of lost workdays in the manufacturing industry showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 3.7% (P<0.001). Conclusion Using lost workdays combined with APC and AAPC by Join-point linear regression analysis can measure the severity and trend changes of non-fatal occupational injury accidents in different industries and different lost workdays. This indicator has an important practical significance in evaluating the effectiveness of occupational injury prevention and control strategies adopted by countries and enterprises.

Trend and prediction of fatality due to occupational injuries in China / 环境与职业医学

Background Occupational injury is one of the important causes of death among the working population and a worldwide hot topic, but there are few relevant studies on the trend and prediction of occupational injury attributable deaths in China. Objective To analyze the trend of occupational injury attributable deaths in China from 2000 to 2019, predict the deaths of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024 by contructing a gray GM(1,1) model, and provid a reference for surveillance and assessment of occupational injuries. Methods Mortality, crude mortality rates, and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China by year, sex, and age groups were calculated using data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Join-point model was used to analyze possible trend of standardized mortality rate from 2000 to 2019, and calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). After a gray model GM(1,1) was established, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by posterior error ratio (C) and small error probability (P) and rated as Level 1 (good, C≤0.35 and P≥0.95) or Level 2 (qualified, 0.35<C≤0.50 and 0.80≤P<0.95). Then the gray model was further used to predict the number of deaths and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 2000 to 2019, the deaths due to occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, the number of deaths decreased from 111557 to 61780, the crude mortality rate decreased from 8.58/100000 to 4.34/100000, the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.67/100000 to 3.65/100000, and the AAPC of standardized mortality rate was −4.0% (P<0.05); the number of male deaths decreased from 87760 to 49192, and the male standardized mortality rate decreased from 11.78/100000 to 5.68/100000; the number of female deaths decreased from 23797 to 12588, and the female standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.34/100000 to 1.55/100000; the AAPCs of male and female standardized mortality rate were −3.9% and −4.1% respectively. The accuracy of the established gray model for deaths (C=0.09, P=1) was rated as Level 1, and that for standardized mortality rate (C=0.41, P=0.9) was rated as level 2, which allowed for prediction extrapolation. The model showed that from 2020 to 2024, the number of occupational injury attributable deaths would be 76039, 73849, 71721, 69655, and 67649, and the standardized mortality rate would be 4.23/100000, 4.07/100000, 3.92/100000, 3.77/100000, and 3.62/100000, respectively. Conclusion From 2000 to 2019, the standardized mortality rate of occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, and it is predicted that the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 will still show a downward trend, but the number of deaths will remain high, so it is necessary to continue to strengthen prevention and control of occupational injuries.

Joinpoint regression analysis and Epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis in Changning District of Shanghai in 2009 - 2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the tendency of viral hepatitis in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Cases of viral hepatitis in Changning District from 2009-2019 were collected , and the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results Among the 2009-2019 in Changning District, a total of 3 397 cases of viral hepatitis were reported , the annual average incidence rate was 49.32/100 000. Results from Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of viral hepatitis in Changning District was mainly due to hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Conclusions Although the annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis in Changning District is far below the incidence rate of viral hepatitis in China, but it still shows an increasing trend. This shows that the situation of prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Changning is still serious, and hepatitis B remains the key point of prevention of viral hepatitis in Shanghai.

The predictive effect of ARIMA model for occupational pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province / 中国职业医学

Objective: To verify the accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in predicting the incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis (hereinafter referred as pneumoconiosis) and to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in the next five years. Methods: A follow-up survey was performed to collect data on pneumoconiosis patients reported in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2021. Collected data from 1956 to 2016 were used as the training set to build an ARIMA model. Collected data from 2017 to 2021 were used as the prediction set to evaluate the predicting result of the ARIMA model. The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province in next five years. Results: The ARIMA (1,1,2) model was set up after model identification and order estimation. The model was used to predict the prediction set, and its result was good. The ARIMA result and actual values in 2021 were 213 and 210 cases, respectively, with a difference of only three cases. The number of pneumoconiosis cases predicted using the ARIMA model in Guangdong Province from 2022 to 2026 was 214, 204, 202, 194, and 191 cases, respectively, showing a trend of low-level prevalence. Conclusion: The ARIMA model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting pneumoconiosis incidence over a long period of time and with large sample sizes. The forecast results of the ARIMA(1,1,2) model indicate that the incidence of pneumoconiosis in Guangdong Province will be around 200 cases in the next five years, indicating a low-level prevalence.