Modelling the cost-effectiveness of essential and advanced critical care for COVID-19 patients in Kenya

BackgroundCase management of symptomatic COVID-19 patients is a key health system intervention. The Kenyan government embarked to fill capacity gaps in essential and advanced critical care needed for the management of severe and critical COVID-19. However, given scarce resources, gaps in both essential and advanced critical care persist. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of investments in essential and advanced critical care to inform the prioritization of investment decisions. MethodsWe employed a decision tree model to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of investment in essential care (EC) and investment in both essential and advanced critical care (EC+ACC) compared to current health care provision capacity (status quo) for COVID-19 patients in Kenya. We used a health system perspective, and an inpatient care episode time horizon. Cost data was obtained from primary empirical analysis while outcomes data was obtained from epidemiological model estimates. We used univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to assess the robustness of the results. ResultsThe status quo option is more costly and less effective compared to investment in essential care and is thus dominated by the later. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Investment in essential and advanced critical care (EC+ACC) was US $1,378.21 per DALY averted and hence not a cost-effective strategy when compared to Kenyas cost-effectiveness threshold (USD 908). ConclusionWhen the criterion of cost-effectiveness is considered, and within the context of resource scarcity, Kenya will achieve better value for money if it prioritizes investments in essential care before investments in advanced critical care. This information on cost-effectiveness will however need to be considered as part of a multi-criteria decision-making framework that uses a range of criteria that reflect societal values of the Kenyan society. Key questionsO_ST_ABSWhat is already known?C_ST_ABSO_LIThe COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for substantial health effects in low- and middle-income countries C_LIO_LIThe case management of COVID-19 is one of the key control interventions deployed by country health systems. C_LIO_LISimilar to other low- and middle-income countries, Kenya had substantial gaps in both essential and advanced critical care at the beginning of the pandemic. C_LI What are the new findings?O_LIProvision of essential care and advanced critical care for COVID-19 at the current health system capacity (status quo) was costly and the least effective strategy. C_LIO_LIInvestment in both essential care and advanced critical care for COVID-19 is not cost-effective in Kenya when compared to investment in essential care. C_LI What do the new findings imply?O_LIPrioritizing investments in filling capacity gaps in essential care before investing in filling capacity gaps in advanced critical care for COVID-19 is more cost-effective in Kenya C_LIO_LIThese findings are intended to inform the sequencing of investments in case management rather than the selection of either strategy, within a context of substantial resource constraint, and capacity gaps in both essential and advanced critical care or COVID-19 C_LIO_LIKenya will need to consider these findings on cost-effectiveness within a multi-criteria decision-making framework that use a range of criteria that reflect societal values. C_LI

COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Underlying Epidemic Waves in Kenya

Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of a new higher-transmissibility variant. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Our predictions of current population exposure in Kenya ([~]75% June 1st) have implications for a fourth wave and future control strategies. One Sentence SummaryCOVID-19 spread in Kenya is explained by mixing heterogeneity and a variant less constrained by high population exposure

Examining Unit Costs for COVID-19 Case Management in Kenya

IntroductionCase management for COVID-19 patients is one of key interventions in country responses to the pandemic. Countries need information on the costs of case management to inform resource mobilization, planning and budgeting, purchasing arrangements, and assessments of the cost-effectiveness of interventions. We estimated unit costs for COVID-19 case management for patients with asymptomatic, mild to moderate, severe, and critical COVID-19 disease in Kenya. MethodsWe estimated per patient per day unit costs of COVID-19 case management for patients that are asymptomatic and those that have mild to moderate, severe, and critical symptoms. For asymptomatic and mild to moderate patients, we estimated unit costs for home-based care and institutional (hospitals and isolation centers). We used an ingredients approach, adopted a health system perspective and patient episode of care as our time horizon. We obtained data on inputs and their quantities from COVID-19 case management guidelines, home based care guidelines, and human resource guidelines, and augmented this with data provided by three public covid-19 treatment hospitals in Kenya. We obtained input prices for services from a recent costing survey of 20 hospitals in Kenya and for pharmaceuticals, non-pharmaceuticals, devices and equipment from market price databases for Kenya. ResultsPer day per patient unit cost for asymptomatic patients and patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 disease under home based care are KES 1,993.01 (USD 18.89) and 1995.17 (USD 18.991) respectively. When these patients are managed in an isolation center of hospital, the same unit costs for asymptomatic patients and patients with mild to moderate disease are 7,415.28 (USD 70.29) and 7,417.44 (USD 70.31) respectively. Per day unit costs for patients with severe COVID-19 disease managed in general hospital wards and those with critical COVID-19 disease admitted in intensive care units are 12,570.75 (USD 119.16) and 59,369.42 (USD 562.79). ConclusionCOVID-19 case management costs are substantial. Unit costs for asymptomatic and mild to moderate COVID-19 patients in home-based care is 4-fold lower compared institutional care of the same patients. Kenya will not only need to mobilize substantial resources to finance COVID-19 case management but also explore additional service delivery adaptations that will reduce unit costs.

Revealing the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Policy makers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. Data suitable for this purpose are scant. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 34 - 41% of residents infected, and will peak elsewhere in the country within 2-3 months. Despite this penetration, reported severe cases and deaths are low. Our analysis suggests the COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya may be far less than initially feared. A similar scenario across sub-Saharan Africa would have implications for balancing the consequences of restrictions with those of COVID-19.