Análisis ajustado de la mortalidad operatoria en cirugía cardíaca de adultos en Uruguay; 14 años de aplicación y validación del EuroSCORE I ajustado por el Fondo Nacional de Recursos / Adjusted analysis of operative mortality in cardiac surgery of adults in Uruguay, 14 years of application and validation of EuroSCORE I by the Fondo Nacional de Recursos / Análise ajustada da mortalidade operatória em cirurgia cardíaca de adultos no Uruguai, 14 anos de aplicação e validação do EuroSCORE I pelo Fondo Nacional de Recursos

Introducción: la mortalidad posoperatoria ha sido el indicador principal de los resultados a corto y mediano plazo en la evaluación de la cirugía cardíaca. Una forma de analizar dicho evento es mediante los modelos de ajuste del riesgo que identifican variables que predicen su ocurrencia. Uno de los más utilizados es el EuroSCORE I que pro-porciona la probabilidad de morir de cada individuo y que está constituido por 18 variables de riesgo. Objetivos: presentar los resultados de la aplicación y la validación del modelo EuroSCORE I en Uruguay entre los años 2003 y 2020. Metodología: inicialmente se desarrolló una validación externa del EuroSCORE I en la población uruguaya adulta tomando como población de referencia la intervenida entre los años 2003 y 2006. Una vez que se validó el EuroSCORE I, este se aplicó prospectivamente durante los años 2007 al 2020 en su versión original y con el ajuste desarrollado con población del período 2003-2006. Resultados: la aplicación del modelo original encontró que hubo 5 años en los que la razón de mortalidad observada y esperada (MO/ME) fue significativamente mayor que 1. En el período 2007-2020 el EuroScore I no calibró en 6 oca-siones, y fue aplicada la versión ajustada en la evaluación de las instituciones de medicina altamente especializada. La aplicación del modelo ajustado mostró una buena calibración para el período 2007-2020, salvo en el año 2013, y mostró una buena discriminación (área bajo la curva ROC) en todo el período evaluado. Conclusiones: las escalas de riesgo son herramientas metodológicas y estadísticas que tienen gran utilidad para la toma de decisiones en salud. Este trabajo tiene como fortaleza el de presentar datos nacionales aplicando un modelo de riesgo ampliamente utilizado en todo el mundo, lo que nos permite comparar nuestros resultados con los obte-nidos a nivel internacional (EuroSCORE I logístico original) y, por otro lado, evaluar la performance comparativa interna a lo largo de un largo período de tiempo (EuroSCORE I logístico ajustado). Para el futuro resta el desafío de comparar estos resultados, ya sea con un modelo propio o con otros internacionales de elaboración más reciente.

Introduction: postoperative mortality has been the main indicator of short- and medium-term results in the eva luation of cardiac surgery. One way to analyze such outcomes is through risk adjustment models that identify varia bles that predict the occurrence. One of the most used is the EuroSCORE I, which provides the probability of death for each individual and is made up of 18 risk variables. Objectives: present the results of the application and validation of the EuroSCORE I model in Uruguay between 2003 and 2020. Methodology: initially, an external validation of the EuroSCORE I was developed in the Uruguayan adult popula tion, taking as reference population the intervened population between 2003 and 2006. Once the EuroSCORE I was validated, it was applied prospectively during the years 2007 to 2020 in its original version and with the adjustment developed with the population of the period 2003 to 2006. Results: the application of the original model found that there were 5 years during which the observed versus ex pected mortality ratio (OM/ME) was significantly greater than 1. In the period 2007 to 2020, the EuroScore I did not calibrate on 6 occasions, the adjusted version being applied in the evaluation of highly specialized medicine institu tions. The application of the adjusted model showed a good calibration for the period 2007-2020 except in the year 2013 and showed good discrimination (area under the ROC curve) throughout the evaluated period. Conclusions: risk scales are methodological and statistical tools that are very useful for decision-making in health care. This work has the strength of presenting national data applying a risk model widely used across the world, which allows it to be compare with results at an international level (original logistical Euroscore I) and, on the other hand, to evaluate the internal comparative performance over long period of time (adjusted logistic Euroscore I). Up next is the challenge of comparing these results either with our own model or with other more recent international ones.

Introdução: a mortalidade pós-operatória tem sido o principal indicador de resultados a curto e médio prazo na avaliação da cirurgia cardíaca. Uma forma de analisar esse evento é por meio de modelos de ajuste de risco que identificam variáveis que predizem a ocorrência do evento. Um dos mais utilizados é o EuroSCORE I, que fornece a probabilidade de morrer para cada indivíduo e é composto por 18 variáveis de risco. Objetivos: apresentar os resultados da aplicação e validação do modelo EuroSCORE I no Uruguai entre os anos de 2003 e 2020. Metodologia: inicialmente, foi realizada uma validação externa do EuroSCORE I na população uruguaia adulta, tomando como referência a população operada entre 2003 e 2006. Uma vez validado o EuroSCORE I, foi aplicado prospectivamente durante os anos de 2007 a 2020 em sua versão original e com o ajuste desenvolvido com a popu lação do período de 2003 a 2006. Resultados: a aplicação do modelo original constatou que houve 5 anos em que a razão de mortalidade observada versus esperada (MO/ME) foi significativamente maior que 1. No período de 2007 a 2020, o EuroScore I não calibrou em 6 ocasiões, sendo a versão ajustada aplicada na avaliação de instituições médicas altamente especializadas. A aplicação do modelo ajustado mostrou uma boa calibração para o período 2007-2020 exceto no ano de 2013 e apre sentou boa discriminação (área sob a curva ROC) em todo o período avaliado. Conclusões: as escalas de risco são ferramentas metodológicas e estatísticas muito úteis para a tomada de decisões em saúde. O ponto forte deste trabalho é apresentar dados nacionais aplicando um modelo de risco amplamente uti lizado em todo o mundo, que permite comparar com resultados a nível internacional (original Logistic Euroscore I) e, por outro lado, avaliar o comparativo interno desempenho durante um longo período de tempo (Euroscore Logístico I ajustado). Para o futuro, fica o desafio de comparar esses resultados, seja com um modelo próprio ou com outros internacionais de elaboração mais recente.

Validation of the EuroSCORE model in patients undergoing heart surgery in Regional Hospital of High Speciality of Bajio / Validación del modelo EuroSCORE en pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardiaca en el Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad del Bajío

Abstract: Introduction: EuroSCORE is a probabilistic model with good performance in the prognosis of mortality in heart surgery in many latitudes. It is recommendable to validate it in hospitals where it is employed. Objective: To validate the EuroSCORE model in adult patients at the Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad del Bajío (HRAEB) of León, Guanajuato, Mexico. Material and methods: We conducted an observational transversal, and retrospective study, accomplishing this through the review of the clinical files of patients submitted to heart surgery with and without extracorporeal circulation pump from 01/01/2008 to 12/31/2013 at the HRAEB. This included mortality up to hospital discharge, utilizing the on-line calculator of the EuroSCORE program to estimate risk of death. In order to validate the EuroSCORE model, we assessed discrimination and calibration through the Area Under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and χ2 test with Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit, respectively. Results: A total of 342 patients, aged 50.02 ± 16.66 years, 181 males (52.9%) and 161 women (47.1%). The area under the ROC curve of the additive model was 0.763, and of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 5.30, with p = 0.62. The area under the ROC curve of the logistic model was 0.761 and of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, 8.78, with p = 0.36. Conclusion: The EuroSCORE model is a reliable score for estimating the probabilities of death in adult patients submitted to heart surgery with or without the pump at the HRAEB.

Resumen: Introducción: EuroSCORE es un modelo probabilístico con buen desempeño en el pronóstico de mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca en muchas latitudes. Es recomendable validarlo en los hospitales donde se emplea. Objetivo: Validar el modelo EuroSCORE en pacientes adultos en el Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad del Bajío (HRAEB) de León, Guanajuato, México. Material y métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional transversal y retrospectivo, que se completó con la revisión de los expedientes clínicos de pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con y sin bomba de circulación extracorpórea desde el 01/01/2008 hasta el 31/12/2013 en el HRAEB. Esto incluyó la mortalidad hasta el alta hospitalaria, utilizando la calculadora en línea del programa EuroSCORE para estimar el riesgo de muerte. Para validar el modelo EuroSCORE, evaluamos la discriminación y la calibración a través de la curva de características de operación del receptor (ROC) y la prueba de χ2 con la efectividad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L), respectivamente. Resultados: Un total de 342 pacientes, de 50.02 ± 16.66 años, 181 hombres (52.9%) y 161 mujeres (47.1%). El área bajo la curva ROC del modelo aditivo fue de 0.763, y la de la prueba Hosmer-Lemeshow fue de 5.30, con p = 0.62. El área bajo la curva ROC del modelo logístico fue 0.761 y de la prueba Hosmer-Lemeshow, 8.78, con p = 0.36. Conclusión: El modelo EuroSCORE es una herramienta confiable para estimar las probabilidades de muerte en pacientes adultos sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con o sin bomba en el HRAEB.

Analysis of predictive efficacy of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE for patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery in single center / 天津医药

@#Objective TocomparethepredictiveefficacyofEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREinthepostoperative mortalityofChinesepatientsunderwentcoronaryarterybypassgrafting(CABG). Methods Theclinicaldataof4507 patientswithCABGatourdepartmentinJanuary2011andApril2015wereretrospectivelyanalyzed.Cardiovascularrisk stratificationwasperformedonpatientsusingEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCORE.PatientsweredividedintoⅠ,Ⅱ,ⅢandⅣ groupsaccordingtothepredictedfatalityrates.Themortalityrateswerepredictedinallgroupsofpatientsrespectively. Predictive effectiveness was analyzed by the analysis of discernment and calibration force. Results The in-hospital mortalityratewas1.35%inallpatients,whilethemeanmortalityratepredictedbyEuroSCOREⅡwas1.470%±1.215% (95%CI：1.43-1.50), and predicted by SinoSCORE was 2.860%±3.454% (95% CI：2.76-2.96). The AUC values of EuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREwere0.728and0.716.ItwasfoundthatthecalibrationdegreeofEuroSCOREⅡwaspoor andSinoSCOREwasacceptabledetectedbyHosmer-LemeshowTest.EuroSCOREⅡunderestimatedthemortalityratesof groupⅣ,butoverestimatedmortalityratesinothergroupsofpatients.SinoSCOREunderestimatedmortalityratesofpatients ingroupⅠandoverestimatedmortalityratesinothergroupsofpatients.EuroSCOREⅡonlyachievedgooddiscrimination forpatientsofgroupⅠ(AUC=0.707),andSinoSCOREachievedgooddiscriminationforpatientsofgroupⅡ(AUC=0.754). EuroSCOREⅡoverestimatedthemortalityrateintheisolatedCABGgroupandunderestimatedmortalityratesinpatients withothercardiacsurgeries.SinoSCOREoverestimatedmortalityratesingroupⅡ.TheAUCvaluesofEuroSCOREⅡand SinoSCOREwere0.694and0.687inisolatedCABGgroup.TheAUCvaluesofEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREwere0.772 and0.669inCABGcombinedwithothercardiacsurgeries.Conclusion EuroSCOREⅡhasagoodpredictiveefficacyin theentiregroupofpatientsandⅠ,ⅡandⅢgroups,buthasapoorperformanceingroupⅣ.SinoSCOREoverestimates mortalityratesintheentiregroupandⅠ,ⅡandⅢgroups,anditunderestimatesmortalityratesinpatientsofgroupⅠ. Theapplicationandestablishmentofriskmodelsshouldfocusondifferentheartdiseasesanddifferentrisklevels,andthe modelingmethodofestablishedrisksystemsneedstobeimproved.

Prognosis and Risk Factors of PCI-treated Senile Patients with Unprotected Left Main Coronary Artery Disease: A Follow-up Study / 医学研究杂志

Objective To study the prognosis and risk factors of senile patients with unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease treated with PCI.Methods Patients with ULMCA undergoing PCI from a single center were enrolled in the study.All patients were older than 60.The baseline characteristics were collected and the prognosis and risk factors of the patients were followed-up.All the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) were evaluated throughout the follow-up period.Based on those data,Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted and Cox multivariate regression analysis was performed to assess the prognosis and identify risk factors.Results A total of 182 consecutive patients were recruited and followed up with a mean follow-up time of 21.5 (13,36.5) months and an estimated median MACCE-free survival time of 66 months by K-M method.During the follow up,all-cause mortality,non-fatal myocardial infarction,non-fatal cerebrovascular events and target vessel revascularization rates were 6.59％,0.55％,0.55％ and 15.93％ respectively,the incidence of all MACCE was 23.63％.A percentage of 72.09 of the MACCEs had occurred in the first 2 years after the PCI.According to the multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis,diameter of left main stent (HR =0.37,95％ CI:0.17-0.82,P =0.014),bifurcation lesion (HR =1.92,95％ CI:1.O1-3.62,P =0.045),smoking index ＞ 50pack / year (HR =3.78;95％ CI:1.29-11.05,P =0.015) were the independent risk factors of MACCE.EuroSCORE Ⅱ ≥2％ (HR =3.96,95％ CI:1.15-13.61,P =0.029) was the independent risk factor of all-cause death.Conclusion The prognosis of PCI-treated ULMCA disease is generally favorable.Most MACCEs occurred in the first 2 years after the PCI.Small left main stents diameter,bifurcation lesions,smoking index ＞ 50 pack/year and EuroSCORE Ⅱ ≥2％ were the risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with ULMCA disease.

Comparative Study of One-stop Hybrid Technology, Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Treating Patients With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease / 中国循环杂志

Objective: To compare the middle and long term clinical outcomes of one-stop hybrid coronary revascularization, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in treating the patients with multivessel coronary artery disease; to explore the optimal indication of one-stop hybrid technology. Methods: Our research included in 3 groups: Hybrid group, n=141 patients received one-stop hybrid coronary revascularization in our hospital from 2006-06 to 2010-16. Meanwhile, 5797 patients received CABG and 4254 received PCI, the major pre-operative risk factors were studied by Logistic regression analysis to calculate propensity score, adjacent matching was used to respectively select 141 subjects from CABG and PCI patients to make 1:1 match with Hybrid group as CABG group and PCI group. EuroSCORE and SYNTAX score were used to make risk stratification in all 3 groups. By EuroSCORE system: low risk ≤ 2, medium risk (3-5) and high risk ≥ 6; by SYNTAX score system: low risk ≤ 24, medium risk (25-29) and high risk ≥ 30. The incidence of major adverse cardiac/cerebral vascular events (MACCE) was compared among 3 groups at different risk stratifications. Results: The mean follow-up time was 4.5 years up to 2015-01. The overall incidence of MACCE was lower in Hybrid group (9.9％) than PCI group (27.7％), P<0.001; while it was similar between Hybrid group and CABG group (19.1％), P=0.150. By EuroSCORE stratification, the incidence of MACCE in low risk and medium risk patients were similar among 3 groups; while in high risk patients, the incidence was lower in Hybrid group than both CABG group (P=0.017) and PCI group (P<0.001). By SYNTAX score stratification, the incidence of MACCE in low risk and medium risk patients were similar among 3 groups; while in high risk patients, the incidence was lower in Hybrid group than PCI group (P<0.001), it was similar between Hybrid group and CABG group (P=0.355). Conclusion: One-stop hybrid technology had the better middle and long term outcomes for treating multivessel coronary artery disease patients with high risk stratification, which provided an alternative strategy in clinical practice.

EuroSCORE subestima el riesgo de mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca valvular de población mexicana / EuroSCORE underestimate the mortality risk in cardiac valve surgery of Mexican population

Resumen: Objetivo: El European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) estratifica el riesgo quirúrgico en cirugía cardiaca de manera fácil y accesible; se validó en Norteamérica con buenos resultados, pero en muchos países de Latinoamérica se utiliza rutinariamente sin validación previa. Nuestro objetivo fue validar EuroSCORE en pacientes con cirugía valvular en el Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (INCICh) de México. Métodos: Se aplicaron los modelos de EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico para predecir mortalidad en pacientes con cirugía valvular de marzo de 2004 a marzo de 2008. Se usó la prueba de bondad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow para evaluar la calibración. Se calculó el área bajo la curva ROC para determinar la discriminación. Resultados: Se incluyeron 1,188 pacientes con edades de 51.3 ± 14.5 años, 52% mujeres. Hubo diferencias significativas en la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo entre la población del INCICh y del EuroSCORE. La mortalidad total fue de 9.68% con predichas de 5% y 5.6% por EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico. De acuerdo a EuroSCORE aditivo tenían riesgo bajo 11.3%, intermedio 52.9% y alto 35.9%; para estos grupos la mortalidad fue de 0.7%, 6.4% y 17.4% contra las predichas de 2%, 3.9% y 7.64%. La prueba de Hosmer-Lemeshow tuvo una p < 0.001 para ambos modelos, y el área bajo la curva ROC de 0.707 y de 0.694 para EuroSCORE aditivo y logístico. Conclusión: En el INCICh el 88.7% de los pacientes con cirugía valvular tuvieron riesgo intermedio a alto y EuroSCORE subestimó el riesgo de mortalidad.

Abstract: Objective: The EuroSCORE (European System for cardiac operative risk evaluation) stratifies cardiac risk surgery in easy and accessible manner; it was validated in North America with good results but in many countries of Latin America is used routinely without prior validation. Our objective was to validate the EuroSCORE in patients with cardiac valve surgery at the Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (INCICh) in México. Methods: EuroSCORE additive and logistic models were used to predict mortality in adults undergoing cardiac valve surgery from march 2004 to march 2008. The goodness of fit test of Hosmer-Lemeshow was used to evaluate the calibration. The area under the ROC curve was calculated to determinate discrimination. Results: We included 1188 patients with ages of 51.3 ± 14.5 years, 52% women. There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors among the INCICh and the EuroSCORE populations. Total mortality was 9.68% versus 5% and 5.6% predicted by additive and logistic EuroSCORE. According to additive EuroSCORE the risk was low in 11.3%, intermediate in 52.9% and high in 35.9%; for these groups the mortality was .7%, 6.34% and 17.4% against those predicted of 2%, 3.9% and 7.64%. Hosmer-Lemeshow test had a P < .001 for both models and the area under the ROC curve was .707 and .694 for additive and logistic EuroSCORE. Conclusion: In the INCICh 88.7% of patients with cardiac valve surgery had intermediate to high risk and EuroSCORE underestimated the risk of mortality.

The validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in predicting the mid-term outcome of patients undergoing Sun's procedure for Stanford type A dissection / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

Objective EuroSCORE is a widely used objective risk scoring model.The aim of this study was to evaluate the validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in predicting mid-term survival after total aortic arch replacement with stented elephant trunk implantation(sun' s procedure) for Stanford Type A aortic dissection.Methods Total 90 patients entered the study randomly.All the patients underwent aortic surgery using total aortic arch replacement with stented elephant trunk implantation (Sun's procedure).The patients were divided into three groups based on the predicting mortality by EuroSCORE Ⅱ.Ggroup 1:0 ＜:P ≤ 5 ％,Group 2:5 ％ ＜ P ≤ 10％,Group 3:P ＞ 10％.Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the long term survival of three groups.Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to test discrimination of the EuroSCORE.Calibration was assessed with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-offit statistic.Results 87 patients were followed umil October,2013.The mean follow-up time was(33.32 ± 11.11) months.Total 5 patients died during the follow-up time.Three patients died in group 1,2 patients died in group 2 and 1 in group 3.There was no statistical difference for the mid-term survival rate between 3 groups (P =0.054).Conclusion Although EuroSCORE Ⅱ is the newest risk model for cardiac surgery,it is not accurate when it is applied for predicting mid-term survival after aortic surgery.A new risk evaluating system specially designed for aortic surgery should be developed in the future.

Cirugía cardíaca estratificada por EuroSCORE: Supervivencia a largo plazo / Cardiac surgery stratified by EuroSCORE: Long-term survival

El objetivo fue explorar la utilidad del EuroSCORE logístico para estratificar las curvas de supervivencia alejada en una muestra de pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardíaca. Se analizaron los resultados a 8 años de 390 pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardíaca entre 2003-2004, de acuerdo al puntaje inicial del EuroSCORE logístico, divididos en tres grupos de riesgo: < 5%, 5-14.9% y ≥15%. La supervivencia por Kaplan-Meier a 8 años de la cirugía coronaria dividida por el EuroSCORE fue 83.5% para un riesgo inicial < 5%, 65.2% para un riesgo inicial entre 5 y 14.9% y 40.0% para un riesgo inicial ≥15% (p = 0.000); mientras que de la cirugía valvular o combinada fue 86.1%, 60.0% y 18.2% respectivamente (p = 0.0000). Para el total de pacientes, el área ROC fue 0.759 (p = 0.000), para un EuroSCORE <5% fue 0.689 (p = 0.002), entre 5 y 14.9% fue 0.544 (p = 0.499) y para ≥15% fue 0.725 (p = 0.067). En conclusión, el EuroSCORE logístico permitió estratificar adecuadamente las curvas de supervivencia alejada en una muestra de pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardíaca, tanto en la cirugía coronaria como en la valvular o combinada. La estratificación de los resultados a largo plazo separados por riesgo constituye una forma razonable de presentar el pronóstico.

The objective was to explore the usefulness of the logistic EuroSCORE to stratify the long-term survival curves in a sample of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The 8-year survival of 390 patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2003 and 2004 was analyzed, according to the basal value of the EuroSCORE, patients were classified into three risk groups: < 5%, 5-14.9% and ≥15%. Eight-years Kaplan-Meier's survival after coronary artery bypass grafting divided by the basal EuroSCORE was 83.5% for a basal risk < 5%, 65.2% for a basal risk 5 to 14.9% and 40.0% for a basal risk ≥15% (p = 0.000); whereas for valve or combined surgery it was 86.1%, 60.0% and 18.2% respectively (p = 0.0000). For all patients, ROC area was 0.759 (p=0.000), for a EuroSCORE <5% it was 0.689 (p = 0.002), between 5 and 14.9% it was 0.544 (p = 0.499) and for ≥15% it was 0.725 (p = 0.067). In conclusion, the logistic EuroSCORE allowed properly stratify the long-term survival curves in a sample of patients undergoing cardiac surgery, both the coronary and valve or combined surgery. Long-term results stratified by risk are a reasonable way to present late postoperative survival.

Usefulness of JapanSCORE—Comparative Study of the Usefulness of the JapanSCORE and the Logistic EuroSCORE / 日本心臓血管外科学会雑誌

Risk analysis models are becoming more important in various aspects of the clinical setting. We have used the logistic EuroSCORE as a risk analysis model, but there is divergence between the model and actual clinical reality in our country. The Japan Score is a risk model based on the Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database and it is considered to be better reflect from Japanese clinical results. We compared the logistic EuroScore (ES) and Japan Score (JS) and their predictive accuracy, using our clinical results. Between October 2006 and June 2011, 733 operations suitable for evaluation by the Japan Score were performed at our institute. Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was performed in 151 cases, valve surgery (Valve) in 346 cases and aortic surgery (Aorta) in 236 cases. In these cases we calculated 30-day mortality using the EuroSCORE and JapanSCORE and compared the results and prediction accuracy, by calculating the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). We also calculated 30-day mortality and morbidity by the JapanSCORE and analyzed it by the same method. In the entire group, logistic 30-day mortality by ES and JS was 7.28 and 4.05% respectively. The AUC was 0.740 and 0.806, while 30-day mortality and morbidity calculated by JS was 17.72% and the AUC was 0.646. In the CABG group the 30-day mortality by ES and JS was 5.7 and 3.18% respectively, the AUC was 0.636 and 0.770, the 30-day mortality and morbidity was 13.37% and the AUC was 0.631. In the Valve group 30-day mortality by ES and JS was 6.00 and 3.79% respectively. The AUC was 0.715 and 0.794, 30-day mortality and morbidity was 17.54% and the AUC was 0.606. In the Aorta group 30-day mortality was 10.17 and 4.99% respectively. The AUC was 0.720 and 0.827. The 30-day mortality and morbidity was 20.83% and the AUC was 0.640. The 30-day mortality calculated by JS was significantly lower than that of ES (<i>p</i><0.001). The prediction accuracy of both of the ES and the JS was satisfactory but the prediction accuracy of JS was better than that of the ES. The prediction accuracy of the logistic 30-day mortality and morbidity were not as accurate as 30-day mortality. JS was a good risk analysis model not only for prediction of surgical results but also for improving surgical outcome.

Validation of EuroSCORE II in predicating in-hospital mortality among Chinese patients undergoing heart valve surgery / 第二军医大学学报

Objective To assess the performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE I) in predicating in-hospital mortality among Chinese patients undergoing heart valve surgery at our center. Methods From January 2006 to December 2011, 3 479 consecutive patients who underwent heart valve surgery at our center were enrolled in this study and they were scored by the original EuroSCORE(addtive EuroSCORE and logistic EuroSCORE) and EuroSCORE II model. The actual mortality rate of patients was compared with those of the predicted ones. The performances of the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II model were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test. The discrimination validity of prediction was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results There were 112 in-hospital deaths among the 3 479 patients, with an in-hospitalmortality rate of 3. 2%, compared to the predicted mortality rates of 3. 84% by the additive EuroSCORE (H-L: P = 0. 013, suggesting a higher prediction),3. 33% by the logistic EuroSCORE (H-L: P= 0. 08, suggesting good consistency), and 2.52% by the EuroSCORE II (H-L: P<0. 0001, suggesting a lower prediction). EuroSCORE II showed a good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing single valve surgery (H-L: P = 0. 103, area under the ROC curve of 0. 792) and a poor calibration for patients undergoing multiple valve surgery (H-L: P<0. 0001, area under the ROC curve of 0. 605). The discriminative powers of the predictions by additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, andEuroSCORE I were poor for the entire cohort, with the areas under the ROC curve being 0.684, 0. 673, and 0. 685, respectively. Conclusion EuroSCORE II has abetter accuracy for predicting mortality of patients undergoing single valve surgery, but not for those undergoing multiple valve surgery, which should be considered in clinical practice.

Validation of the EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM in adult patients undergoing aortic valve replacement / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

Objective The aim of the study was to analyze the predictive value of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation score (EuroSCORE) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality (STS-PROM) in -dult patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR).Methods We carried out a retrospective statistical analysis on 521 adult patients undergoing AVR between 1999 and 2008 in Changhai hospital.Patients with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting were also included.Excluded from this study were patients having surgery for congenital heart defects,aneurysm of thoracic aorta and atrial fibrillation.Operative mortality was defined as death before discharge from the hospital.The mortality risk calculation of EuroSCORE and STS-PROM for aortic valve procedures was performed by the online available EuroSCORE or STS score calculator.Based on the additive EuroSCORE risk calculation,patients were divided into low-risk,medium-risk and high-risk groups.The valuation of three different algorithms depended on the assessment of two features:calibration and discrimination.A comparison of observed and predicted mortality rates was also performed.Results A total of 521 patients were identified as having undergone aortic valve replacement.In-hospital mortality was 4％ (21 cases) overall.The expected mortality for the additive,logistic EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM was 3.36％,2.82％ and 1.25％,respectively.The observed to expected ratio was 1.2 for additive EuroSCORE,1.43 for logistic EuroSCORE and 3.23 for STS-PROM.The STS-PROM underpredicted observed mortality significantly ( P ＜ 0.01 ) and showed poor calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality in the entire cohort,medium- and high-risk subgroups.The logistic EuroSCORE underpredicted observed mortality in the mediumrisk subgroup ( P ＜ 0.05 ).EuroSCORE underpredicted in-hospital mortality in the high-risk subgroup with the observed-expected mortality rate of 1.84 for additive EuroSCORE and 1.46 for logistic EuroSCORE.The EuroSCORE in three subgroups showed poor discrimination in predicting mortality as well as the STS-PROM did in the medium- and high-risk subgroups ( ROC ＜ 0.7).Conclusion Both the EuroSCORE and the STS-PROM give an imprecise prediction for individual operative risk in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement in our study.These algorithms seem unsuitable to identify a high-risk patient population undergoing isolated AVR.It is necessary to construct a risk stratification model for valve surgery according to the profiles of Chinese patients.

Validation of the Chinese system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (SinoSCORE) in senior heart surgery patients / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

Objective To validate of the Chinese system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (SinoSCORE) in senior heart surgery patients. Methods Data from 43 Chinese Medical Centers in the period January 2004 through December 2008 were analyzed on 9445 heart surgery patients aged over 65 years. Firstly, risk factors of this series and database of SinoSCORE were compared. Then, the additive score of each patients and the discrimination and calibration of sinoSCORE in elder patients were calculated. Results There were significant differences between the risk factors of patients from two groups. Howerever,the SinoSCORE was able to predict the in-hospital mortality of senior patients with good discrimination ( Hosmer-Lemeshow test,P =0.45 ) and calibration (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73, P ＜ 0.01 ). Conclusion SinoSCORE was able to predict the in-hospital mortality of senior heart surgery patients.

The prediction of early mortality in off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery: SinoSCORE versus EuroSCORE / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

Objective To compare the validation of the Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation ( SinoSCORE ) with the Europe an system for cardiac operative risk evaluation ( EuroSCORE ) in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery in China. Methods Data of patients who underwent OPCAB between 2004 and 2005 in the Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study were collected. The end point of the study was postoperative in-hospital death. Predicted mortality were calculated using the SinoSCORE and the logistic EuroSCORE, and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. Results 73 of 4920 patients died in hospital and the observed mortality was 1.48%. The predicted mortality calculated by the SinoSCORE and the EuroSCORE was 2.73% and 4. 13% respectively. For SinoSCORE the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was non-significant ( P = 0. 636 ) and the area under ROC curve was 0. 794. For the EuroSCORE the HL test was significant( P = 0.01 ) and the area under ROC curve was 0. 756. Both the SinoSCORE and the logistic EuroSCORE provides good discrimination, but the SinoSCORE showed better calibration than EuroSCORE, that is, both the two models were significantly correlated to postoperative death, but SinoSCORE is more accurate than EuroSCORE at predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality. Conclusion SinoSCORE seems to be more suitable than EuroSCORE in predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality for OPCAB patients in China.

SinoSCORE can predict the early mortality of patients with valve surgery / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

Objective To validate the predictive value of SinoSCORE in patients undergoing valve surgery. Methods The clinical data of 13 ±353 patients undergone valve surgery from 43 Chinese cardiac centers between January 2007 and December 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. The score values of all patients were calculated according to the SinoSCORE model.The calibration was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. Area under the receiver operator curves ( ROC )was calculated to evaluate the model' s discriminatory ability. Results The mean age of the total patients was (48.0 ± 11.7 )years. Most of the patients were women (58% versus 42% ). The data contained 2505 cases of aortic valve surgery, 6996 cases of mitral valve surgery and 4002 cases of double valve surgery ( concomitant aortic and mitral valve surgery). The area under the ROC (0.74,95% confidence interval 0.70 -0.78 ) revealed that the SinoSCORE possessed strong discriminatory power between high- and low risk patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (P = 0.47 ) validated the good predictive ability of SinoSCORE. Conclusion SinoSCORE can accurately predict the early mortality in patients with valve surgery. It is a good and well-validated risk stratification model applicable to patients with valve surgery.

Is EuroSCORE applicable to Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery have different demographics, clinical profile as well as risk profile, compared to the western population. The purpose of this study was to validate the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) risk stratification model in Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a single cardiac center. Data from 1000 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery (coronary artery bypass grafting or valve surgery) were prospectively collected as per the EuroSCORE model. The model's validity was assessed on the basis of its calibration power (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discriminatory power [area under receiver operating characteristic curve]. The patients were divided into three risk groups on the basis of their EuroSCORE. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed a good calibration power (P = 0.73) and the area under the ROC curve was 0.8278, suggesting a good discriminative power. The predicted mortality was similar to observed mortality in low- and moderate-risk patients but the observed mortality in high-risk patients (15.6%) was double that of predicted mortality (7.5%). The risk factors prevalent in European population were not observed in Indian population. EuroSCORE accurately predicts mortality in low and moderate-risk Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery but is less predictive for high-risk Indian patients. Updating and improvisation of EuroSCORE by incorporation of risk factors associated with rheumatic valvular heart disease which is more prevalent in India, may enable it to accurately predict mortality in high-risk patients also.

Study on the efficiency of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)in predicting in-hospital mortality of the patients with percutaneous coronary intervention / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To investigate the efficiency of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation(EuroSCORE)in predicting in-hospital mortality for the patients after percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI). Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on the patients who had undergone PCI in our hospital since year 2005 to 2007. We used both cumulative EuroSCORE score and logistic EuroSCORE to predict the in-hospital morality and to analyze the correlation between the predicted mortality and the actual mortality. Results According to the additive EuroSCORE, we divided the patients into three groups, the additive EuroSCORE 0-2 were divided into low-risk group,3-5 were divided into mid-risk group and ≥6 into high-risk group.The actual in-hospital mortality rates were 0%, 0.47% and 6.09% respectively. The EuroSCORE model demonstrated an overall relation between the EuroSCORE ranking and the incidence of in-hospital mortality(P<0.001). Results from the multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the EuroSCORE was an independent in-hospital mortality predictor(P<0.01). Conclusion The EuroSCORE risk model and the in-hospital mortality were significantly correlated, indicating that the model was a promising method for predicting the in-hospital mortality of PCI patients.

Comparison of Clinical Outcomes Using EuroSCORE for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting with or without Cardiopulmonary Bypass / 日本心臓血管外科学会雑誌

We reviewed 223 cases of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during the past 6 years, and used the EuroSCORE to assess the differences in clinical outcomes between off-pump CABG (OPCAB) and on-pump CABG (conventional CABG: CCABG). After March 2000, our first choice has been OPCAB, with CCABG selected only for cases with unstable hemodynamics. The total of 223 isolated CABG cases consisted of 129 OPCAB and 94 CCABG, but after March 2000, 94 OPCAB and 42 CCABG were performed. Mean EusoSCORE was 5.8 for OPCAB and 4.1 for CCABG, and corresponding expected survival rates were 7.20% and 5.04%. The 3 cases of hospital death (mortality, 1.3%) all belonged to the earlier CCABG groups and were not related to cardiac death. After March 2000, no hospital deaths occurred in either group. Midterm results showed 5 deaths, but these were not related to cardiac death, either. There were no significant differences between the 2 groups in terms of hospital complications other than long mechanical ventilation time, which was markedly longer only for the OPCAB groups (<i>p</i><0.01). Mean number of grafts was significantly high for patients in the CCABG groups (OPCAB 2.1 vs. CCABG 2.8; <i>p</i><0.05). We have therefore been using OPCAB for high-risk cases, and midterm results of our CABG patients were satisfactory.